On Saturday, I brought you Goldman’s “Top 10 Picks For 2017,” ten trade ideas which will likely crash and burn in the new year as the Squid muppetizes a few more clients and reinforces its reputation as a contrarian indicator.
Of course we can’t blame Goldman for every bad “pick.” After all, “picks” by their very nature depend on an element of randomness and randomness is, well, random.
For those interested, I thought I’d bring you Goldman’s “Top 10 Themes For 2017,” a list presumably less dependent on chance. Take it with the usual grain of salt…
OurTopTen themes are:
- Expected returns: Only slightly higher
- US fiscal policy: A pro-growth agenda
- US trade policy: Concerns are likely overdone
- EM risk: ‘Trump tantrum’ is temporary
- Trump and trade: Hedge with RMB
- Monetary policy: Focusing the toolkit on credit creation
- Corporate revenue growth recession: Signs of inflection
- Inflation: Moving higher across DM
- The next credit cycle: Kinder and gentler
- The ‘Yellen Call’ 2.0: Now with ‘contingent knock-in’
