Melt-Up Mechanics
In the lead-up to the September FOMC meeting, professional investors polled for BofA’s monthly fund
Should’ve Bought In Bulk
The fortunate among us have a tendency to extrapolate our own economic circumstances onto everyone
Powell Risks Prejudgment Error With Flippant November Promise
Now that Jerome Powell has (wisely) taken out a 50bps insurance policy against a softening
‘We Need To Be Careful Not To Cut Too Much, Too Fast’
“It’s vital,” Andrew Bailey said Thursday, after the Bank of England left rates on hold
Recalibrating
Jerome Powell went out of his way on Wednesday to frame the Fed’s 50bps rate
50. Sans Bowman
They went big. Two months of high drama crescendoed Wednesday in a 50bps rate cut
Over And Out
“You threw out your pager, right? Because –” “Yeah, yeah, of course. Did you see
Construction, Rates And The Misnomer That Is ‘Affordable’
Thank lower rates? Maybe. Probably. Sure. New construction data released ahead of the Fed on
‘It Doesn’t Make A Difference’
Jamie Dimon, man of the people? No. Definitely not. Dimon personifies American banking in a
Paging Hassan Nasrallah
“Is your pager hot? Because my pager’s hot.” We talk a lot about how dangerous
Cutting The Left-Tail
Evercore’s Ed Hyman gets it. “If they don’t do 50 tomorrow I’ll be shocked,” Hyman,
Profits, Policy And Priorities
One narrative says corporate profits have virtually never been healthier. It’s hard to argue the
‘Nervous Bulls’ Almost Certain Of Soft Landing
Cash levels ticked down and growth expectations rebounded tentatively from an eight-month low, helping to
US Retail Sales Leave FOMC Narrative Unchanged
Mercifully — because the Fed and traders scarcely needed any additional variables to incorporate while
The Fate Of The World
“It’s truly amazing how the fate of the entire world seems to rest on whether
What’s To Become Of The Stocks?
But what does Mike Wilson think? “Where is Ja?!” (Somebody will get it.) Credit where
Reflexivity Revisited: What Happens If The Fed Disappoints?
I spent some time late last week talking about the Fed’s reflexivity dynamic with markets,
Gamblers Gonna Gamble
You gotta love it. Following last week’s US CPI report, all-knowing, efficient markets were convinced
Everything The Fed Should Consider For The September FOMC Meeting
On Wednesday, the Fed will answer your questions about life, the universe and everything. Or
Don’t Forget The Data
Don’t forget the data. It’s a big week for monetary policy, with the Fed set
Bank Of Japan Rate Guidance Eyed After Chaos. Bank Of England Faces Big QT Decision
The Fed’s not the only game in town this week. On Friday, the Bank of
Did China Just Lose The Growth Target?
How long before they stop reporting the numbers? I’m just joking. I think. But if
Stock Funds Just Saw Their First Outflow Since April
Don’t look now, but global equities just saw their first weekly outflow since April. $3.7
Reflexivity And Risky Ventures
Market participants don’t fully appreciate the Fed’s reflexivity “problem.” I put problem in scare quotes
Demographics Matter
Demographics matter. A lot. And in everything. Elections are no exception. In fact, elections are
It’s Gotta Be 50, Jay: The Case For A Half-Point Fed Cut
“Hey, Jay. Why don’t you just get started?” Asking for Bill Dudley. With just days
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