Goldman Cuts US Recession Odds, ‘Undoing’ SVB-Inspired Revision
Good news! The increase in US recession odds associated with SVB’s collapse was a false
‘Worst Liquidity Contraction Since Lehman’ Adds To Bear Case
As most readers have doubtlessly surmised, the tech-driven rally in US equities has done exactly
When A Pause Is Just A Pause
While previewing this week’s data void in the US, I jokingly noted that traders concerned
Concentrating On Concentration
Just how concentrated is the US equity market? Well, the most concentrated ever on at
Under The Lacquer, A Benighted Market
At this point, the narrative is so familiar that just about anybody could pen a
Young Retail Investors Spotted In New Tech Frenzy
Retail investors may be back at it in US tech shares. You don’t so much
As Summer Beckons, Surveys Paint Divergent Picture Of US Services
US services sector activity decelerated to the brink of contraction in May, in what counted
Top Strategist Sees ‘Moment Of Recognition’ For US Stocks
For just the fifth time in nearly a quarter century, the forward earnings growth forecast
S&P On Brink Of Bull Market Brings Out The Bears
The bears are out. With the S&P on the brink of a bull market, many
In Effect Until Recession
If you’re inclined to suggest the recession crowd is treading dangerously close to Boy Who
Contextless Void
It should be a very quiet week for US traders. The data docket is nearly
Zeitgeist 2023
A funny thing happened this week. Or you might call it a very unfunny thing
Quixotic Bears Tested In 2023 Stock Melt-Up
It’s easy to confuse forced capitulation with a loss of conviction. Think of Bill Ackman
Cheating Gravity With The ‘Magnificent 7’
Just how dominant is big US tech in 2023? Or, put differently, how magnificent are
Imminent Global Liquidity Drain Estimated At Up To $1.5 Trillion
It’s time for your weekly liquidity warning. Late last month, I walked back through a
Tide Suddenly Turns For US Stock Fund Flows
The flows story of 2023 is the massive influx of cash into… well, into cash.
‘FOMO’ Morphs Into ‘FOCUS’ Amid A.I. Frenzy
“This cross-asset price rally is about to become a ‘wealth effect’ problem for them again,”
US Jobs Report Is Goldilocks With Caveat
The US economy added a hefty 339,000 jobs in May, hotly-anticipated data released on Friday
Monopolies
Not surprisingly, money poured into tech-focused equity funds over the latest weekly reporting period, a
Déjà Vu: Money Market Assets, Fed Bank Backstop Usage Hit New Records
Do you ever have déjà vu, Mrs. Lancaster? Pick your favorite Phil Connors quote to
A.I. Came For Thousands Of Human Jobs Last Month
Lost in the proverbial shuffle Thursday: What might’ve been the first A.I. cameo in a
All Roads Lead To A.I.
If you’re biased against equity rallies built on hype, greed, mania and other manifestations of
US Manufacturing Malaise Continues, But Disinflation Is Silver Lining
The marquee gauge of US manufacturing activity spent a seventh month in contraction territory, data
Under-The-Radar Revisions Help Case For Fed Pause
The sleeper in Thursday’s US economic data releases was a downward revision to unit labor
US Private Sector Hiring Blows Past All Estimates
US private sector employers added 278,000 jobs in May, data released on Thursday showed. The
A Wary ECB Doubles Down Even As Inflation Recedes
Policymaker rhetoric damped enthusiasm around a sharp drop in European inflation on Thursday. “There is
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