‘Mixed Feelings’

American consumers harbor “mixed feelings.”

On one hand, they live in the US as opposed to, say, Gaza. So it could be worse. A lot worse.

On the other hand, they’re broke, miserable and one pink slip away from moving their families to a van down by the river.

I’m just kidding. Mostly.

Consumer confidence moved up this month, according to the Conference Board’s measure, which printed an above-consensus 103.3 in data released on Tuesday. That counts as a six-month high, but as the figure shows, we’re still trapped in a pretty narrow range. And Americans are far from ebullient.

“Consumers continued to express mixed feelings in August,” Conference Board chief economist Dana Peterson said, noting that although perceptions of business conditions improved this month, survey respondents expressed more concerns about the labor market.

The expectations gauge spent a second month above 80. Readings below 80 typically presage a recession within 12 months, although like a lot of formerly useful signals, that leading indicator hasn’t worked well post-pandemic.

As ever, it’s difficult to determine what’s driving opinions: Experience or news flow. The media was awash in stories documenting the latest rise in the unemployment rate earlier this month, and that surely had an impact on perceptions of the labor market. It’s not implausible to suggest media coverage was more important in the opinion formation process than actual interactions between Americans and employers.

Peterson’s remarks were ambiguous in that regard. “Consumers’ assessments of the current labor situation, while still positive, continued to weaken, and assessments of the labor market going forward were more pessimistic… likely reflect[ing] the recent increase in unemployment,” she said.

Americans’ confidence in the stock market declined a bit on the heels of the early-August volatility. The share who see gains over the next 12 months dropped around four points to 46.9%, and write-in responses found more people fretting about the stocks they don’t own. (The top 10% of society owns 87% of the stocks. If the survey sample’s representative, respondents’ share of the market is negligible. Now cue the shrill rejoinder: “My 100 SPY shares may not matter in the grand scheme of things, but they matter to me!” God bless you. Thoughts and prayers.)

Tellingly, confidence among Americans making less than $25,000 slipped (because how confident can you really be when you live in poverty?) and home-buying plans evidenced the least enthusiasm in a dozen years using the six-month moving average for the relevant index. Confidence was highest among those making $100,000 or more. Imagine that.


 

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