Good News: The Marginal Equity Buyer Is Back (And Bigly)
Is the marginal equity buyer back?
Is the marginal equity buyer back?
I’m sure you can see where this is going.
Sustainable rally or dead cat?
Trade wars, Russians, morons, markets.
“One of Wall Street’s most misbegotten memes is the Goldilocks Economy notion. They invariably trot her out near the end of a business cycle in order to keep the mullets buying stocks and the Fed heads as anesthetized as possible.”
C’est la vie.
Let’s see, where do we start with the crazy?
It says a lot about how uninspiring a given day truly was when the biggest news involves Larry Kudlow.
“Mostly reassuring.”
Well, what can you say about this week?
In any event, here is some of the early analyst commentary that will of course continue to trickle in throughout the day from whoever hasn’t already headed out to the bar (which is where I would have been by now on a payrolls Friday were this two years ago).
U.S. Feb. Nonfarm Payrolls Rose 313k
Avg. hourly earnings Y/y 2.6%
“…volatility across various asset classes can be at times highly correlated and hence the extraordinary growth of short volatility strategies might create risks.”
Again, those highlighted bits are a clear effort to massage the message – they’re trying to preserve the Goldilocks narrative by telegraphing a still-subdued outlook for inflation while underscoring the near-term upbeat growth picture.
Ok, let’s just step back for a second and take stock of everything that’s happened in the past 72 hours.
“The name of the thing being sold isn’t always a very good representation of what the thing is, sometimes for innocent reasons, and sometimes because crunchy, raw, unboned, real, dead frog doesn’t sound very appetizing.”
Days like today are always amusing to the extent they bring out the Don Quixote in people.
This is not going to be for the faint of heart.
Peter Navarro needs no introduction, or maybe he does because as it turns out, a lot of Americans aren’t fully apprised of the extent to which America’s trade policy is now being dictated by a pseudo-academic whose claim to fame is “Death By China”, a documentary that features a Bowie knife with a yuan note wrapped around the handle literally stabbing America in the heart(land).Â
So basically, Ben just said that the only thing he can think of off the top of his head that would be worse for financial markets than Trump starting a trade war would be if the plot of “Seeking A Friend For The End Of The World” became reality.
Well needless to say, this was not a particularly inspiring week.
“Do not be surprised if a very adverse reaction by financial markets forces the administration to reconsider the tariff proposals.”
So there you go. You can take that to the bank. Or not.
And so we close the book on February.
“The wisdom of crowds has yet to grace itself on bond yield forecasters.”
Folks are fired up about the possibility that the Xi “put” will be squarely in place in Chinese markets for the foreseeable future. And by “foreseeable future” I mean…
Boy, I’ll tell you what: I would absolutely love to rent out a small auditorium, pack it full of economists and analysts, make it an open bar event (so, all you can drink for free), set the conversation topic to “impact of rising rates on stocks”, lock the all the doors and then watch what happens from the safe confines of an observation deck.
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