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Featured

‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

September 22, 2026September 22, 2026
  • There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 21, 2026

Markets

Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • Relief

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Holding Pattern

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026

economy

Weekly: The Counterfactual

September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026
  • Bolstered By Stock Gains, Americans Keep Spending

    September 16, 2026September 16, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Prices Still Rising In ‘Out Of Whack’ US Housing Market

April 29, 2025April 29, 2025

US home prices continued to rise, worsening an affordability crisis which, according even to housing

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4 Comments on Prices Still Rising In ‘Out Of Whack’ US Housing Market

From GM To Canadian Grandmothers, Everyone’s ‘Tired Of Winning’ Already

April 29, 2025April 30, 2025

I don’t know about anybody else, but this American’s tired of winning already. 100 days

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10 Comments on From GM To Canadian Grandmothers, Everyone’s ‘Tired Of Winning’ Already

No One Likes Uncertainty

April 28, 2025April 28, 2025

This may not have occurred to every “very stable genius” in the world, but deliberately

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2 Comments on No One Likes Uncertainty

‘Ghosts In The Recursion Fields’: How We Lose Our Humanity To AI

April 28, 2025April 29, 2025

I tried recently to limit my iPhone screen time. To that end, I started bringing

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25 Comments on ‘Ghosts In The Recursion Fields’: How We Lose Our Humanity To AI

The Bonds Don’t Lie

April 28, 2025April 29, 2025

First thing Monday, I not-so-gently chided Scott Bessent for what, in my view anyway, was

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3 Comments on The Bonds Don’t Lie

Fool’s Gold

April 28, 2025April 29, 2025

Over the weekend, Scott Bessent said a ridiculous thing. He said a lot of ridiculous

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10 Comments on Fool’s Gold

Traders Brace For Data Tsunami With GDP, Payrolls Due

April 27, 2025April 29, 2025

This’ll be a busy week on the macro-market front, and probably on the political front

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3 Comments on Traders Brace For Data Tsunami With GDP, Payrolls Due

War, Peace And A Very Slippery Slope

April 27, 2025April 28, 2025

Donald Trump was at Pope Francis’s funeral for all of 14 minutes on Saturday. It

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8 Comments on War, Peace And A Very Slippery Slope

The Domino Effect Of De-Anchored Inflation Expectations

April 26, 2025April 28, 2025

The Powell Fed’s in a tough spot. That’s a good early candidate for macro-market understatement

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11 Comments on The Domino Effect Of De-Anchored Inflation Expectations

Is 20x The New Ceiling For US Equity Multiples?

April 25, 2025April 25, 2025

A little over a month ago, JPMorgan suggested US equity valuations reset structurally higher over

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2 Comments on Is 20x The New Ceiling For US Equity Multiples?

Arresting Developments

April 25, 2025April 28, 2025

Kash Patel’s arresting judges now. So, there’s that. No sense burying the lede. But it’s

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16 Comments on Arresting Developments

Americans’ Inflation Outlook Neared 10% During April Tariff Panic

April 25, 2025April 27, 2025

Donald Trump’s backpedaling on tariffs, and the partial recovery in US financial assets since the

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3 Comments on Americans’ Inflation Outlook Neared 103 During April Tariff Panic

If Everything’s Exempted, Is It Still A Trade War?

April 25, 2025April 27, 2025

As it turns out, the trade war’s a silly charade. Who knew?! On Friday, reports

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5 Comments on If Everything’s Exempted, Is It Still A Trade War?

Alphabet Does Enough

April 24, 2025April 25, 2025

To let some analysts tell it, Alphabet’s virtually uninvestable. Pretty much everything to do with

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7 Comments on Alphabet Does Enough

Who Sold US Stocks?

April 24, 2025

Who is Colonel Mustard, in the library, with a candlestick? This is Jeopardy, you took

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1 Comment on Who Sold US Stocks?

‘Vladimir, STOP!’

April 24, 2025April 26, 2025

“Vladimir, STOP!” So came the manifestly impotent squeal from TruthSocial, where Donald Trump on Thursday

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15 Comments on ‘Vladimir, STOP!’

Erstwhile Housing Optimists Warn On Society-Wide Mobility Crisis

April 24, 2025April 25, 2025

So much for that? For a few months, it looked as though the resale US

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4 Comments on Erstwhile Housing Optimists Warn On Society-Wide Mobility Crisis

Long March Versus Tiny Hands

April 24, 2025April 25, 2025

According to China, remarks from Donald Trump and Scott Bessent in recent days about a

Read More

14 Comments on Long March Versus Tiny Hands

Cutting The Tails, Watching The Screens

April 23, 2025

It’s too stupid, I can’t take it. Or at least not without laughing at something

Read More

5 Comments on Cutting The Tails, Watching The Screens

‘A Nonsensical Place’

April 23, 2025April 24, 2025

Did everyone hear Scott Bessent on Wednesday? I hope so, because the rhetoric from the

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14 Comments on ‘A Nonsensical Place’

Jump In New Home Sales Is Old News As Rates Surge Back To 7%

April 23, 2025April 24, 2025

Tediously bland wooden boxes newly-built atop suburban concrete farms: Get ’em while there’s a glut!

Read More

2 Comments on Jump In New Home Sales Is Old News As Rates Surge Back To 72

US Economy Seen Succumbing To Stagflation In Lackluster PMIs

April 23, 2025April 24, 2025

Early reads on US business activity for April painted a subdued, stagflationary picture, not surprising

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6 Comments on US Economy Seen Succumbing To Stagflation In Lackluster PMIs

Untethered

April 23, 2025April 24, 2025

Remember when tariff threats were a boon for the dollar, Treasurys were a haven from

Read More

15 Comments on Untethered

‘An Artificial And Unnecessary Crisis’

April 22, 2025April 23, 2025

Donald Trump on Tuesday said he’s never been inclined to fire Jerome Powell. It was

Read More

9 Comments on ‘An Artificial And Unnecessary Crisis’

History Shows High Tariffs Pose ‘Extreme Danger’ To Corporate Profits

April 22, 2025April 23, 2025

If there’s a silver lining (there’s not), it’s that US corporate profits are extremely elevated

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3 Comments on History Shows High Tariffs Pose ‘Extreme Danger’ To Corporate Profits

IMF Laments Highest US Tariffs In 100 Years

April 22, 2025April 23, 2025

The IMF downgraded the US growth outlook on Tuesday. I mention this not because anyone

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8 Comments on IMF Laments Highest US Tariffs In 100 Years

Stock Market Gives Trump Historic Thumbs Down

April 22, 2025April 22, 2025

I love it. I absolutely love it. Wait, that’s not true. And even if it

Read More

1 Comment on Stock Market Gives Trump Historic Thumbs Down

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • WeeblesWobble (ButTheyDon'tFallDown) on ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!
  • Wave Dash on ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!
  • Blognonymous on There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…
  • Mr. Dog on ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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