Donald Trump’s a risky proposition. Just in general, but particularly as President of the United States.

He’s volatility personified, so I suppose it’s not surprising that risk-adjusted returns are pitiful for US equities so far in 2025.

This is more trivia than anything else, but it’s worth a mention in the context of what’s sure to be three and a half more years of “never a dull moment.”

The figures above, from Goldman’s David Kostin, give you some context. The main benchmark’s annualizing a risk-adjusted return ratio of just 0.1, while mid- and small-caps are faring even worse.

Note from the chart on the right that the median looking back three and a half decades for the S&P is 1.

“Elevated trade policy uncertainty has been the main driver of poor risk-adjusted performance, leading to below-average returns and above-average volatility,” Kostin wrote, in his latest, adding that trailing six-month realized vol ranks in the 89%ile percentile since 1990, while trailing six-month returns rank in just the 24%ile.

So, subpar returns, higher-than-average volatility. There’s probably a joke in there about Trump’s businesses. I’ll let readers tell it.