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Featured

The Capex Catch-22

November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Someone’s Got Work For You

    November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Tech Got No Love This Earnings Season

    November 3, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Have The Hyper-Scalers Lost Their Minds?

    November 2, 2026November 2, 2026

Markets

Apple Sets A Bunch Of Records. Misses In China

November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Sell-Side Sarcasm: New And Improved!

    November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

    October 31, 2026November 2, 2026
  • The Problem, In A Nutshell…

    October 30, 2026November 2, 2026
  • What’s What And WTF?

    October 30, 2026November 1, 2026

economy

Debbie Downers Amid The Renaissance

November 2, 2026November 3, 2026
  • Polls, Projectiles And Payrolls

    November 1, 2026November 2, 2026
  • ‘Remains Elevated’

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Geopolitics

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Meanwhile, In Japan: Yield Curve Control Fails, Top US Creditor Status Regained

August 16, 2019August 16, 2019

“The BOJ will have to give up something”.

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Trump ‘Rattled’ Amid Market Chaos, Is Calling Business Leaders About Economy: Sources

August 15, 2019August 16, 2019

The president also believes there may be a conspiracy afoot.

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6 Comments on Trump ‘Rattled’ Amid Market Chaos, Is Calling Business Leaders About Economy: Sources

New Zealand’s 10-Year Yield Dives Below 1% For First Time As Manufacturing Gauge Sinks Into Contraction

August 15, 2019August 15, 2019

Don’t look now, but…

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Trump Dares China To Retaliate To New Tariffs, Says America Needs More ‘Mental Institutions’

August 15, 2019August 15, 2019

“If for some reason [I don’t win] in 2020, you’ll see this economy go down the tubes”.

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8 Comments on Trump Dares China To Retaliate To New Tariffs, Says America Needs More ‘Mental Institutions’

Of Course Donald Trump Wants The US To Buy Greenland

August 15, 2019August 15, 2019

“What do you guys think about that”?

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5 Comments on Of Course Donald Trump Wants The US To Buy Greenland

‘Uh, I Don’t Think So’: Bullard Fails Fed Chair Audition, Tells Fox Fed Won’t Convene ‘Emergency Session’

August 15, 2019August 15, 2019

“A couple of weeks one way or another probably doesn’t matter”.

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2 Comments on ‘Uh, I Don’t Think So’: Bullard Fails Fed Chair Audition, Tells Fox Fed Won’t Convene ‘Emergency Session’

‘Attack One, Attack Us All’: Netanyahu Incurs Wrath Of AOC, Pressley After Omar, Tlaib Ban

August 15, 2019November 18, 2021

“Many strong supporters of Israel will be deeply disappointed in this decision”, Chuck Schumer said.

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1 Comment on ‘Attack One, Attack Us All’: Netanyahu Incurs Wrath Of AOC, Pressley After Omar, Tlaib Ban

As 10-Year US Yield Dives Below 1.50%, One Measure Shows Investors Most Worried In 30 Years

August 15, 2019August 15, 2019

Don’t panic.

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1 Comment on As 10-Year US Yield Dives Below 1.50%, One Measure Shows Investors Most Worried In 30 Years

‘It Is What It Is’: Senior Officials Tell CNBC Trump, Navarro Only Ones Blaming Fed For Volatility

August 15, 2019

“The president is not expected to relent”, Tausche dryly notes.

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4 Comments on ‘It Is What It Is’: Senior Officials Tell CNBC Trump, Navarro Only Ones Blaming Fed For Volatility

Israel Bars Democrats Omar, Tlaib From Country After Trump Says ‘They Hate All Jews’

August 15, 2019August 15, 2019

Beyond the pale – again.

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5 Comments on Israel Bars Democrats Omar, Tlaib From Country After Trump Says ‘They Hate All Jews’

Deluge Of Decent Data Casts Further Doubt On Need For Aggressive Fed Cuts

August 15, 2019August 15, 2019

Unfortunately for the Fed, this just underlines a familiar dilemma.

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10 Comments on Deluge Of Decent Data Casts Further Doubt On Need For Aggressive Fed Cuts

Hong Kong Adds Billions In Stimulus, But Warns Economy May Flatline Amid Unrest

August 15, 2019September 4, 2019

Welcome to the “abyss”.

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Unstoppable Bond Rally Powers Forward As Yields Hit New Lows In US, Germany

August 15, 2019

The “policy impotence” trade is here.

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1 Comment on Unstoppable Bond Rally Powers Forward As Yields Hit New Lows In US, Germany

Conflicting China Trade Comments Whipsaw Nervous Markets

August 15, 2019August 15, 2019

“The US side’s move seriously violated the consensus between the heads of state”.

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3 Comments on Conflicting China Trade Comments Whipsaw Nervous Markets

No More Saving For A Rainy Day, China ‘Has To Resume Headline Easing Soon’, SocGen Warns

August 14, 2019August 15, 2019

“Targeted measures are clearly insufficient to stabilize even credit growth, never mind the real economy”.

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4 Comments on No More Saving For A Rainy Day, China ‘Has To Resume Headline Easing Soon’, SocGen Warns

Trump Calls Xi ‘Good Man In Tough Business’, Wants ‘Quick’, ‘Humane’ Solution To Hong Kong Problem

August 14, 2019September 4, 2019

“Personal meeting”?

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10 Comments on Trump Calls Xi ‘Good Man In Tough Business’, Wants ‘Quick’, ‘Humane’ Solution To Hong Kong Problem

#TrumpRecession, CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!

August 14, 2019August 14, 2019

“We will Win”!

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12 Comments on #TrumpRecession, CRAZY INVERTED YIELD CURVE!

‘Next To Nothing’: China Launches ‘Unprecedented’ Crack-Down On Gold Imports

August 14, 2019August 14, 2019

“…an easy way to curtail outflows”.

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1 Comment on ‘Next To Nothing’: China Launches ‘Unprecedented’ Crack-Down On Gold Imports

‘Monetary Stupidity Reigns’: Macro Tourist Delivers Epic Rant Amid Panic Bond Rally

August 14, 2019August 14, 2019

“The German government is getting paid to spend and yet they refuse to spend”.

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8 Comments on ‘Monetary Stupidity Reigns’: Macro Tourist Delivers Epic Rant Amid Panic Bond Rally

Limit-Up! Long Bond Futures Tripped Circuit Breaker During ‘Crazy’ Wednesday Rally

August 14, 2019

The fun never stops.

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3 Comments on Limit-Up! Long Bond Futures Tripped Circuit Breaker During ‘Crazy’ Wednesday Rally

Peter Navarro Admits China Tariffs Hurt America, Promises ‘Total Certainty’ For 3 Months

August 14, 2019

“They had already bought the stuff”.

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4 Comments on Peter Navarro Admits China Tariffs Hurt America, Promises ‘Total Certainty’ For 3 Months

Wilbur Ross Highly Suspicious Of This Yield Curve ‘Formula’ Everyone Is Talking About

August 14, 2019

“You’re good at that stuff too”.

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3 Comments on Wilbur Ross Highly Suspicious Of This Yield Curve ‘Formula’ Everyone Is Talking About

‘3D Chess’ Tariff Strategy Looks Suspiciously Like Chaos To Stocks, Bonds, Fed

August 14, 2019August 14, 2019

Investors and policymakers are increasingly wary of the White House’s “crazy like a fox” tariff tactics.

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8 Comments on ‘3D Chess’ Tariff Strategy Looks Suspiciously Like Chaos To Stocks, Bonds, Fed

After Wednesday’s Doomsday Inversions, What’s Next For The Yield Curve?

August 14, 2019August 14, 2019

Crystal ball gazing via a trio of possible scenarios.

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US, UK Curves Invert, 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits Record Low Amid Growth Panic

August 14, 2019August 14, 2019

The bad vibes are proliferating.

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1 Comment on US, UK Curves Invert, 30-Year Treasury Yield Hits Record Low Amid Growth Panic

‘Sick Man’ Germany Stumbles To Second Contraction In Four Quarters – Recession Looms

August 14, 2019August 14, 2019

“The impact of weaker growth on the labor market is becoming more visible”.

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1 Comment on ‘Sick Man’ Germany Stumbles To Second Contraction In Four Quarters – Recession Looms

China Data Deluge Misses Badly As Industrial Output Crashes To Lowest Since 2002

August 13, 2019August 14, 2019

Misses pretty much across the board.

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2 Comments on China Data Deluge Misses Badly As Industrial Output Crashes To Lowest Since 2002

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

  • Frederic MARI on The Capex Catch-22
  • Frederic MARI on Let’s Talk Blue Waves
  • Frederic MARI on Apple Sets A Bunch Of Records. Misses In China
  • T-Dog on Let’s Talk Blue Waves

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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