Trump Needlessly Fans Recession Flames With New Tweets Alleging Economic Conspiracy

Trump Needlessly Fans Recession Flames With New Tweets Alleging Economic Conspiracy

Donald Trump keeps talking about a recession. As noted here on Thursday evening, the word “recession” is suddenly on everyone’s lips, and that's in no small part due to the president's tweets and comments to the media. He is not doing his reelection chances any favors by talking and tweeting about an economic downturn and preemptively assigning blame for a calamity that hasn’t happened yet, but he's inclined to do it anyway, which just stokes more consternation among the electorate. R
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2 thoughts on “Trump Needlessly Fans Recession Flames With New Tweets Alleging Economic Conspiracy

  1. I believe the reality may be a bit more perverse than the logic presented here. I believe this is the first administration ever that is willing to gamble with US (and global) recession and subordinate that recession to their political goals in their overall calculus. They are certainly pre-assigning recession blame. They are doing this not to Teflon-coat president in case of recession; they are doing this because they believe a global recession is necessary to tip China into “defeat” in a Trump context, and they intend to cause that recession through trade effects. The political calculation needed (in Trump’s so-called mind) is simply that reelection will be more closely tied to Trump “winning” than to voter pocket books and it will depend on his skill in waging a disinformation campaign. E.g., if he loses 5 million votes because 5 million voters lose their jobs, and gains 8 million votes because he is the Chosen One who beat China, it’s a win, right? I believe Trump is supremely confident in his ability to wage the necessary communications war and he knows the Fed will be forced to support his agenda only in the case that he delivers them an actual recession to which they must respond.

    China is, in fact, facing elevated risk of losing the degree of economic control they are accustomed to (responding to an unanticipated trade war, debt levels constraining policy choices, etc) so it’s easy to imagine Navarro waving economic pseudo-facts in his face about how China is “on the edge”, “we’re winning”, “give ’em one more nudge”, etc.

    The Fed gets yet another new twist in economic analysis: in calculating the probability of recession, I’ll bet they’ve never factored in a probability of political causation.

    Ask yourself: which of the following statements seems more significant to Donald Trump:
    “I beat China”
    “the US entered its 19th recession in the last 100 years”

    Hopefully, I’m just another raving conspiracy theorist on the internet… 😉

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