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Featured

Have The Hyper-Scalers Lost Their Minds?

November 2, 2026November 2, 2026
  • Apple Sets A Bunch Of Records. Misses In China

    November 2, 2026November 2, 2026
  • Debbie Downers Amid The Renaissance

    November 2, 2026November 2, 2026
  • Sell-Side Sarcasm: New And Improved!

    November 2, 2026November 2, 2026

Markets

Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

October 31, 2026November 2, 2026
  • The Problem, In A Nutshell…

    October 30, 2026November 2, 2026
  • What’s What And WTF?

    October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Oil, Dammit!

    October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • My Goodness: Amazon Spent Some Money

    October 29, 2026October 31, 2026

economy

Polls, Projectiles And Payrolls

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026
  • ‘Remains Elevated’

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026

Geopolitics

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 2, 2026

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Bridgewater Makes Billion-Dollar Bet On Market Drop By March

November 22, 2019November 22, 2019

Everybody panic.

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hedge fundsLeave a Comment on Bridgewater Makes Billion-Dollar Bet On Market Drop By March

Don’t ‘Cry Wolf Prematurely’: Goldman Delivers Global Growth Outlook, Best Trade Ideas Headed Into 2020

November 21, 2019November 24, 2019

There’s “career risk” involved in making recession the baseline.

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1 Comment on Don’t ‘Cry Wolf Prematurely’: Goldman Delivers Global Growth Outlook, Best Trade Ideas Headed Into 2020

The Truth Behind Trump’s Farm Bailouts: Millions For Campaign Aides, Payouts To Billionaires, $5,136 For Small Growers

November 21, 2019April 23, 2022

“Enjoy!”

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3 Comments on The Truth Behind Trump’s Farm Bailouts: Millions For Campaign Aides, Payouts To Billionaires, $5,136 For Small Growers

GOP Senators Game Out Trump’s Impeachment Trial With Kushner, Conway

November 21, 2019November 21, 2019

“I expect the Senate to conduct proceedings that are fair”.

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1 Comment on GOP Senators Game Out Trump’s Impeachment Trial With Kushner, Conway

One Word For Markets In 2019: ‘Breathtaking’

November 21, 2019November 21, 2019

Gasp!

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Leave a Comment on One Word For Markets In 2019: ‘Breathtaking’

Trump May Launch ‘Sweeping’ 301 Trade Probe Against Europe: Reports

November 21, 2019November 21, 2019

The incorrigible ‘tariff man’ won’t be denied.

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Xi’s Media Man Lashes Out At ‘Blind’ US Congress, But Stocks Pinned As S&P ‘Chokes On Gamma’

November 21, 2019November 21, 2019

“President Trump needs to sign the bill using braille”.

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Leave a Comment on Xi’s Media Man Lashes Out At ‘Blind’ US Congress, But Stocks Pinned As S&P ‘Chokes On Gamma’

‘We Are Heading For A Long-Term Future Of Declining Living Standards’: OECD

November 21, 2019November 21, 2019

“The alarm bells are ringing loud and clear.”

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Leave a Comment on ‘We Are Heading For A Long-Term Future Of Declining Living Standards’: OECD

Macro Tourist, Bill Dudley Think Carl Icahn May (Eventually) Be Right On Corporate Debt ‘Time Bomb’

November 21, 2019November 21, 2019

“Although I have no idea of the timing, as this cycle continues, I am getting more sympathetic to the idea credit is a time bomb.”

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3 Comments on Macro Tourist, Bill Dudley Think Carl Icahn May (Eventually) Be Right On Corporate Debt ‘Time Bomb’

Fiona Hill Blasts House GOP In Opening Statement For Pushing ‘Fictional Narrative Of The Russian Security Services’

November 21, 2019November 21, 2019

“Based on questions and statements I have heard, some of you on this committee appear to believe”…

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4 Comments on Fiona Hill Blasts House GOP In Opening Statement For Pushing ‘Fictional Narrative Of The Russian Security Services’

Nothing ‘Big’ On Trade By December 15, But Tariff Escalation Will Be Delayed: Report

November 21, 2019November 21, 2019

It’s worth noting that another delay will only serve to prolong the uncertainty and underscore the farcical nature of this charade.

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Leave a Comment on Nothing ‘Big’ On Trade By December 15, But Tariff Escalation Will Be Delayed: Report

‘Strong Call For Unity’ Made At Mario Draghi’s Final ECB Meeting After Contentious September Showdown

November 21, 2019November 21, 2019

“It was regarded as important to form a consensus and to unite”.

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Leave a Comment on ‘Strong Call For Unity’ Made At Mario Draghi’s Final ECB Meeting After Contentious September Showdown

‘In The Foothills Of A Cold War’: Stocks Gyrate On ‘Cautious Optimism’, ‘Confusion’ Around US-China Trade

November 21, 2019November 21, 2019

Henry Kissinger “hopes” things don’t get worse.

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Leave a Comment on ‘In The Foothills Of A Cold War’: Stocks Gyrate On ‘Cautious Optimism’, ‘Confusion’ Around US-China Trade

Trump To Risk Standoff With Xi, Will Sign Hong Kong Bill: Reports

November 20, 2019November 21, 2019

“The ratings will be tremendous”.

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1 Comment on Trump To Risk Standoff With Xi, Will Sign Hong Kong Bill: Reports

This Is What Counts As ‘Fireworks’ In An Otherwise Tranquil Market

November 20, 2019November 20, 2019

This sounds like a trivial statement (and it is), but…

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2 Comments on This Is What Counts As ‘Fireworks’ In An Otherwise Tranquil Market

Fed Policy ‘Well Calibrated’ After October Rate Cut, FOMC Minutes Show

November 20, 2019November 20, 2019

Downside risks are still elevated, though.

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Leave a Comment on Fed Policy ‘Well Calibrated’ After October Rate Cut, FOMC Minutes Show

Despair! US-China Trade Deal May Get Pushed To 2020, Sources Say

November 20, 2019November 20, 2019

Somebody get Larry Kudlow on the phone.

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2 Comments on Despair! US-China Trade Deal May Get Pushed To 2020, Sources Say

Trump Barely Knows Gordon Sondland, Who Gave Him $1 Million

November 20, 2019November 20, 2019

In September, Gordon was a “highly respected” man.

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6 Comments on Trump Barely Knows Gordon Sondland, Who Gave Him $1 Million

The Macro Tourist Finds A Large Mispricing…

November 20, 2019November 20, 2019

“I love trades where I understand the mechanics of a large mispricing”.

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Leave a Comment on The Macro Tourist Finds A Large Mispricing…

‘Was There A Quid Pro Quo? Yes’: Gordon Sondland Throws Trump, Giuliani, Pompeo Under Bus In Stunning Opening Statement

November 20, 2019November 20, 2019

“I followed the directions of the President. Everyone was in the loop. It was no secret.”

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7 Comments on ‘Was There A Quid Pro Quo? Yes’: Gordon Sondland Throws Trump, Giuliani, Pompeo Under Bus In Stunning Opening Statement

S&P 5,300, Bear Market ‘Signposts’ And The Persistence Of The ‘Exceptional’

November 20, 2019November 20, 2019

“Stimulus unwind [is] especially tricky”.

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2 Comments on S&P 5,300, Bear Market ‘Signposts’ And The Persistence Of The ‘Exceptional’

And Now, For A Geopolitical Reality Check…

November 20, 2019November 20, 2019

Risk aversion runs rampant as Hong Kong bill hits sentiment.

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Leave a Comment on And Now, For A Geopolitical Reality Check…

China Cuts Loan Prime Rate, Rounding Out November Mini-Easing Push

November 19, 2019

“We should just expect the PBoC to keep adopting this combination in the future”.

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Leave a Comment on China Cuts Loan Prime Rate, Rounding Out November Mini-Easing Push

Senate Passes Hong Kong Bill, Risking Backlash From China Amid Tense Trade Talks

November 19, 2019November 20, 2019

It’s not yet clear how Trump will react.

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Leave a Comment on Senate Passes Hong Kong Bill, Risking Backlash From China Amid Tense Trade Talks

Yes, The S&P 500 Is Exposed To Liquidity Risk

November 19, 2019November 19, 2019

And passive investing plays a role.

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2 Comments on Yes, The S&P 500 Is Exposed To Liquidity Risk

Markets Get Clearest Picture Yet Of Tariff Relief Plan – And It’s Still Pretty Darn Murky

November 19, 2019November 19, 2019

It’s still wholly convoluted.

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Leave a Comment on Markets Get Clearest Picture Yet Of Tariff Relief Plan – And It’s Still Pretty Darn Murky

‘In Russia, This Would Surely Cost Me My Life’: Vindman, Williams Undeterred By Threats In Key Impeachment Testimony

November 19, 2019November 19, 2019

“My simple act of appearing here today would not be tolerated in many places”.

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2 Comments on ‘In Russia, This Would Surely Cost Me My Life’: Vindman, Williams Undeterred By Threats In Key Impeachment Testimony

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

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  • Xeger on The Arbitrageur
  • Rizzo Jonez on Apple Sets A Bunch Of Records. Misses In China
  • WMD on Sell-Side Sarcasm: New And Improved!

Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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