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Featured

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Polls, Projectiles And Payrolls

    November 1, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

    October 31, 2026October 31, 2026
  • The Problem, In A Nutshell…

    October 30, 2026

Markets

What’s What And WTF?

October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Oil, Dammit!

    October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • My Goodness: Amazon Spent Some Money

    October 29, 2026October 31, 2026
  • Alphabet Whiffs, Microsoft Hits

    October 28, 2026October 31, 2026
  • Mona Lisa’s Smirk

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

economy

‘Remains Elevated’

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026

Geopolitics

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Ben Bernanke: Virus Recession More Like Big ‘Snowstorm’ Than Great Depression

March 25, 2020March 25, 2020

“This is a very different animal”.

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6 Comments on Ben Bernanke: Virus Recession More Like Big ‘Snowstorm’ Than Great Depression

Coming Unemployment Crisis Plunges America’s Newly Jobless Into ‘Kafkaesque’ Nightmare

March 25, 2020March 25, 2020

“We’ve never seen anything like it”.

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4 Comments on Coming Unemployment Crisis Plunges America’s Newly Jobless Into ‘Kafkaesque’ Nightmare

‘Back-Of-The-Envelope’ Math From St. Louis Fed Shows US Unemployment Rate Surging To 32%

March 25, 2020March 25, 2020

“These are very large numbers by historical standards”.

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2 Comments on ‘Back-Of-The-Envelope’ Math From St. Louis Fed Shows US Unemployment Rate Surging To 322

Going ‘Through Hell’

March 25, 2020March 25, 2020

Meanwhile, on the pandemic front…

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6 Comments on Going ‘Through Hell’

$2 Trillion.

March 25, 2020March 25, 2020

“Absolutely, absolutely, absolutely”.

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4 Comments on $2 Trillion.

Marko Kolanovic Offers Hope In Coronavirus Fight With Analysis Of Kinsa Smart Thermometer Data

March 24, 2020March 26, 2020

“…the response evolves initially from under-reaction, then overreaction and then converges closer to an optimal response.”

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Find Me A Sharpie, PTJ.

March 24, 2020March 24, 2020

“I think Easter Sunday — you’ll have packed churches all over our country”.

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18 Comments on Find Me A Sharpie, PTJ.

Nomura’s McElligott: The Fed Is Now ‘Chief Risk-Taker And CIO’ (And Other Fun Market Notables)

March 24, 2020March 24, 2020

So much to backstop, so little time.

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4 Comments on Nomura’s McElligott: The Fed Is Now ‘Chief Risk-Taker And CIO’ (And Other Fun Market Notables)

Here’s What It Looks Like When Everyone Frontruns Jay Powell’s ETF Buying…

March 24, 2020

A $1 billion one-day flow bonanza.

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2 Comments on Here’s What It Looks Like When Everyone Frontruns Jay Powell’s ETF Buying…

PMIs Show US Economy ‘Decimated’ In March. Kudlow Says Trump May Reopen America Within Weeks

March 24, 2020March 24, 2020

“…that doesn’t mean we’re going to walk away from advice of health experts”.

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1 Comment on PMIs Show US Economy ‘Decimated’ In March. Kudlow Says Trump May Reopen America Within Weeks

The Not-So-Great Coronavirus Debate Rages On: Kill The Global Economy To Save Lives?

March 24, 2020March 24, 2020

“…but the faster the virus stops, the quicker and stronger the recovery will be.”

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12 Comments on The Not-So-Great Coronavirus Debate Rages On: Kill The Global Economy To Save Lives?

European Economy Suffers Catastrophic Hit From Virus Measures, March Data Shows

March 24, 2020March 24, 2020

“…far exceeding that seen even at the height of the global financial crisis.”

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Leave a Comment on European Economy Suffers Catastrophic Hit From Virus Measures, March Data Shows

Hope Floats.

March 24, 2020March 24, 2020

“…a key lesson is that major wars are staggeringly expensive.”

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14 Comments on Hope Floats.

‘There Will Be Tremendous Death’: Trump Warns Of Dire Consequences From Economic Shutdown

March 23, 2020March 24, 2020

“That doesn’t mean we’re going to tell everybody no more driving”.

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27 Comments on ‘There Will Be Tremendous Death’: Trump Warns Of Dire Consequences From Economic Shutdown

Harley Bassman: ‘The S&P Will Likely Check The Oil At The 2016 Election Day Level – A Truly Ironic Coda’

March 23, 2020March 23, 2020

“Notwithstanding that professionals who sell rate volatility for a living have been carted off on a stretcher (and not from COVID-19)”…

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2 Comments on Harley Bassman: ‘The S&P Will Likely Check The Oil At The 2016 Election Day Level – A Truly Ironic Coda’

Fed’s Bullard Calls For ‘Organized Shutdown’ Of US Economy Until July 1

March 23, 2020March 23, 2020

“The first goal during the NPAP is to intentionally reduce (reduce!) economic activity in order to meet public health objectives.”

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13 Comments on Fed’s Bullard Calls For ‘Organized Shutdown’ Of US Economy Until July 1

‘Difficult Tradeoffs’

March 23, 2020March 23, 2020

“We can’t shut the economy”.

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4 Comments on ‘Difficult Tradeoffs’

50 Cent Gasoline, A Sub-Trillion Apple, Germany’s Bazooka And 100% Recession Odds

March 23, 2020March 23, 2020

Markets continue to throw off a veritable smorgasbord of consequential and amusing headlines.

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oil4 Comments on 50 Cent Gasoline, A Sub-Trillion Apple, Germany’s Bazooka And 1004 Recession Odds

A $900 Billion Rebalancing Flow?

March 23, 2020March 23, 2020

Historic equity underperformance stokes expectation of massive rebalancing bid for stocks.

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4 Comments on A $900 Billion Rebalancing Flow?

Fed Does ‘Exactly What Market Needed’. Trump Considers Flouting ‘Advice Of Health Professionals’ To Save Economy

March 23, 2020

“I mean, seriously Jon, let’s get real, what do you want me to do?”

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4 Comments on Fed Does ‘Exactly What Market Needed’. Trump Considers Flouting ‘Advice Of Health Professionals’ To Save Economy

The Fed’s ‘Shock And Awe’ Part II: Open-Ended QE, Corporate Bond Buying, Credit ETF Purchases And More

March 23, 2020December 31, 2020

The Fed on Monday morning announced open-ended QE, effectively promising to buy unlimited amounts of

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10 Comments on The Fed’s ‘Shock And Awe’ Part II: Open-Ended QE, Corporate Bond Buying, Credit ETF Purchases And More

‘The Headlines Continue To Shock’: Week Begins With More Record Stock Losses, Eye-Popping Bond Moves

March 23, 2020March 23, 2020

“The only people befitting from this are algos”.

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4 Comments on ‘The Headlines Continue To Shock’: Week Begins With More Record Stock Losses, Eye-Popping Bond Moves

‘Lockdown, Shutdown And Limit Down’: Traders Come Into New Week Pondering Depression Redux

March 22, 2020March 22, 2020

“Yet, without fresh capital, businesses will fold”.

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8 Comments on ‘Lockdown, Shutdown And Limit Down’: Traders Come Into New Week Pondering Depression Redux

Morgan Stanley Sees 30% GDP Contraction. Bullard Warns Of 30% Unemployment. Lawmakers Dither.

March 22, 2020March 23, 2020

“Economic activity has come to a near standstill.”

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10 Comments on Morgan Stanley Sees 3010 GDP Contraction. Bullard Warns Of 3010 Unemployment. Lawmakers Dither.

Of Parachutes And Helicopters: Rates In The Time Of COVID

March 22, 2020March 22, 2020

No one can see the end of the tunnel – or if they can, there’s little attention being paid to it.

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4 Comments on Of Parachutes And Helicopters: Rates In The Time Of COVID

More QE! RBNZ To Fire 30 Billion Bazooka At Virus

March 22, 2020

“The negative economic implications of the coronavirus outbreak have continued to intensify.”

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1 Comment on More QE! RBNZ To Fire 30 Billion Bazooka At Virus

$2 Billion Mutual Fund Drops 27% In Two Days, In Possible NAV ‘Catch-Down’

March 22, 2020

One plausible guess…

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5 Comments on $2 Billion Mutual Fund Drops 275 In Two Days, In Possible NAV ‘Catch-Down’

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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