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Featured

Let’s Talk Blue Waves

November 1, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Polls, Projectiles And Payrolls

    November 1, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Weekly: The Leveraged Buildout (Speculative Gravity Control)

    October 31, 2026October 31, 2026
  • The Problem, In A Nutshell…

    October 30, 2026

Markets

What’s What And WTF?

October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • Oil, Dammit!

    October 30, 2026November 1, 2026
  • My Goodness: Amazon Spent Some Money

    October 29, 2026October 31, 2026
  • Alphabet Whiffs, Microsoft Hits

    October 28, 2026October 31, 2026
  • Mona Lisa’s Smirk

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

economy

‘Remains Elevated’

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026

Geopolitics

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Nomura’s McElligott: New US-China Fight Could Be ‘Dreaded Macro Shock-Down Catalyst’

May 1, 2020May 1, 2020

Just when you thought it was safe…

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4 Comments on Nomura’s McElligott: New US-China Fight Could Be ‘Dreaded Macro Shock-Down Catalyst’

Sell In May? Market Worries Trump On Crash Course For New War With China

May 1, 2020May 1, 2020

“I’m not allowed to tell you that”.

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10 Comments on Sell In May? Market Worries Trump On Crash Course For New War With China

In ‘Simulated’ Economy, 3/4 Of Laid-Off Workers Get Benefits Exceeding Their Former Wage

April 30, 2020April 30, 2020

Who needs the real thing, anyway?

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8 Comments on In ‘Simulated’ Economy, 3/4 Of Laid-Off Workers Get Benefits Exceeding Their Former Wage

Forget Stocks, IG Credit’s Half-Trillion, Back-To-Back Bonanza Is The Real Story

April 30, 2020April 30, 2020

Go ahead, everybody – indulge yourself in Fed jokes.

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2 Comments on Forget Stocks, IG Credit’s Half-Trillion, Back-To-Back Bonanza Is The Real Story

What 150 Years Of History Tells Us About Rallies And Bear Markets

April 30, 2020May 7, 2020

Are stocks ahead of themselves? Here’s what history suggests.

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1 Comment on What 150 Years Of History Tells Us About Rallies And Bear Markets

Main Street, Wall Street, Depression Carte Blanche And The Coming Witch Hunts

April 30, 2020April 30, 2020

“We found a witch, may we burn her?”

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20 Comments on Main Street, Wall Street, Depression Carte Blanche And The Coming Witch Hunts

Nomura’s Charlie McElligott Explains Why Stocks Rallied In Face Of Depression

April 30, 2020

These are modern markets. You must learn to speak the language.

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10 Comments on Nomura’s Charlie McElligott Explains Why Stocks Rallied In Face Of Depression

Coronavirus Claims 30 Million US Jobs In Six Weeks

April 30, 2020April 30, 2020

…the nature of this crisis likely means consumption habits have been forever altered.

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7 Comments on Coronavirus Claims 30 Million US Jobs In Six Weeks

ECB Launches New Pandemic-Specific Liquidity Backstops. Says ‘Fully Prepared’ To Increase Asset Purchases

April 30, 2020April 30, 2020

A Herculean task.

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1 Comment on ECB Launches New Pandemic-Specific Liquidity Backstops. Says ‘Fully Prepared’ To Increase Asset Purchases

‘Historic’: Markets Marvel At Scope Of Europe’s Record Collapse On GDP Day

April 30, 2020April 30, 2020

“…a recession like the one we’re currently in is unprecedented.”

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Leave a Comment on ‘Historic’: Markets Marvel At Scope Of Europe’s Record Collapse On GDP Day

China Puts Up Decent PMIs, But Doubts Persist. Trump Says Beijing Plotting Against Him.

April 29, 2020April 29, 2020

“China will do anything they can to have me lose this race.”

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Leave a Comment on China Puts Up Decent PMIs, But Doubts Persist. Trump Says Beijing Plotting Against Him.

Fed Critics Show No Class In Crisis

April 29, 2020April 29, 2020

“It is heartbreaking to see all that threatened right now.”

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20 Comments on Fed Critics Show No Class In Crisis

Amid Remdesivir Euphoria, Trump Plans ‘Operation Warp Speed’ For Vaccine

April 29, 2020April 30, 2020

The plan is expected to cost billions of dollars.

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18 Comments on Amid Remdesivir Euphoria, Trump Plans ‘Operation Warp Speed’ For Vaccine

Fed Says Virus Causing ‘Tremendous’ Human, Economic Suffering. Punts On IOER

April 29, 2020April 29, 2020

“…sharp declines in economic activity and a surge in job losses.”

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4 Comments on Fed Says Virus Causing ‘Tremendous’ Human, Economic Suffering. Punts On IOER

4 Charts Reveal Extent Of Collapse In US Services Sector

April 29, 2020April 29, 2020

Not all of them are necessarily intuitive.

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9 Comments on 4 Charts Reveal Extent Of Collapse In US Services Sector

The Great Coronavirus Recession Has Begun

April 29, 2020April 29, 2020

Mother Nature had other plans.

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6 Comments on The Great Coronavirus Recession Has Begun

Stocks Are Too Rich For Rich People, Europeans Are Terrified, And A ‘Remarkable Liquidity Opportunity’

April 29, 2020April 29, 2020

“The same can be said for investors who were concerned as the equity market approached the lows.”

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1 Comment on Stocks Are Too Rich For Rich People, Europeans Are Terrified, And A ‘Remarkable Liquidity Opportunity’

How Many Trillions Equals Negative 1? (And 100-Year Floods That Happen All The Time)

April 28, 2020

Don’t forget the lessons from March.

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15 Comments on How Many Trillions Equals Negative 1? (And 100-Year Floods That Happen All The Time)

Give Me Bacon Or Give Me Death: Trump Orders Meat Plants Open As Shortages Loom

April 28, 2020April 30, 2020

No more “road blocks”.

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11 Comments on Give Me Bacon Or Give Me Death: Trump Orders Meat Plants Open As Shortages Loom

Marko Kolanovic Delivers New COVID-19 Analysis. Says ‘Research Should Not Be Biased By Political Views’

April 28, 2020April 29, 2020

“It should go without saying”…

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As Consumer Confidence Falls Most In 47 Years, Kevin Hassett Appeals To ‘God’ For Recovery

April 28, 2020April 28, 2020

In case you were curious, Hassett sees the jobless rate rising as high as 20% by June.

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5 Comments on As Consumer Confidence Falls Most In 47 Years, Kevin Hassett Appeals To ‘God’ For Recovery

How Great Would It Be If Jeff Gundlach Shorted Stocks Just Before The Fed Starts Buying Them?

April 28, 2020June 9, 2020

Mnuchin told Sorkin only that Fed buying is “highly unlikely”.

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5 Comments on How Great Would It Be If Jeff Gundlach Shorted Stocks Just Before The Fed Starts Buying Them?

Nomura’s McElligott: CTAs Set To Flip Long In S&P As Vol Normalization Triggers ‘Second-Order Slingshot’

April 28, 2020April 28, 2020

Back to “normal”?

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5 Comments on Nomura’s McElligott: CTAs Set To Flip Long In S&P As Vol Normalization Triggers ‘Second-Order Slingshot’

‘Better Odds At The Neighborhood Craps Game’

April 28, 2020April 28, 2020

I suppose that’s just as good a summary as any.

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oil2 Comments on ‘Better Odds At The Neighborhood Craps Game’

Trump: ‘Smart People’ Are Buying Stocks Right Now

April 27, 2020April 28, 2020

“It’s not going to be that long” of a process.

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9 Comments on Trump: ‘Smart People’ Are Buying Stocks Right Now

The ‘Long-Term Stock Market Bear Argument,’ As Told By A Pro

April 27, 2020April 27, 2020

“I have spent my entire career immersed in a giant bull market. I know nothing different.”

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‘This Crisis Will Impair Living Standards For Most Of The Decade’: Scott Minerd Delivers Another Dire Warning

April 27, 2020April 27, 2020

“…the United States will never be able to return to free market capitalism.”

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4 Comments on ‘This Crisis Will Impair Living Standards For Most Of The Decade’: Scott Minerd Delivers Another Dire Warning

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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