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Featured

The Problem, In A Nutshell…

October 30, 2026
  • What’s What And WTF?

    October 30, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Oil, Dammit!

    October 30, 2026October 30, 2026
  • My Goodness: Amazon Spent Some Money

    October 29, 2026

Markets

Alphabet Whiffs, Microsoft Hits

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Mona Lisa’s Smirk

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • F-ck You, Claude (Zen)

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • Around, Around We Go

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

    October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

economy

‘Remains Elevated’

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Boom!

    October 29, 2026October 30, 2026
  • Dissembling Strategery

    October 28, 2026October 29, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026

Geopolitics

Lagarde Versus Le Pen?

October 29, 2026October 30, 2026

The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

October 28, 2026October 29, 2026

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Duly Noted

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 30, 2026

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

24 Hours After Collapse, Crypto Hears Three Dreaded Letters

May 20, 2021May 21, 2021

Coming off one of the most tumultuous days in recent memory, the cryptosphere could have

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6 Comments on 24 Hours After Collapse, Crypto Hears Three Dreaded Letters

Price Pressures And Broken Records

May 20, 2021May 20, 2021

The May vintage of the Philadelphia Fed survey revealed a less-than-ideal, albeit entirely predictable, juxtaposition:

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1 Comment on Price Pressures And Broken Records

Acknowledging Gravity: Notes On The Crypto Meltdown

May 20, 2021May 26, 2021

May 19, 2021, will be burned into the minds of investors and speculators alike, specifically

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1 Comment on Acknowledging Gravity: Notes On The Crypto Meltdown

Jobless Claims Halve Under Biden

May 20, 2021May 25, 2021

Jobless claims fell again last week, the government said Thursday. 444,000 Americans filed for unemployment

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6 Comments on Jobless Claims Halve Under Biden

The Thrill Is Gone

May 20, 2021May 21, 2021

Sentiment was described as “mixed” Thursday. I suppose that’s accurate, as far as subjective assessments

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5 Comments on The Thrill Is Gone

‘Upcoming Meetings’

May 19, 2021May 20, 2021

Ostensibly, traders had good reason to parse the April Fed minutes. After all, the US

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1 Comment on ‘Upcoming Meetings’

Up In Smoke: Crypto Disaster Sparks Anger, Incredulity

May 19, 2021May 24, 2021

On Wednesday, amid a veritable collapse in crypto prices, one twentysomething in California explained his

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6 Comments on Up In Smoke: Crypto Disaster Sparks Anger, Incredulity

Fear Of Atonement

May 19, 2021May 20, 2021

“There is just ‘no bid’ in broad US Equities INDEX upside,” Nomura’s Charlie McElligott said

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3 Comments on Fear Of Atonement

‘Something May Be Up’

May 19, 2021May 20, 2021

Through Tuesday of this week, US equities and TLT had moved in the same direction

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2 Comments on ‘Something May Be Up’

Bitcoin Blues

May 19, 2021May 24, 2021

“US equity market prices have surged over the last year, prompting concerns about stretched valuations

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11 Comments on Bitcoin Blues

We’re All Cathie Wood

May 18, 2021May 19, 2021

At this point, it almost feels gratuitous to deliver more play-by-play commentary on the recent

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1 Comment on We’re All Cathie Wood

Unambiguously Bullish, But…

May 18, 2021May 19, 2021

Investors are “unambiguously bullish,” reads the first line of the color accompanying the May vintage

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Leave a Comment on Unambiguously Bullish, But…

‘Courageous’ China May Impose Losses On Huarong Bondholders: NYT

May 18, 2021May 19, 2021

When last I checked on the Huarong debacle, reports indicated the PBoC was set to

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Leave a Comment on ‘Courageous’ China May Impose Losses On Huarong Bondholders: NYT

Housing ‘Zenith’

May 18, 2021May 19, 2021

Housing starts came in at the low-end of the range for April, perhaps suggesting that

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6 Comments on Housing ‘Zenith’

External Factors

May 18, 2021May 18, 2021

Sentiment improved Tuesday, as markets seemed at ease (figuratively and literally) with Richard Clarida’s assurances

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2 Comments on External Factors

Compelling Narratives

May 17, 2021May 21, 2021

A lackluster start to the week was blamed, in part anyway, on underwhelming data out

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2 Comments on Compelling Narratives

Companies Made Some Money. People Bought Some Stocks

May 17, 2021May 18, 2021

You know, it’s funny: Q1 2021 was just about as good as it gets on

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2 Comments on Companies Made Some Money. People Bought Some Stocks

Labor Rising

May 17, 2021May 24, 2021

The global recovery is “red-hot,” Morgan Stanley declared, in the course of reminding market participants

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12 Comments on Labor Rising

A ‘Healthy Level’

May 17, 2021May 18, 2021

“A healthy level of inflation is a sign the economy is healthy,” Raphael Bostic said

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4 Comments on A ‘Healthy Level’

Fitful Starts

May 17, 2021May 17, 2021

Equities are consolidating, a process which could last between one and three months, and will

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1 Comment on Fitful Starts

Not Your Hedge

May 16, 2021May 22, 2021

Meanwhile, from the “things you don’t see everyday” file, TLT fell 50bps on three consecutive

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8 Comments on Not Your Hedge

The Dairy Aisle

May 16, 2021May 17, 2021

On Friday, in response to a reader comment, I noted that the archetypal American Everyman

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7 Comments on The Dairy Aisle

Mandatory Action Verbs

May 16, 2021May 20, 2021

“Nobody actually has a very good handle on where near-term inflation prints will land, and

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2 Comments on Mandatory Action Verbs

Shaking The Edifice

May 15, 2021May 16, 2021

Although things had an “all’s well that ends well” feel to them by Friday afternoon,

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4 Comments on Shaking The Edifice

Israeli Military Sends Loud Message To International Media

May 15, 2021May 21, 2021

On Saturday, an Israeli airstrike targeted a tower housing the offices of various media outlets

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4 Comments on Israeli Military Sends Loud Message To International Media

Goldman Raises S&P Profit Forecast After ‘Stellar’ Q1

May 15, 2021May 16, 2021

Consensus expected corporate profits in the US to rise 20% YoY during the first quarter.

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Leave a Comment on Goldman Raises S&P Profit Forecast After ‘Stellar’ Q1

Genie Bottle

May 14, 2021May 16, 2021

All’s well that ends well. For those fortunate enough to own equities, that is. If,

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7 Comments on Genie Bottle

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

  • Engineer on What’s What And WTF?
  • Engineer on Oil, Dammit!
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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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