The most important CPI print in recent memory (according to the hype machine) didn't disappoint. Or at least not if you were in the camp expecting another hot print. On the heels of April's "shocker," the headline gauge rose 0.6% MoM, more than the 0.5% economists expected. The YoY print was 5%, also hotter than anticipated (figure below) and the highest since a 5.4% read in August of 2008. Core came in hot as well, printing 3.8% YoY, against expectations for a more benign 3.5% rise. The i
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7 thoughts on “En’Core’

  1. A 20+% MoM decline in rate of core inflation (from 0.9% to 0.7% ). YoY comps are likely to be down 20% in July and another 15% or so in August. If it comes to pass, four consecutive months of declines in rate of growth would suggest a transitory phenomenon.

  2. Toward the beginning of covid, rental car agencies offloaded their autos because they were sitting idle and would not be maintained.
    Now, rental car agencies do not have enough rental cars. Renting a car online and pre-paying does not guarantee a car will be waiting for you. If you are lucky enough to get a rental car, you will notice the car is new with very low mileage.
    Once the inventory needs of the rental car agencies are met, I expect pricing of new cars to cool.

  3. There will be no clean economic reads until this fall- that is both on the up and the downside. A number of factors will drop out by then. Thinking you will see a more clean read with releases put out in November for October. Until then, take what you see with a large grain of salt- both on the up and the downside. Even virus reads may be biased low because of the weather in the Northern Hemisphere. Next year will be very interesting….

    1. There’s nothing to disagree with. Here’s the problem: You’re conflating a MoM print (7.3%) with a YoY print. The government’s YoY print is 30%, just like your “car gurus” who, ironically considering your misguided attempt to “correct” me, actually have a lower number than the government if you want equate their “last 30 days” with a monthly government report, which you probably shouldn’t, but since we’re conflating things why not?

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