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Featured

Dissembling Strategery

October 28, 2026October 28, 2026
  • Alphabet Whiffs, Microsoft Hits

    October 28, 2026
  • Mona Lisa’s Smirk

    October 28, 2026October 28, 2026
  • The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State

    October 28, 2026October 28, 2026

Markets

F-ck You, Claude (Zen)

October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • Around, Around We Go

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • Anthropic: The Promise, The Numbers, The Risks

    October 26, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Only You Can Prevent A Bear Market

    October 26, 2026October 27, 2026
  • Credit Canaries

    October 25, 2026October 26, 2026

economy

An ARM And A Leg

October 28, 2026October 28, 2026
  • Frozen Bubble

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s All Relative

    October 27, 2026October 28, 2026
  • It’s A Big Week

    October 25, 2026October 27, 2026
  • What To Expect From The October FOMC Meeting

    October 24, 2026October 26, 2026

Geopolitics

Lula!

October 26, 2026October 27, 2026

Not Done Just Yet?

October 22, 2026October 23, 2026

Questions, But No Answers

October 19, 2026October 20, 2026

Duly Noted

Not Since 1969…

October 22, 2026October 24, 2026

Mind The Control Group!

October 15, 2026October 16, 2026

Bassman: Here’s What’s Happening With The Curve

April 4, 2022April 5, 2022

Indeed the Fed has been slow in shutting down the money printing; and the market

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4 Comments on Bassman: Here’s What’s Happening With The Curve

Biden Floats War Crimes Trial For Putin

April 4, 2022April 5, 2022

“Remember I got criticized for calling Putin a war criminal,” Joe Biden reminded reporters on

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3 Comments on Biden Floats War Crimes Trial For Putin

Jamie Dimon Talks ‘Human Existence,’ ‘Explosive Situations’

April 4, 2022April 5, 2022

JPMorgan is prepared for anything “in all times,” Jamie Dimon declared on Monday, in his

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1 Comment on Jamie Dimon Talks ‘Human Existence,’ ‘Explosive Situations’

Bucha Flashpoint

April 4, 2022April 12, 2022

The EU on Monday called on Vladimir Putin to stop the war in Ukraine “immediately”

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14 Comments on Bucha Flashpoint

Fed’s Rate Hikes May Shatter 14-Year Dream State

April 3, 2022April 4, 2022

Bill Dudley thinks a US recession is “inevitable.” Not everyone agrees. Asset prices, for example,

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9 Comments on Fed’s Rate Hikes May Shatter 14-Year Dream State

Cathie Wood Castigates Fed. Says Powell ‘Playing With Fire’

April 3, 2022April 4, 2022

On Saturday evening, someone told me they were headed to their first cocktail party in

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10 Comments on Cathie Wood Castigates Fed. Says Powell ‘Playing With Fire’

What ‘Usually’ Happens To The S&P After Curve Inversions

April 3, 2022April 15, 2022

Stocks are looking past rising yields in part because the move in reals merely marks

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1 Comment on What ‘Usually’ Happens To The S&P After Curve Inversions

Zoltan Pozsar’s Fairy Tale

April 2, 2022April 17, 2022

Zoltan Pozsar scarcely needs to exalt himself. The financial media does that for him. In

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15 Comments on Zoltan Pozsar’s Fairy Tale

Assets Not Pricing ‘Inevitable’ Recession, Former Dudley Employer Says

April 2, 2022April 3, 2022

Inevitably, Bill Dudley’s “inevitable” recession call prompted pushback from some market participants and served as

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7 Comments on Assets Not Pricing ‘Inevitable’ Recession, Former Dudley Employer Says

Inversions And Reversions

April 1, 2022April 3, 2022

It’s a good thing the yield curve doesn’t matter. If it did, we’d be in

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7 Comments on Inversions And Reversions

Tiny Homes, Large Bubbles And The Biggest Picture

April 1, 2022April 17, 2022

Earlier this week, shares of Toll Brothers fell sharply amid a broad decline in homebuilders

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10 Comments on Tiny Homes, Large Bubbles And The Biggest Picture

Clash Of The US Factory Surveys

April 1, 2022April 3, 2022

In what the pessimists among you might fairly characterize as a somewhat foreboding development, the

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1 Comment on Clash Of The US Factory Surveys

Jobs Report Clears Path For Fed To Hike US Into Recession

April 1, 2022April 5, 2022

The US economy added 431,000 jobs in March, the BLS said Friday. It was another

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3 Comments on Jobs Report Clears Path For Fed To Hike US Into Recession

Bombs Over Belgorod

April 1, 2022April 2, 2022

Last week, the Russian Defense Ministry claimed to have “practically” decimated Ukraine’s air force and

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6 Comments on Bombs Over Belgorod

‘My Wallet Shrivels Just Writing This’: Euro CPI Shocker Elicits Incredulity

April 1, 2022April 3, 2022

“That’s a big number.” “Those are pretty ugly prints.” Those (real) quotes give you a

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Leave a Comment on ‘My Wallet Shrivels Just Writing This’: Euro CPI Shocker Elicits Incredulity

US Housing Bubble Tested As Mortgage Rates Go Vertical

March 31, 2022April 6, 2022

A few days ago, one regular reader ventured a quip about my (admittedly repetitive) characterization

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12 Comments on US Housing Bubble Tested As Mortgage Rates Go Vertical

Cartoon Tyrant

March 31, 2022April 1, 2022

One problem with spending decades cultivating fear among friends, foes and everyone in-between, is that

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7 Comments on Cartoon Tyrant

Goldman Has 7 Reasons Why Stocks Didn’t Crash

March 31, 2022April 1, 2022

Although the S&P just logged its first losing quarter since the onset of the pandemic,

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2 Comments on Goldman Has 7 Reasons Why Stocks Didn’t Crash

Biden’s ‘Shock And Awe’ Oil Gambit Faces Long Odds

March 31, 2022April 1, 2022

Frustrated by a recalcitrant OPEC and wary of ongoing, energy-driven inflation ahead of the US

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14 Comments on Biden’s ‘Shock And Awe’ Oil Gambit Faces Long Odds

America’s Spendthrifts Stare Down Inflation Dragon

March 31, 2022April 3, 2022

Real personal spending fell twice as much as expected in the US last month, underscoring

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8 Comments on America’s Spendthrifts Stare Down Inflation Dragon

Bassman: Fed ‘Backed Into A Corner’

March 30, 2022March 31, 2022

Long-term US rates at ~2.50% are not consistent with ~5% inflation unless the Fed invokes

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6 Comments on Bassman: Fed ‘Backed Into A Corner’

These ‘Crucial’ Levels Matter Most In News-Driven Market

March 30, 2022March 31, 2022

In early February, one bank’s equity derivatives team suggested market participants were assigning too much

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1 Comment on These ‘Crucial’ Levels Matter Most In News-Driven Market

In Germany, Inflation Just Flew Off The Charts

March 30, 2022April 3, 2022

German inflation accelerated at the fastest pace in decades in March, preliminary figures released on

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1 Comment on In Germany, Inflation Just Flew Off The Charts

US Private Sector Hiring Was Robust In March

March 30, 2022April 3, 2022

Private sector US employers added 455,000 jobs in March, ADP said Wednesday. It was a

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6 Comments on US Private Sector Hiring Was Robust In March

‘No Breakthrough’

March 30, 2022March 31, 2022

Peace talks in Istanbul yielded “no breakthrough,” the Kremlin said Wednesday. Lots of work remains

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8 Comments on ‘No Breakthrough’

Revenge Of The Meme Stock Mania

March 29, 2022March 30, 2022

Late last week, Goldman noted that retail investor activity was picking back up, with animal

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7 Comments on Revenge Of The Meme Stock Mania

As 2s10s Inverts, Dudley Says US Recession ‘Inevitable’

March 29, 2022March 30, 2022

Two days ago, in “Fatalism Sets In As Curve Starts Recession Clock,” I wrote that

Read More

16 Comments on As 2s10s Inverts, Dudley Says US Recession ‘Inevitable’

Posts pagination

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • Engineer on Dissembling Strategery
  • Engineer on Mona Lisa’s Smirk
  • Engineer on The Tragic Irony Of The Israeli State
  • WMD on F-ck You, Claude (Zen)

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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