China’s COVID-Zero Strategy Risks Global Stagflation

China’s COVID-Zero Strategy Risks Global Stagflation

The threat of never-ending, rolling lockdowns in the world's second largest economy is a fixture of the post-pandemic macro environment. That sentence is oxymoronic, which underscores the point. The Chinese leadership is still fighting the COVID war as though it's 2020. For Beijing, this isn't a "post-pandemic" world. Not yet, anyway. Earlier this month, during a video address marking the opening of this year's Boao Forum, Xi Jinping said "more hard efforts are needed for humanity to clinch th
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6 thoughts on “China’s COVID-Zero Strategy Risks Global Stagflation

  1. On the other hand, a full-blown outbreak of Omicron Covid, in a nation of 1.4 billion people who have had only limited exposure to the disease thus far, protected only by a less effective vaccine, would not be very pretty either. Xi may feel he has no choice but to double-down.

  2. China needs a new covid policy. I could understand what they were doing now, if they could admit that overseas MRNA vaccines were better and acquired enough to give a booster shot to their population. They should/could also require their elderly to get vaccinated. The current policy makes no sense otherwise. China covid 0 policy and the Russian invasion of Ukraine point up the danger of a regime dominated by one individual. You are rolling the dice on their decision making- and once they become too dominant nobody (logically) would have the courage to tell them their policy ideas are a bad choice.

  3. It is just dumb. So what if Chinese prestige might be dented by using a foreign mRNA vaccine? The Chinese population would never know that the “Fosun” shot is actually a “Biontech” shot; Xi has enough control of domestic news to obfuscate.

    1. I’m sure that Xi has given considerable thought to the idea of importing and deploying mRNA vaccines, either overtly or covertly, and decided against it. Xi has shown that he is willing to impose significant economic damage within China to consolidate his power. I would not be surprised if the decision not to (effectively) vaccinate his population also has something to do with consolidation of power.

  4. To tell the truth, depending on what that actually is, Xi may have made the same mistake in 2020 that MAGA man did, underestimation of what was happening. Now he’s stuck with an under-protected population and a still present virus. The truth is, this is not a “war” that can actually be won. None of the various COVID-related viruses have been conquerable, controllable, yes, but all are still endemic. There is one deep cultural trait shared by the Chinese people and their leaders that colors their response to most crisis situations, their need to save face at all costs. IMO, this trait has caused Xi to make more mistakes than usual and my guess is that he will not easily escape from his growing hole.

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