‘Bigly’: This Was The Best Month For The Yuan Since It Was Revalued In 2005
We’ve been talking all month about the yuan, and for good reason.
We’ve been talking all month about the yuan, and for good reason.
Importantly, the euro’s haven status is getting cemented here.
Ok, so the overarching narrative for this week shouldn’t be materially different from last week
“Global political developments have kept us on our toes and will continue to do so through the fall and into next year. Investors should brace for a bumpy ride.”
“I knew it, I knew it, I’ve been saying it, sometimes, all along.”
“So how then might the story line read? That all this nonsense that globally rising rates and widespread balance sheet reduction just can’t be a calm experience. Investors simply own too much toxic “financial products†to make that likely.”
“The Russia scandal has entered a new phase, and there’s no going back”…
“Only 22 percent of more than 40,000 respondents from 37 countries had confidence in Trump doing the right thing regarding world affairs; 64 percent felt that way about Barack Obama at the end of his presidency. The only countries preferring Trump were Israel and Russia.”
“In our opinion, this is not dangerous market complacency but a reflection of an abnormally tranquil macro environment, with a benign economic outlook, very supportive financial conditions, and lower political risks”…
“If there was sufficient loss of political support in the US for many of Trump’s policies such that the chance of successful execution falls towards zero, then central banks may need to return to the forefront of the deflation battle. Central Bank support for the economy was starting to lose credibility amongst some investors last year.”
“With US companies seemingly reluctant to make major decisions on hiring and investment ahead of tax reform, with tightened financial conditions starting to bite into Chinese domestic demand, and with an escalation of political risks across the globe, it seems to us that the equity market may be too complacent about downside risk to global growth.”
“Dollar bulls have had a rough go of it lately. After peaking in early January the greenback’s been on a one way train lower, one of many popular “Trump trades†gone awry. While there may have been a solid rationale for the dollar’s decline, I’d be wary of chasing it here. Conditions are brewing for a revival of the dollar’s fortunes.”
Well, SocGen is out with their Global Economic Outlook which, as you may or may
Right, so earlier today we noted that just a few weeks after everything was supposed
“It’s yet another example of how the global narrative increasingly resembles a tag team wrestling exhibition. Or at least a heated he said, she said rumble.”
“He’s someone I would see around the office and who, I guess, was working for me.”
“To date no US President has been impeached by his own party, and given the highly charged partisan environment, we think that evidence of a breach deemed sufficient to trigger impeachment proceedings would have to be very robust. However, if there is a change in the composition of control in Congress post-Midterms and Democrats pick up significant seats, the political calculus could change.”
“Risk assets have taken little notice, except in sovereign CDS where the 03-14 switch (buying 2014 definition, selling 2003 definition) – a potentially highly convex trade on a euro exit – remains high for Italy.”
“And since we believe a Macron presidency has been embedded in market pricing since then, we do not expect his victory in today’s run-off to have a significant impact on markets from tomorrow.”
“There are a couple of ways in which these disconnects can be resolved. But until they are, global central banks need to tread warily. One resolution is of course equities retreat and yields decline, recognizing the dearth of liquidity. “
“I wonder if we aren’t setting up for a buy-the-rumour-sell-the-news reaction.”
So at least for Monday, the verdict is already in on European stocks and how
It’s probably safe to say we’ve reached something that approximates “peak” French election analysis on Wall
“If markets turn more negative on the possibility of deposit flights out of the French banking system or on Italian BTPs and banks, the currency can fall more in the absence of a decisive response from the ECB. But, if the ECB were to show a strong hand in the market, buying sovereign debt, this perception could change.”
On Monday we brought you the latest from France, where fast approaching Presidential elections have
“It’s clear the Assad family reign is coming to an end,” Tillerson told reporters in Lucca, Italy. Here are the other notable soundbites…
Here’s a rundown of pretty much everything you need to know in terms of who said what over the past seven or so hours. Most of this is predictable, but nevertheless you should keep yourself apprised.
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