Flirting With Portfolio Heresy
In January’s monthly letter, I noted that rates strategists are on board with the notion
Mike Wilson’s Earnings Model Sends Dire S&P Warning
“In bear markets like last year’s, when just about everyone lost money, investors lose confidence,”
That’s Great, It Starts With An Earthquake
A running joke during the four-decade bond bull market was analysts’ penchant for suggesting yields
Growing Pains
Traders, investors and Fed officials in their pre-meeting quiet period will all get a look
Going Long A Dangerous World
If you can discern a theme du jour amid rampant macro ambiguity in the early
The Biggest Contrarian Trade Of 2023
It’d be highly unusual if US Treasurys suffered another year of negative returns. In fact,
Plane English
The plane metaphors are as tired as they are ubiquitous. When it comes to analogies,
‘Mission Unaccomplished’
Larry Summers thinks it’s a bad idea for central banks to adjust their inflation targets,
11 In A Row
11 straight months. That’s a long time when you’re talking about deleterious trends, and in
Kolanovic: Recession Isn’t In The Price
Pinpointing the terminal rate may be a fun parlor game, but where Fed funds ultimately
McElligott Spots ‘Ultra-Rare’ ‘Bad News Is Bad News’ Regime
Sometimes, bad macro news is just bad news. Common sense interpretations of incoming data went
The Single Life
US housing starts fell a fourth month in December, and figures for the prior two
Bold Claims
The US economy may be headed into recession faster than many believe, but the labor
Insulting History
“Victory is assured, I have no doubt about it.” Said Vladimir Putin this week, while
The Petroyuan Meme
At one point Wednesday, the most read stories on Bloomberg’s public website were, in order,
Is The US Recession Already Here?
US industry is powering down and layoffs among America’s tech titans are piling up. When
The Medicine Is Working
Markets were handed another favorable piece of US inflation news Wednesday, when producer price growth
Give It Up, Man
“I think yield-curve control is entirely sustainable,” Haruhiko Kuroda said Wednesday, after the Bank of
Markets In ‘Sweet Spot.’ Enjoy It While It Lasts
“Enjoy the sweet spot but also be wary of it,” Deutsche Bank’s Jim Reid said
Landing The Plane After All?
If you ask Goldman’s clients, the odds of a US recession in 2023 are pretty
Morgan Stanley Has Some Wealth To Manage
If you weren’t apprised, Morgan Stanley is a business that “facilitates capital for clients to
There’s A Wrench In Goldman’s Profit Machine
Goldman missed on the top line and reported a $778 million pretax loss in its
‘The Humans Are Still Bearish,’ But Less So
“The humans are still bearish but a lot less bearish than in Q4,” BofA’s Michael
Suspicious Data Suggests China Avoided Deep Economic Slump
The Chinese economy held up far better than feared in the fourth quarter and retail
Survival Of The Richest
This’ll sound callous: There’s no utility left in lamenting the worsening trends in global inequality.
Gambling On Mao
We’re all supposed to be buying Chinese stocks, apparently. The bull case goes something like
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