Highs Before Valentine’s Day
Nearly $50 billion flowed into global equity funds over the past four weeks, according to
Food Prices Are Lower, So Where Are The Savings?
A fixture of the US political news cycle during the developed world’s worst bout of
AAA Letdown
Amazon averted a worst-case sales scenario during the final three months of 2022, results released
The Fed’s Latest ‘Credibility Crisis’
Does the Fed have a credibility crisis? Before you answer, let me give you the
Debt Ceiling: What If?
Although it’s far too early for equity benchmarks to care about “trivial” matters like a
Groundhog Day
The first question Jerome Powell took during this week’s post-FOMC press conference related to the
Labor Problems
Another week, another rock-bottom read on US jobless claims. If you’re looking anxiously for signs
Messy Bank Of England Decision Tips Pause After 10th Hike
The Bank of England hiked rates for a tenth consecutive meeting on Thursday. The 50bps
ECB Hikes, Pre-Announces Another Hike, Opens Door To Pause
The ECB got right to the point on Thursday while hiking rates by another 50bps.
Micromanaging Stocks Until Inflation Cools
Although you wouldn’t know it to look at financial conditions or, relatedly, stocks, bonds and
Easy Money
Asked during Wednesday’s press conference whether easier financial conditions as a result of buoyant stock
Talking Points
“We have more work to do,” Jerome Powell declared Wednesday, following another rate hike from
‘Bracing For Recession’
Feel free to put your own spin on things, but from where I’m sitting, decelerating
Job Openings Surge In Body Blow To US Soft Landing Hopes
US job openings rose to more than 11 million on the final business day of
Weather Blamed For Sharp Drop In US Private Sector Hiring
Private employers in the US added far fewer jobs than expected in January, bolstering the
Europe’s Inflation Crisis Eases — With Several Caveats
The good news is, headline inflation in Europe receded to 8.5% in January. I should
Some Mistakes You Just Can’t Fix
Thanks to a multi-week decline in mortgage rates which helped catalyze a surprise increase in
A Little Bit Of Everything
The US consumer is feeling worse about the outlook, and the rate at which employers
In FOMO Rally, Investors Forget ‘Cardinal Rule’
“Don’t fight the Fed,” says the old adage. But that’s exactly what traders — carbon-based
‘COVID Zero’ Was Expensive
“COVID zero” was expensive. China notched a record deficit of almost CNY9 trillion in 2022,
Living (With) Wage(s)
A key gauge of compensation watched closely by Jerome Powell and the Fed rose less
Narrow Escapes And Turning Points
Europe’s largest economy might’ve contracted in the fourth quarter, but that didn’t stop the euro-area
Markets May Hit ‘Air Pocket’ Soon, Kolanovic Warns
Fade it. That’s the mantra among some of Wall Street’s most recognizable names when it
2023’s ‘Most Mispriced Tail Risk’
It’s unlikely that anything Jerome Powell has to say on Wednesday, following the conclusion of
Pricing 2025 Risk
Rabobank’s Michael Every and the incomparable Zoltan Pozsar may not agree about the plausibility of
Dollar Declines Like This One Are Exceedingly Rare
Look behind the rally since mid-October and you’ll find two things: Falling rates volatility and
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