OECD Update Underscores US-China Economic Divergence
The OECD is concerned about the outlook for the global economy. That’s a tautology depending
Housing Market Roller Coaster Continues As New Construction Plunges
The pace of new construction in the US plunged in August, data released on Tuesday
Qin Gang Had ‘Lifestyle Issues’
Qin Gang had “lifestyle issues.” Qin, the geopolitical observers among you may recall, went missing
Dollar Shorts Washed Out Ahead Of Fed
I’ve been on at some length recently about the dollar, and specifically about recent dollar
Kolanovic: Real Rate, Stock Valuation Disconnect ‘Increasingly Unsustainable’
It’s a familiar refrain: The re-rating behind 2023’s US equity rally is incongruous with elevated
‘Sell Prem, Live The Dream’: Vol-Selling Has Never Been More Reliable
It’s virtually never been more reliably profitable to sell vol. I’ve been over this and
America Can’t Afford Not To Pay Its Workers
I can be abrasive. What else is new, right? I like to think that’s one
As Mortgage Payments Double, Builder Sentiment Buckles
Would-be US homeowners have seen their buying power “significantly eroded” over the past two months.
Mike Wilson Likes Energy Stocks
Is it late-cycle? Does a hard landing loom? Or is the US economy on the
Goldman Says Buy VIX Calls. ‘Major Market Corrections’ Occur In October
If you see a “major market correction” next month, it may not be a coincidence.
US Housing In Focus As 60,000 Deals Fall Through Amid Record Costs
The September FOMC meeting isn’t the only thing on the schedule in the US this
Connecting The (FOMC) Dots
Given that the Fed almost surely isn’t going to raise rates on Wednesday, it might
What To Expect From The September FOMC Meeting
Obviously, the Fed intends to keep rates on hold at this week’s policy gathering. Several
The Dollar As A Petrocurrency
A week ago, I asked how much further the dollar could run. The greenback was
The IPO Market Lives!
The post-pandemic ECM bonanza came to a screeching halt in 2022 as the Fed ratcheted
Hard Landing Harbingers
“Ignore the signal at your own risk.” That was the stark warning from Cam Harvey,
Will The Fed Tacitly Adopt A Higher Inflation Target?
There’s a suspicion in some corners that the Fed, for all its bluster about being
Stocks Enjoy Largest Inflows In 18 Months. But There’s A Caveat…
On Friday, a trader told one financial media outlet that the bull case for equities
American Consumers Look Beyond Gas Prices, Expect Cooler Inflation
“Divergent movements” on subindexes and across demographic cohorts left the headline University of Michigan sentiment
Lies, Damned Lies And The Statistics Bureau
Xi Jinping is limiting access to sensitive economic data, read one of two summary bullet
Money Market Fund AUM Scales Yet Another New Peak
Another week, another new record for money market fund assets. Money funds took in nearly
Calm With A Chance Of Fireworks
Time and again over the past several months, I’ve revisited the post-SVB vol crunch. This
Exiles On Main Street, Redux
The word “macroeconomics” doesn’t exactly get the blood boiling, and neither, really, do ostensibly exciting
US Economy Impolitely Refuses To Die
Thursday’s key macro data out of the US reinforced the message from Wednesday’s CPI report:
ECB Braves One Final Hike As Forecasts Show Rising Stagflation Risk
The ECB on Thursday raised rates for a 10th time, in what was likely the
China Delivers RRR Cut In Latest Bid To Resuscitate Economy
“The economy continues to recover and its internal driver keeps strengthening.” That’s according to the
A Word On Bear Steepening
You wouldn’t know it if your only frame of reference is the post-Lehman world, but
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