It’s a hectic week for the macro community.

A daunting bevy of data, including top-tier releases covering the US labor market, will collide with a closely-watched Treasury refunding announcement and policy meetings from the Fed, Bank of England and BoJ to create a nonstop flow of ostensibly tradable headlines.

For those interested in a preview of the policy meetings, you’re encouraged to peruse the linked article above. Suffice to say the Fed will be on hold, the Bank of Japan may (but almost surely won’t) tweak yield-curve control and the Bank of England will deliver an update on just how vexing they expect the UK’s stagflationary malaise to be over the next several months.

The marquee event this week in the US arguably isn’t the October jobs report. Instead, it’s Treasury’s financing estimates and refunding announcement. The never-ending selloff at the long-end of the Treasury curve is in no small part attributable to oversupply concerns at a time when price-insensitive buyers (e.g., the Fed, FX reserve managers and domestic banks) have stepped back, leaving the market at the mercy of something that vaguely resembles price discovery.

Recent auction tails (the entire 3s/10s/30s series, as well as last week’s five-year sale) heightened supply concerns and the market’s reaction to those tails underscored how sensitive this issue really is. That’s the backdrop for the refunding. Some have suggested Treasury could introduce a figurative and literal “twist” given still robust bill demand and jitters around coupon supply, but with RRP down to “just” ~$1.1 trillion, nascent signs of cheapening and bills already bumping up against TBAC’s recommended share of outstanding debt, it’s not clear how much scope there is for a game-changer in that regard.

Whatever the case, Monday’s financing estimate and Wednesday’s refunding announcement (just a few hours before the FOMC decision) have market-moving potential. It’s possible the refunding will be a “buy the news” event in bonds, where that means higher borrowing needs are already in the price after months of acute selling pressure at the US long-end. We’ll see.

Friday is NFP day, of course, and economists are looking for 183,000 from the headline. September’s headline was a blockbuster, and you’ll recall that it came packaged with meaningful upward revisions, the first of 2023.

The Fed could really use a break here, where that means a print that doesn’t continue to suggest the labor market is hopelessly out of balance.

The pace of hiring as reported in the initial reading for September wasn’t even remotely consistent with price stability, or at least not if you believe (as everyone generally does) that the availability of jobs and the amenability of desperate employers to pay up for scarce labor, is a key determinant of incremental consumer spending.

Prior to NFP, traders will get an amuse-bouche in October’s ADP report and an appetizer courtesy of September JOLTS. Economists are looking for 9.22 million from the job openings headline. That’s another place the Fed desperately needs a break. The last JOLTS report showed a sharp increase in the number of open positions, reversing months of progress.

The “immaculate disinflation” narrative lives and dies by that one data point or, more accurately, by the ratio of openings to unemployed: If job openings recede, they can absorb labor market normalization that might otherwise manifest in actual job losses.

America’s 9.6 million job openings are to labor market normalization what the Fed’s bloated RRP facility was to Treasury’s cash rebuild: Just as the market needed RRP balances to absorb bill issuance in order to avoid reserve drain, the economy needs job openings to “absorb” labor market normalization to avoid layoffs.

Macro watchers will also get quarterly ECI, ULC and productivity updates this week. ECI, you’re reminded, is a crucial input to the Fed’s decision calculus. It was ECI which, according to his own dramatized retelling, changed Jerome Powell’s mind about inflation in late 2021.

Consensus is looking for a 1% headline ECI gain. Anything materially hotter than that would be bad news. As for ULC and productivity, I assume readers don’t need a primer, but just in case: You want more productivity and lower unit labor costs.

That’s hardly the end of it. In addition to the refunding, the Fed, the BoJ, the BoE, ADP, JOLTS, NFP, ECI and ULC, investors will get ISM manufacturing (and services) for October, as well as Conference Board confidence. Also on deck: Updates on both national home price indexes for the US, Challenger job cuts, GDP data out of Europe and PMIs from China.

This is, without exaggeration, one of the most crowded data and policy dockets in recent memory. Good luck out there. And stay tuned.