US consumer confidence dropped to a five-month low in October, not surprising given dysfunction in D.C., lingering inflation concerns and the long shadow of war.

October’s decline, though not as bad as feared, was the third consecutive. The headline print, at 102.6, beat the 100.5 consensus.

Recall that confidence jumped in June and July as inflation worries receded, stocks rallied and the debt ceiling standoff was resolved in reasonably amicable fashion.

Both the present situation gauge and the expectations index dropped this month. At 75.6, the expectations index was again below the 80 threshold which typically presages a recession within 12 months.

Conference Board chief economist Dana Peterson described a US consumer “preoccupied with rising prices in general, and for grocery and gasoline prices in particular.” Concerns about what the survey euphemistically called “the political situation” were pervasive. Higher rates likewise cast a pall.

Tellingly, consumers were still upbeat about America’s bulletproof labor market. Although fewer respondents said jobs were plentiful, the number describing them as “hard to get” fell too, leaving a labor differential that actually improved from September.

Although the headline confidence print and the beleaguered expectations index offered enough for bears to chew on, 2023 has demonstrated that as long as the jobs market holds up, consumption generally will too — no matter how irritable or disheartened consumers might be feeling on any given day.

It’s true that savings buffers are dwindling and there’s no shortage of things to fret over, but if businesses are still hiring, it means demand is still there, and what explains that demand? Well, the robust labor market in part.

Until something comes along to short circuit that self-fulfilling prophecy, it may be more instructive to watch what consumers do rather than listen to what they say. People will generally complain if given the opportunity. Just ask any customer service representative who’s had the misfortune of hearing me on the other end of the phone.

As Peterson went on to note Tuesday, “The continued skepticism about the future is notable given US consumers — at least through the third quarter of this year — continued to spend heavily on both goods and services.”