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Featured

Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?

September 22, 2026
  • WTF: Buyer’s Market, Higher Prices?

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

    September 22, 2026September 22, 2026

Markets

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026

economy

The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Weekly: The Counterfactual

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Read The Paper

October 16, 2023October 17, 2023

A long time ago, in a galaxy far, far away, there were physical newspapers. I’m

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6 Comments on Read The Paper

Treasury Market Struggles With Unfamiliar Dynamic: Buyers Who Care About Price

October 16, 2023October 16, 2023

There’s a lot of focus on Treasury supply right now, and that’s an understatement. Last

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Where To Now For The Chinese Economy?

October 16, 2023October 17, 2023

I don’t know what to make of the Chinese economy these days, which puts me

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2 Comments on Where To Now For The Chinese Economy?

A Spread Worth Watching?

October 16, 2023

Who you gonna believe, gas prices or the labor market? Last week, the preliminary read

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1 Comment on A Spread Worth Watching?

Mike Wilson Says Bah Humbug To Santa Rally

October 16, 2023November 5, 2023

Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson isn’t convinced US equities are poised for a “Santa rally.” Wilson

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6 Comments on Mike Wilson Says Bah Humbug To Santa Rally

Are Markets Overestimating Right-Tail Risk?

October 15, 2023

It’s been all right-tail and no left- in recent weeks, according to option-implied, three-month ahead

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2 Comments on Are Markets Overestimating Right-Tail Risk?

Sell Cash, Buy Bonds?

October 15, 2023October 16, 2023

Who’s going to buy all the bonds?! Shrieked the audience. Although there’s still no firm

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2 Comments on Sell Cash, Buy Bonds?

Line Of Fed Speakers, Key Data In Focus As War Drums Beat

October 15, 2023November 5, 2023

Investors will get an update on consumer spending across the world’s largest economy this week,

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Tough Love

October 14, 2023October 16, 2023

Price discovery is a helluva thing. It’s also a normal thing. Or at least it

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7 Comments on Tough Love

Another Damned Holy War

October 14, 2023October 16, 2023

“It’s important, I think, that we all condemn the targeting of civilians in any form

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20 Comments on Another Damned Holy War

US Equity Funds Return To Outflows But Bullish Sentiment Jumps

October 13, 2023October 13, 2023

US equity-focused ETFs and mutual funds returned to outflows over the latest weekly reporting period.

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3 Comments on US Equity Funds Return To Outflows But Bullish Sentiment Jumps

Bonds In Limbo After Historic Crash

October 13, 2023October 15, 2023

A few days ago, I made the passing observation that if Fed officials are inclined

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3 Comments on Bonds In Limbo After Historic Crash

Bonds May Offer ‘Stock-Like’ Returns In 2024

October 13, 2023

Did you hear? Bonds could be set to offer “equity-like” returns in 2024. I’m serious.

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1 Comment on Bonds May Offer ‘Stock-Like’ Returns In 2024

Dimon’s ‘Dangerous World’ Warning Is Caveat To Solid JPMorgan Results

October 13, 2023November 5, 2023

“This may be the most dangerous time the world has seen in decades,” Jamie Dimon

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6 Comments on Dimon’s ‘Dangerous World’ Warning Is Caveat To Solid JPMorgan Results

Consumer Sentiment Darkens As Inflation Concerns Return

October 13, 2023October 14, 2023

US consumer sentiment deteriorated considerably in early October. The preliminary read on the University of

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In Gaza, Chaos

October 13, 2023October 14, 2023

Bad to worse. With more to come. Israel on Friday told 1.1 million people to

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29 Comments on In Gaza, Chaos

Money Fund Assets Remain Near Record. RRP Hits New Two-Year Low

October 12, 2023October 12, 2023

Money market funds assets remained near record highs in excess of $5.71 trillion in the

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A Quick Guide To Q3 Earnings Season

October 12, 2023

Earnings season kicks off in the US on Friday. Perhaps you heard. Most readers hopefully

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Bond Bear Roars Back

October 12, 2023October 13, 2023

Equities may be inclined to sustain a rebound from their late-summer swoon, and the odds

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1 Comment on Bond Bear Roars Back

Stocks Shrug At Warm Inflation Readings, But Unstable Bonds Pose Threat

October 12, 2023October 13, 2023

You could argue that stocks should’ve been meaningfully lower on the back of a warm

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Unknowable Consequences

October 12, 2023October 13, 2023

Should markets care about the Gaza Strip? I don’t know. Should anybody? The answer to

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8 Comments on Unknowable Consequences

CPI Refuses To Sound The All-Clear

October 12, 2023November 5, 2023

US consumer prices rose more than anticipated in September, data out Thursday showed. At 0.4%,

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1 Comment on CPI Refuses To Sound The All-Clear

Hawkish Or Cautious? Fed Minutes Suggest Both

October 11, 2023October 12, 2023

Several Fed officials were keen last month to shift the discussion around the policy rate

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Five Steps To A Santa Rally On Wall Street

October 11, 2023October 12, 2023

It all hinges on the evolution of the data, of course, but absent an inflation

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Two Mideast War Scenarios

October 11, 2023October 11, 2023

“An Israel-Hamas war would be tragic, but the impact on the global economy and markets

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2 Comments on Two Mideast War Scenarios

‘Highly Probable Fed Hikes Are Complete’: McElligott

October 11, 2023October 11, 2023

Have we seen the turning point for bonds? I hope so. I like being right

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Can Israel ‘Win’ A Ground War In Gaza?

October 11, 2023November 5, 2023

The death toll in Israel from the October 7 Hamas attacks rose to 1,200 on

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16 Comments on Can Israel ‘Win’ A Ground War In Gaza?

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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