Yen-sanity
The yen was on track for its weakest close in more than 30 years on
Robust Labor Market Severs Sentiment-Spending Link
US consumer confidence dropped to a five-month low in October, not surprising given dysfunction in
Labor Cost Measure Which Banished ‘Transitory’ Comes In Hot
A key measure of employment costs watched closely by the Fed rose more than expected
US Home Prices Hit New Records During Summer’s Dog Days
US home values rose more than expected during the dog days of summer, according to
Europe, China Struggle, Underscoring Stark Economic Divide With US
The increasingly stark divide between a still-thriving US economy and floundering activity in the rest
Kolanovic: ‘Pessimism Rising,’ EPS Estimates Too Rosy
“Investors’ pessimism is rising.” So said JPMorgan analysts led by Marko Kolanovic on Monday. It’s true.
The Santa Melt-Up Blueprint
In “Canaries And Key Levels” and also in “Stocks Look Beyond GDP Barnburner To Price
Two Things: The Borrowing Estimate And The BoJ
Good news. I guess. Treasury slashed its quarterly borrowing estimate on Monday, which I suppose
Refunding Drama: How We Got Here
As discussed here on too many occasions to count over the past week or two,
What Goldman Sees For US Inflation In 2024
Predictions are hard, especially about the future, as the old saying goes, but when you’re
Mike Wilson Doubles Down: No Santa Rally On Wall Street
Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson still doesn’t believe in a “Santa rally” on Wall Street. What
World’s Fourth-Largest Economy Stuck In ‘Twilight Zone’
The world’s fourth-largest economy remains stuck in the “Twilight Zone,” as one bank put it
A Quick Guide To The All-Important Treasury Refunding
This week’s Treasury financing estimate and refunding announcement are a big deal. Indeed, as discussed
Traders Brace For Macro Thriller As Huge Week Looms
It’s a hectic week for the macro community. A daunting bevy of data, including top-tier
Three Big Central Bank Decisions: What To Expect
The Fed will stay on hold this week. In a world plagued by terrifying uncertainty,
Canaries And Key Levels
Earlier this month, when the bank’s pseudo-famous “Bull & Bear Indicator” flashed a rare contrarian
Stocks Look Beyond GDP Barnburner To Price Slower Growth
We’ve entered “a new phase of the rising rate saga.” That’s according to Goldman’s David
‘Once Jobs Go, The Whole Cycle Goes’
“Sell the last hike.” That’s been the mantra for one of the sell-side’s most recognizable
‘The Biggest Flow Story Right Now’
Earlier this week, I highlighted ongoing inflows to the largest Treasury ETF amid more rates
‘The Greatest Credit Event Of All’
The greatest risk of all is a disorderly bear steepener. If you’re a longtime reader,
The Good Die Young
Li Keqiang, China’s de jure No. 2 leader for a decade, is no more. Li,
Spending Data Underscores Resilient Consumer Narrative
US consumer spending was more robust than expected in September, data released on Friday showed.
Money Market Fund Inflows Resume. RRP Near Two-Year Low
Money market funds recouped a portion of last week’s massive outflow in the week to
Amazon Sales Guidance, AWS Growth May Fail To Impress
Amazon managed to top sales estimates with Q3 results released after the bell in the
The 1969 Analogue
Readers have heard a lot (too much, maybe) from me on the bear steepener over
McElligott Sees ‘Big Problems’ For 2023 ‘Big Sharpe’ Trades
One risk headed into earnings was the abatement of the low bar dynamic. Low bars
US Economy Evinces No Recession Inclinations
The US economy expanded at a blistering 4.9% annual rate last quarter, according to the
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