Front-Running And Chicken-Counting
It's dangerous to count chickens.
That was one message from Austan Goolsbee, who regaled CBS’s Face the Nation with a hodgepodge of boilerplate talking points around inflation and the US macro outlook for 2024.
I mention Goolsbee's remarks not because he said anything worth mentioning (he didn't) but rather because Fed rhetoric may be sparse ahead of the holidays, and the market's trading quite aggressively vis-à-vis the rate trajectory for 2024.
Overzealous pricing for cuts goes a long
Has anyone been able to quantify the activities of private equity on soaring rents?
I’ve seen some folks try to quantify the bid from the buy-to-rent people by watching the percentage of all-cash buyers in the weekly housing sales numbers. Not the worst indicator, but it is clouded by buyers who just sold and need no financing as well as young buyers funded by “the bank of mom & dad” (Something that RIAs see all the time recently).
Back when I diligently followed the weekly stats, the total raw numbers were running around 15-16% of total home purchases. So really not enough for us who’d like to blame the PE guys.
I recall reading, several months ago, that investors represented 20% of house purchases in some areas (Sunbelt particularly). 20% is more than enough to move pricing. However, the big rental house REITs have now cut back on buying existing houses, in favor of build-to-rent.