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Featured

Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?

September 22, 2026
  • WTF: Buyer’s Market, Higher Prices?

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

    September 22, 2026September 22, 2026

Markets

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026

economy

The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Weekly: The Counterfactual

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

ECB’s Frantic Hike Out Of NIRP Ends. Future Uncertain

October 26, 2023October 27, 2023

The ECB kept rates steady on Thursday, as expected. The decision was notable. Or as

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Paradise

October 26, 2023October 27, 2023

Another day in what was a cosmically miraculous paradise prior to our species’ ruinous, tyrannical

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3 Comments on Paradise

Meta Beats, Reality Labs Bleeds

October 25, 2023October 26, 2023

Meta topped estimates in Q3 results released after the bell in the US on Wednesday.

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Any Old Mike Johnson Will Do

October 25, 2023October 26, 2023

Say congratulations to Republicans: They managed to elect a House speaker. I joked Tuesday that

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5 Comments on Any Old Mike Johnson Will Do

Confused Rhino

October 25, 2023October 26, 2023

Anyone in need of respite from the roller coaster that is the US bond market

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Largest Treasury ETF Is Market Obsession Amid Epic Bond Turmoil

October 25, 2023October 25, 2023

The largest Treasury ETF became a source of intense — and I’ll eschew the temptation

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Buyback Rebound Will Prove Elusive, BofA Suggests

October 25, 2023October 25, 2023

Buybacks: Who doesn’t love them? Buybacks are shareholder capitalism’s crowning achievement. It’s stockowners who matter

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2 Comments on Buyback Rebound Will Prove Elusive, BofA Suggests

The Perils Of Scandalizing Context

October 25, 2023November 5, 2023

Israeli diplomats, including Foreign Minister Eli Cohen and UN Ambassador Gilad Erdan, are furious with

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16 Comments on The Perils Of Scandalizing Context

New Home Sales Surge As Prices Plunge. Rates At 8%

October 25, 2023October 25, 2023

New home sales exploded higher in September, data released on Wednesday in the US showed.

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1 Comment on New Home Sales Surge As Prices Plunge. Rates At 8%

Microsoft, Alphabet Wave Large Numbers Around

October 24, 2023October 25, 2023

Microsoft topped sales and profit estimates with fiscal year Q1 results released after the bell

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4 Comments on Microsoft, Alphabet Wave Large Numbers Around

The Perils Of Price Discovery

October 24, 2023October 25, 2023

How important was the term premium in explaining the escalatory selloff in longer-dated US Treasurys

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1 Comment on The Perils Of Price Discovery

US Soft Landing ‘Likely,’ New PMIs Suggest

October 24, 2023October 25, 2023

Economic activity picked up this month in the US, preliminary PMI data released on Tuesday

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2 Comments on US Soft Landing ‘Likely,’ New PMIs Suggest

Vol Sellers Abound Ahead Of Mega-Cap Earnings

October 24, 2023October 24, 2023

Vol-selling across the equities options space was “unrelenting” late last week and early this week.

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Xi Shows Up At Central Bank, Ousts Defense Minister

October 24, 2023November 24, 2023

Xi Jinping made an unprecedented visit to China’s central bank on Tuesday and Beijing removed

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4 Comments on Xi Shows Up At Central Bank, Ousts Defense Minister

Dour PMIs Point To Entrenched Stagflation In Europe

October 24, 2023October 24, 2023

The eurozone economy is in a recession. Or something that looks a lot like a

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Why Marko Kolanovic And JPMorgan Are Still Cautious

October 23, 2023October 23, 2023

If you’re wondering why JPMorgan remains defensive in their asset allocation (and cautious in their

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Winning The Life Lottery

October 23, 2023October 24, 2023

Are we in a late-cycle backdrop? Or are we in the process of witnessing “immaculate

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7 Comments on Winning The Life Lottery

Thanks For Playing! Bill Ackman’s Bond Short Was Short-Lived

October 23, 2023November 5, 2023

Everybody look at Bill. Bill needs to be reminded how important he is. You can

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4 Comments on Thanks For Playing! Bill Ackman’s Bond Short Was Short-Lived

Are Stock Bears ‘Vindicated’?

October 23, 2023October 24, 2023

“Somewhat vindicated.” That’s how one mainstream financial media outlet described the persistently bearish view harbored

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1 Comment on Are Stock Bears ‘Vindicated’?

5%: US Treasurys Or GameStop?

October 23, 2023October 24, 2023

10-year US yields, the benchmark of all benchmarks, breached 5% on Monday for the first

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Swissy Never Lies

October 22, 2023

What’s the best hedge for geopolitical turmoil? That question’s a bit of a red herring.

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1 Comment on Swissy Never Lies

Don’t Forget The Mega-Caps

October 22, 2023October 23, 2023

What’s next for US equities? At the risk of stating the obvious, a lot depends

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4 Comments on Don’t Forget The Mega-Caps

US Prepares GDP Scorcher As Fed Goes Silent

October 22, 2023October 26, 2023

US economic exceptionalism should be on full display this week. The advance read on Q3

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1 Comment on US Prepares GDP Scorcher As Fed Goes Silent

An Unruly Kite

October 21, 2023October 23, 2023

Where’s the peak for 10-year US yields? That’s not just a question, it’s the question.

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For Whom The Bell Tolls

October 21, 2023October 23, 2023

Things are about to get real for corporates with a steep maturity wall. Even for

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1 Comment on For Whom The Bell Tolls

Why Friday’s Stock Selloff Got No VIX Response

October 20, 2023October 21, 2023

Remember the call spread buyer? If not, I won’t trouble you with the specifics on

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The World’s Burning. And US Treasurys Can’t Save You

October 20, 2023November 5, 2023

Shouldn’t US Treasurys rally in the face of the dangerous realities on display in the

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22 Comments on The World’s Burning. And US Treasurys Can’t Save You

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

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  • Rick Jones on Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?
  • WMD on ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks
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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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