With 2020 Halfway Over, ‘Markets Are Relying On Their Own Unique Take’
Halfway through — glass half empty or half full?
Halfway through — glass half empty or half full?
“The recent rebound in financial market sentiment appears disconnected from shifts in underlying economic prospects”.
“As a reminder, there are only two avenues out of a debt crisis – default or inflate”.
The “day-to-day focus really swings wildly”.
“We remain firmly in the camp that the economy is likely to experience a V-shaped recovery”.
The decline in foreign holdings is set against a backdrop of ballooning supply, but…
“As long as each and every one of us do our jobs well, and stay aware of personal hygiene”…
“Nothing else matters”.
Legacy long position in US rates and duration enters “a very dangerous space”.
“It’s the same lobster”.
“The mood remains ‘risk on'”.
“At the moment nothing seems to tire this equity market”.
“A red flag to a bull, even if it is bullish for assets”.
“…symptomatic of a euphoric stock market”.
“…the path of the S&P 500 through year-end is not likely to be smooth”.
“This is obviously what the market is debating right now in real-time”.
“Facts on the ground”.
The tail risk to end all tail risks?
Onward and upward for risk.
The long version.
“We are now experiencing a whole new level of uncertainty”.
“…we would need to see an unprecedented marriage where both monetary and fiscal policy align in a magnitude not previously experienced”.
“While the epidemic and markets largely followed our forecasts, politics emerged as a new and significant risk”.
“This would be perhaps the biggest surprise to markets.”
Of course, all the usual disclaimers apply.
“There is… no limit to what we can do with these lending programs”.
“The recovery began with the cautious lifting of the lockdown at the beginning of May, but…”
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