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Featured

Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?

September 22, 2026
  • WTF: Buyer’s Market, Higher Prices?

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

    September 22, 2026September 22, 2026

Markets

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026

economy

The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Weekly: The Counterfactual

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Macro-Stock Permutations For 2024

January 8, 2024January 9, 2024

“With growth remaining subdued, the onus is on accommodative policy, ample liquidity and lower/contained interest

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Leave a Comment on Macro-Stock Permutations For 2024

How Market Makers Cashed In On Jobs Day 0DTE Frenzy

January 8, 2024

It never gets old. Waking market participants up to what’s really going on behind the

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4 Comments on How Market Makers Cashed In On Jobs Day 0DTE Frenzy

Wilson: Lack Of ‘Forecast Dispersion’ Could Spell ‘High Variance’ In Asset Prices

January 8, 2024January 9, 2024

I’ve avoided being this blunt until now, but here it is: It doesn’t make a

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4 Comments on Wilson: Lack Of ‘Forecast Dispersion’ Could Spell ‘High Variance’ In Asset Prices

Israel Kills Hezbollah’s Wissam Al-Tawil In Significant Escalation

January 8, 2024January 9, 2024

Israel picked off another top enemy commander on Monday, when Wissam Al-Tawil (stage name “Hajj

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12 Comments on Israel Kills Hezbollah’s Wissam Al-Tawil In Significant Escalation

Revisiting America’s Institutional Credibility Crisis

January 7, 2024January 23, 2024

Over and over again, I find myself revisiting the notion that America’s experiencing an acute,

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5 Comments on Revisiting America’s Institutional Credibility Crisis

Inflation Week To Bring More Evidence Of Fed’s Pyrrhic Victory

January 7, 2024January 8, 2024

It’s inflation week in the US. Inflation data week, I mean. Every week is inflation

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2 Comments on Inflation Week To Bring More Evidence Of Fed’s Pyrrhic Victory

Where’s The Deep State When You Need It?

January 6, 2024January 8, 2024

Saturday was insurrection day in America. The third anniversary of the redneck rebellion. All across

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47 Comments on Where’s The Deep State When You Need It?

Delaying The Inevitable. Forever…

January 5, 2024January 8, 2024

Equities and bonds meandered rudderless into the weekend following a spate of inconclusive data out

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12 Comments on Delaying The Inevitable. Forever…

Mind SPX 4650

January 5, 2024January 5, 2024

Why do selloffs accelerate? In modern markets, the answer to that question is very often

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1 Comment on Mind SPX 4650

‘Key Services Sector Hiring Gauge Plunges!’ Is A Headline You’ll Probably Click

January 5, 2024January 7, 2024

To the extent markets needed an “offset” for a hot NFP print and a commensurately

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3 Comments on ‘Key Services Sector Hiring Gauge Plunges!’ Is A Headline You’ll Probably Click

Annoyingly Noisy Jobs Beat Dents Case For March Fed Cut

January 5, 2024January 23, 2024

Hiring accelerated across the world’s largest economy last month, the most important US jobs report

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11 Comments on Annoyingly Noisy Jobs Beat Dents Case For March Fed Cut

2024’s Most Important Market Events By Month

January 5, 2024January 6, 2024

Just two things matter for asset prices, BofA’s Michael Hartnett reminded investors, in the first

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1 Comment on 2024’s Most Important Market Events By Month

MMF AUM Surges, RRP At 31-Month Low, Free Money Fed Arb Still Enticing

January 4, 2024

Money market funds took in more than $78 billion in the week to January 3,

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It Was ISIS, In Iran, With The Explosive Belts

January 4, 2024January 23, 2024

It was Colonel Mustard, in the library with the candlestick. In the immediate aftermath of

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2 Comments on It Was ISIS, In Iran, With The Explosive Belts

US Sends Abu Taqwa To Meet The General

January 4, 2024January 5, 2024

Fire at will, apparently. A PMF leader was killed in Baghdad on Thursday, the latest

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3 Comments on US Sends Abu Taqwa To Meet The General

Janet Yellen, Not Jay Powell, Triggered Historic ‘Everything Rally’

January 4, 2024January 5, 2024

What (or who) turned the tide nine weeks ago for markets? Put differently, what was

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3 Comments on Janet Yellen, Not Jay Powell, Triggered Historic ‘Everything Rally’

US Jobs Market Declared Normal. Wage-Price Spiral Risk ‘All But Disappeared’

January 4, 2024January 5, 2024

Americans are still finding plenty of work across the world’s largest economy and wage growth

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6 Comments on US Jobs Market Declared Normal. Wage-Price Spiral Risk ‘All But Disappeared’

Twin Blasts At Soleimani Grave Kill Dozens On Assassination Anniversary

January 3, 2024January 23, 2024

Four years ago today, a very strange thing happened: Donald Trump killed Qassem Soleimani. That

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9 Comments on Twin Blasts At Soleimani Grave Kill Dozens On Assassination Anniversary

Fed, Like The Rest Of Us, ‘Perceives’ Lots Of Uncertainty

January 3, 2024January 4, 2024

The December FOMC minutes were hawkish. Sort of. Maybe. At the margins. That’s probably how

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2 Comments on Fed, Like The Rest Of Us, ‘Perceives’ Lots Of Uncertainty

Market Fireworks After New Year’s?

January 3, 2024

A week ago (maybe two, I can’t remember), one reader suggested that tracking vol dynamics

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3 Comments on Market Fireworks After New Year’s?

Macro Amuse-Bouche Is Snoozer As Markets Look To Payrolls

January 3, 2024January 4, 2024

The first of this week’s top-tier US macro data was profoundly uninteresting, where that means

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2 Comments on Macro Amuse-Bouche Is Snoozer As Markets Look To Payrolls

If You Need A Communist Publicist, Feng Shixin Needs A Job

January 3, 2024January 4, 2024

Feng Shixin’s looking for a job if you’re hiring. His resume includes a long stint

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Leave a Comment on If You Need A Communist Publicist, Feng Shixin Needs A Job

Stock Gains Still Possible In 2024 Despite One Down Day, Bulls Argue

January 2, 2024January 3, 2024

It’s still possible that US equities could log gains for 2024. The implication is completely

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6 Comments on Stock Gains Still Possible In 2024 Despite One Down Day, Bulls Argue

Saleh Al-Arouri, Pals Blown Apart In Beirut Drone Strike

January 2, 2024January 23, 2024

Saleh al-Arouri is all over Beirut. Literally. He was blown apart on Tuesday evening, likely

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2 Comments on Saleh Al-Arouri, Pals Blown Apart In Beirut Drone Strike

China Deploys 350 Billion Yuan In ‘Not QE’ To Halt Property Slump

January 2, 2024January 2, 2024

Don’t call it “QE.” The Party doesn’t like that. In a testament to ongoing concerns

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1 Comment on China Deploys 350 Billion Yuan In ‘Not QE’ To Halt Property Slump

Biden Strong-Armed Dutch Government, ASML On China Sales: Reports

January 2, 2024January 3, 2024

How many times have Biden administration officials suggested, implicitly or otherwise, that the goal of

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11 Comments on Biden Strong-Armed Dutch Government, ASML On China Sales: Reports

5 Dead In Tokyo Plane Collision. 48 Dead In Earthquake. South Korean Opposition Leader Knifed In Jugular

January 2, 2024January 3, 2024

“Plane bursts into flames while landing at airport in Tokyo.”  That was the first headline

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5 Comments on 5 Dead In Tokyo Plane Collision. 48 Dead In Earthquake. South Korean Opposition Leader Knifed In Jugular

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • Rick Jones on Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?
  • WMD on ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks
  • Engineer on Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?
  • NY Jeff on Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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