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Featured

Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?

September 22, 2026
  • WTF: Buyer’s Market, Higher Prices?

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

    September 22, 2026September 22, 2026

Markets

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026

economy

The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Weekly: The Counterfactual

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Expensive Houses, Falling Confidence

February 27, 2024February 28, 2024

US home prices are rising at the briskest annual rate since November of 2022 and

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The Fed Put’s Alive And Well

February 26, 2024February 26, 2024

Last month, I spent some time editorializing around a 2024 outlook piece which echoed many

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I Gotta Have More Magnificent 7

February 26, 2024February 28, 2024

I might’ve mentioned this last week. I honestly can’t remember. And no, any recollection failure

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1 Comment on I Gotta Have More Magnificent 7

One Bank Asks: Is The Tech Ecosystem Now Its Own Asset Class?

February 26, 2024February 27, 2024

People are beginning to ask some — how should I put this? — interesting questions

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2 Comments on One Bank Asks: Is The Tech Ecosystem Now Its Own Asset Class?

New Home Sales Meander Amid Intractable American Housing Conundrum

February 26, 2024February 27, 2024

New home sales in the US rose at just half the expected pace in January,

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6 Comments on New Home Sales Meander Amid Intractable American Housing Conundrum

Strategy For A Crucial, All-Important Week

February 26, 2024February 27, 2024

New week, same debates. The sparse color on offer Monday trod familiar ground as traders

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3 Comments on Strategy For A Crucial, All-Important Week

Magic Sauce

February 25, 2024February 26, 2024

I probably shouldn’t have read Warren Buffett’s annual letter. It only reminded me of the

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5 Comments on Magic Sauce

Is Nvidia Surge A ‘Blow-Off Top?’ If So, What’s Next?

February 25, 2024February 25, 2024

Are we witnessing a “blow-off top” in equities? To answer that, we have to define

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Inflation Test Looms As Stocks Ask, ‘Who Needs Rate Cuts, Anyway?’

February 25, 2024March 4, 2024

The schedule’s pretty crowded this week in the US. An update on the Fed’s preferred

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After Munger, Buffett Says Berkshire’s Size Rules Out Big Performance

February 24, 2024February 26, 2024

I’m going to dial back (which is to say omit entirely) the sarcasm and snark

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7 Comments on After Munger, Buffett Says Berkshire’s Size Rules Out Big Performance

Inflows To US Stock Funds Accelerate Amid AI Frenzy

February 23, 2024February 23, 2024

US equity-focused ETFs and mutual funds saw their largest inflow of the year over the

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Dynamics Of A ‘Never-Ending Stock Melt-Up’

February 23, 2024July 1, 2025

“A never-ending melt-up in index.” That’s what befuddled bears were pondering by the end of

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1 Comment on Dynamics Of A ‘Never-Ending Stock Melt-Up’

Fed Fails To Curb History’s Most Aggressive US Spending Recovery

February 23, 2024February 25, 2024

The Fed has a narrative. They have a lot of narratives, actually. But an oft-repeated

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1 Comment on Fed Fails To Curb History’s Most Aggressive US Spending Recovery

What Xi Jinping Can Learn From The Fed

February 23, 2024March 4, 2024

At some point this week, Nomura apparently cautioned those keen to pick the low in

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1 Comment on What Xi Jinping Can Learn From The Fed

Money Fund AUM Slips Second Week As Great MMF Debate Continues

February 22, 2024February 22, 2024

This week’s money market fund flows update was mostly uneventful, although it was notable for

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Don’t Short A Bubble Exhibit 275 Billion

February 22, 2024March 4, 2024

I don’t want to pile insult atop injury for the earnest skeptics and well-meaning bubble

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9 Comments on Don’t Short A Bubble Exhibit 275 Billion

In US Housing: Signs Of A Thaw Or False Dawn?

February 22, 2024February 23, 2024

Cue a procession of angels: US existing home sales notched a meaningful gain for the

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15 Comments on In US Housing: Signs Of A Thaw Or False Dawn?

US Economy Continues To Spurn Recession Banter

February 22, 2024February 23, 2024

Activity across the US manufacturing sector expanded at the briskest rate in 17 months in

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‘Nailed It’: McElligott On Nvidia

February 22, 2024February 23, 2024

“Nvidia nailed it.” So said Nomura’s Charlie McElligott on Thursday, as US equities looked for

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3 Comments on ‘Nailed It’: McElligott On Nvidia

In Japan: FOMO

February 22, 2024February 22, 2024

“Healthy.” That was one adjective bandied about Thursday, when the meteoric rally in Japanese equities

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2 Comments on In Japan: FOMO

Nvidia Beats Handily. Is It Enough?

February 21, 2024February 22, 2024

The fate of humanity hung in the balance on Wednesday afternoon in the US, where

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2 Comments on Nvidia Beats Handily. Is It Enough?

Why Nvidia Matters For Vol

February 21, 2024February 22, 2024

Wednesday was Nvidia day in the US. On the off chance you’re just coming out

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Minutes And Supply

February 21, 2024February 21, 2024

A couple of notables. The Fed minutes skewed hawkish and reception for Wednesday’s 20-year supply

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Marko Kolanovic Paints A Foreboding Picture

February 21, 2024February 23, 2024

JPMorgan’s Marko Kolanovic sees risks. Proliferating risks, not least of which is a rerun of

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5 Comments on Marko Kolanovic Paints A Foreboding Picture

Dangerously Narrow

February 21, 2024February 22, 2024

I’m tired of editorializing around mega-cap “tech” dominance and extreme market concentration. Honest to God

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3 Comments on Dangerously Narrow

China Goes To War With Quants, Bans Some Selling In Bid To Arrest Stock Rout

February 21, 2024February 22, 2024

I don’t want to overstate the case, but running a high frequency trading operation in

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4 Comments on China Goes To War With Quants, Bans Some Selling In Bid To Arrest Stock Rout

Are We Safe?

February 20, 2024February 21, 2024

“Are you safe?” I used to get that question a lot. It was either completely

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

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  • WMD on ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks
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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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