We’re going to need another revision.

The marquee gauge of US consumer moods came up short on Friday, when University of Michigan sentiment printed 77.9, down from the prior month’s 79.4 which counted as the best reading since summer of 2021.

Context is key. The last two months saw the headline print revised dramatically from the preliminary reading to the final release, February’s lower and March’s higher. So, 77.9 may or may not be indicative of the “actual” mood in April. Joe Biden will be hoping for another late-month stick save.

The expectations gauge was essentially unchanged in this month’s first release, leaving a deterioration in perceptions of current conditions to explain the drop on the headline.

“Consumers perceived few meaningful developments in the economy,” survey director Joanne Hsu said Friday.

That’s ironic: Because there have indeed been “meaningful developments” on the macro front, not least of which was a blockbuster payrolls release and another CPI overshoot.

Notwithstanding Hsu’s assessment, consumers have “perceived” at least one aspect of the prevailing macro environment: Stuff’s still expensive, and becoming more so.

Inflation expectations in the Michigan poll moved up on both horizons, with the critical five-year point rising to the high-end of the range at 3%.

That ain’t great, if readers will forgive the lapse into a colloquial cadence. That series matters to the Fed, and it matters a lot. It was just as much an overshoot on five-year University of Michigan inflation expectations in the preliminary read for June of 2022 that compelled the Fed to resort to 75bps rate-hike increments as it was a worrying CPI release on the same day.

Recall that the latest installment of the NY Fed’s consumer survey, released a few days ago, showed a second straight increase in medium-term inflation expectations. The two-month gain on that series counted as the most pronounced ever (it’s a relatively young survey, though).

Hsu described the increases on the Michigan series as “slight,” but conceded that consumers may be “frustrat[ed]” at the prospect of a “stalled” inflation slowdown.

Overall, she went on, Americas “are reserving judgment in light of the upcoming election, which, in the view of many consumers, could have a substantial impact on the trajectory of the economy.”