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Featured

Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?

September 22, 2026
  • WTF: Buyer’s Market, Higher Prices?

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks

    September 22, 2026
  • ‘Let The Oil Flow!’ Again!

    September 22, 2026September 22, 2026

Markets

There’s A Lot Riding On The Chips…

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Erstwhile Bear Confident In Year-End Stock Rally

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Wall Street’s Fata Morgana Risk

    September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • What Happens To Stocks If Treasury Yields Go To 6%?

    September 20, 2026September 21, 2026
  • ‘The House’ Humiliated As Yen Plunges

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026

economy

The Fed’s Never Been This Sure About The Jobs Market

September 21, 2026September 22, 2026
  • Weekly: The Counterfactual

    September 18, 2026September 20, 2026
  • A Mixed Read On A Grim Housing Market

    September 17, 2026September 19, 2026
  • Below 200k. Again.

    September 17, 2026September 18, 2026
  • Warsh Fed Hikes, Thank God

    September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

Geopolitics

A King In Washington

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

Achtung Baby

September 20, 2026September 21, 2026

The ‘Real-World’ Energy Shock’s Finally Here

September 19, 2026September 21, 2026

Duly Noted

Who’s Coming To Nashville?

September 19, 2026September 20, 2026

Builder Sentiment Crumbles As US Mortgage Rates Soar

September 16, 2026September 17, 2026

One Bear, Two Words

March 11, 2024March 12, 2024

“Ambiguity.” It’s pervasive. So said Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson on Monday, describing the macro-market backdrop.

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6 Comments on One Bear, Two Words

Is The BoJ About To Spoil Japan’s Record-Setting Stock Rally?

March 11, 2024March 12, 2024

Japanese equities have had a good run. And that’s an understatement. An entire generation of

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It’s Not The Economy, Stupid. Not This Time

March 10, 2024March 27, 2024

“As you can see, I’m African American.” So said a kindly gentlemen sitting next to

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6 Comments on It’s Not The Economy, Stupid. Not This Time

All Eyes Turn To US Inflation Report With Rate Cuts On The Line

March 10, 2024March 14, 2024

Come one, come all! “Super users” and novices alike! It’s CPI week in the US.

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3 Comments on All Eyes Turn To US Inflation Report With Rate Cuts On The Line

‘Magnificent 7’ Performance Has Never Been This Uneven

March 10, 2024March 11, 2024

Market commentary often treats the so-called “Magnificent 7” as a monolith. This year, it’s anything

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2 Comments on ‘Magnificent 7’ Performance Has Never Been This Uneven

Riding The Bubble

March 9, 2024March 11, 2024

By the end of jobs week in the US, market participants were still asking the

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Windfalls And Pitfalls

March 8, 2024March 11, 2024

There’s no respite for bears. Headed into the US jobs report, there were any number

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Global Equity Inflows Strongest In Two Years Amid Rally

March 8, 2024March 8, 2024

Equity-focused ETFs and mutual funds saw a seventh week of inflows amid what some describe

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US Jobs Report Offers Something For Everyone

March 8, 2024March 27, 2024

The US economy added more jobs than expected in February, while revisions trimmed the prior

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2 Comments on US Jobs Report Offers Something For Everyone

Jay’s Quotable

March 8, 2024March 10, 2024

Jerome Powell’s timeline for Fed confidence in the durability of the disinflation trajectory, and thereby

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2 Comments on Jay’s Quotable

Money Fund Assets Scale New Record. RRP Usage Falls Further

March 7, 2024March 7, 2024

Money market funds raked in another $18.65 billion in the week to March 6, an

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Bears Driven To Brink Of Extinction As Powell Promises Rate Cuts

March 7, 2024March 14, 2024

“When we do get that confidence — and we’re not far from it — it’ll

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11 Comments on Bears Driven To Brink Of Extinction As Powell Promises Rate Cuts

CRE Slow Burn

March 7, 2024March 9, 2024

America’s slow-burning commercial real estate crisis continues to produce a slow drip of headlines. Steve

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3 Comments on CRE Slow Burn

ECB On Hold, Says Inflation, Growth To Slow Further

March 7, 2024March 8, 2024

“Financing conditions are restrictive and the past interest rate increases continue to weigh on demand,

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2 Comments on ECB On Hold, Says Inflation, Growth To Slow Further

Dovish Data Turn Will Live Or Die By Payrolls

March 7, 2024March 8, 2024

Anyone hoping for a dovish round of data out of the US was pleased Thursday,

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‘Various Tricks,’ ‘Unimaginable Conflicts’

March 7, 2024March 8, 2024

Markets heard from Wang Yi on Thursday. Wang can be a little — how should

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A Word On America’s New Debt Milestone

March 6, 2024March 6, 2024

The Fed keeps insisting, in some cases against the evidence, that rate hikes are working

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No Surprises

March 6, 2024March 7, 2024

Surprise: There were no surprises to speak of from Jerome Powell’s congressional testimony on Wednesday.

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A Third World Country

March 6, 2024March 27, 2024

“They didn’t used to fight at night. Now they do. Because they have goggles.” That’s

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19 Comments on A Third World Country

The JOLTS Miracle Feels Exhausted

March 6, 2024March 7, 2024

Job openings were little changed from the prior month on the last business day of

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1 Comment on The JOLTS Miracle Feels Exhausted

Pay Growth For Job Switchers Accelerates In Otherwise Bland ADP Release

March 6, 2024March 7, 2024

Private sector US employers added 140,000 jobs in February, ADP said Wednesday. The headline was

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2 Comments on Pay Growth For Job Switchers Accelerates In Otherwise Bland ADP Release

Rally Trivia And Pivot Remorse

March 5, 2024March 6, 2024

Here’s a notable statistic: If US equities post gains during the final two months of

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1 Comment on Rally Trivia And Pivot Remorse

The Meme Stocks Are All Skewed Up

March 5, 2024March 5, 2024

The rally on Wall Street, which looked poised for a breather on Tuesday, may or

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1 Comment on The Meme Stocks Are All Skewed Up

An Obligatory Nod To Bitcoin’s New Record High

March 5, 2024March 14, 2024

Bitcoin hit a new record high on Tuesday. Maybe you noticed. I’m supposed to have

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7 Comments on An Obligatory Nod To Bitcoin’s New Record High

Conflicting Signals

March 5, 2024March 6, 2024

The incoming macro data’s not going to tell us a consistent story. Maybe we should

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Is Xi Jinping An Imbecile?

March 5, 2024March 6, 2024

There were precious few surprises on offer in Li Qiang’s first annual work report, delivered

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17 Comments on Is Xi Jinping An Imbecile?

Behind The ‘Bubble,’ Surging Cost Of Capital Forces Investor Rethink

March 4, 2024March 4, 2024

Rally skeptics and those with an affinity for crash prophecies spent the last couple of

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

  • WMD on ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks
  • Engineer on Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?
  • NY Jeff on Yeah, But Can It Draw A LEGO?
  • carbpow on ‘Do I Annihilate Iran, Drive Them Into Hell?’ Nobel Hopeful Asks

Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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