“Even as a matter of economics 101, the forthcoming $1.8 trillion of combined bond supply from the sales of the US Treasury ($1.2 trillion) and the QT-disgorgement of the Fed ($600 billion) is self-evidently enough to monkey-hammer the existing supply/demand balances, and thereby send yields soaring.”
“There’s no shortage of ways to autotune our thoughts and behavior as citizens and investors. Scripts, symbols, tribalism. Some come from our own minds and some from external sources. Some we force on others. But we always, always have a choice. Do we allow others to write our scripts?”
“These are the things that fund managers are expected to discuss, and they are often the right things to discuss. But if you have no justifiable idea whether the process itself should or will lead to outperformance, what the hell are you actually measuring?”
“And although I poke fun at myself, it’s no laughing matter.”
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“For context, Bitcoin’s collapse in value in early September was worse than the collapse in the value of the German mark at the start of the Weimar hyperinflation.”
“There’s no domesticated animal species that has had more of a reputational fall from grace than the sheep. To call someone a sheep today is just about the worst insult there is. To call someone a sheep is to call them stupid and — more pointedly — stupidly obedient and in thrall to some bad shepherd.”
“During the last couple of weeks I have noticed that often Nasdaq underperforms the broad market, and it looks more tired than Lindsay Lohan’s probation officer.”
Ok, I’m feeling like today is a day when I should try and vex as many readers as absolutely possible, and there’s no better way to maximize the hate mail than to deride gold and Bitcoin in the same post.
“As a negotiating strategy, Trump’s approach is utterly unsuited to the North Korean crisis. For one, it’s almost certain to fail.”
“What a bunch of superstitious hogwash.”
“Eerie, right? The dazzling and self-confident limitation of the man.”
“And I liked your editorial today, very nice. (Laughs.)”
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“…more importantly, the fundamental rules of commodity investing have been underappreciated both by us and by market participants.”
And so, with Rod Rosenstein having allegedly told the DoJ’s No. 3 that he may need to follow in Jeff Sessions’ footsteps by recusing himself from the Trump-Russia probe, the question is this: “just who is the DoJ’s No. 3”?
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“One should think of wealth as an instrument that enhances the persuasive power and influence of an individual. Being able to convince poor people to vote against their direct interests and in favor of the oligarchs, and to convert these things into laws and tax codes.”
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On the eve of Trump’s 100th day rally in Harrisburg, Pa., – which, as a reminder,
“My delusions about my mad bbq’ng skills are similar to everyone’s belief they are contrarians. Whether it is the NYSE specialist, the Chicago pit local, the Bay Street equity trader, the London credit specialist, or even the guy at home trading in his underwear, we are all consumed by these romantic narratives where we bravely battle the naive masses to nail the next great trade. But the reality is that we can’t all be contrarians. If we were, then it wouldn’t be contrarian”…
“The results suggest caution for U.S. equity investors next month, with a forecast return of -1.3%. Since 1991, there have been seven prior negative forecasts for May. The average return of those months has been -1.29% with a median of -0.91%. Four of the seven delivered negative returns.”
You can’t cure stupid. Which means the irony inherent in paying billions of taxpayer dollars to
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One of the data points I’ve been warning about for sometime now is the relationship
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