“Over the last two years the FOMC appeared to take an asymmetric approach to policy, with a greater willingness to slow the pace of rate increases than to the speed them up. Now that the economy looks much closer to the Fed’s objectives, the FOMC may approach policy decisions more symmetrically.”
Category: yellen
More Trouble
I don’t know if maybe you noticed, but this is playing out exactly like I
Dammit, Who’s “Sherlock” Here? BofAML Weighs In On A Fed That’s Behind The Curve
“While this has allowed the Fed to have its cake and eat it too at the March meeting, in our view there could be a bigger sign from the markets to the Fed: financial conditions could be at the cusp of signaling that policy is behind the curve.”
Chart Check: When 94% Isn’t Enough
“That’s what I thought”…
Goldman’s Warning: “The ‘Yellen Call’ Is Back In The Money”
“As Fed speak over the past few weeks makes clear, the ‘Trump rally’ has aggressively pushed the ‘Yellen call’ back into the money, as we feared.”
Trump To Fed: “Bow Down To Caesar” Or Risk “Horrifying Misstep”
“The institutional threats they face make the thought of any misstep horrifying. With all of the sniping from other parts of Washington and the looming new appointments, they understand the need to be the perfect Caesar’s wife. A lot to ask as they disengage the policy auto-pilot of the last eight years.”
No Trouble In Little China And Nothing Doing In Oz
It was a relatively quiet overnight session on the news front, although you wouldn’t know
Now Or Never
“Way” back on Tuesday in “No, Janet Yellen Does Not Need To Wait On Donald
Goldman Says March Hike A “Done Deal,” Raises Odds To 95%
“As a result, we now see a hike at the March meeting as close to a done deal, and have raised our subjective probability to 95%.”
The Queen Bee Speaks: Full Yellen Summary
“Fed Chair Janet Yellen says an increase in fed funds rate will likely be appropriate at FOMC’s March 14-15 meeting if policy makers determine that employment, inflation continue to evolve in line with expectations.”
One Bank Asks: “Where Have All The Doves Gone”?
One of the things you might have noticed is that the Fed is looking at a
“It’s The Reflation Trade, Baby!” These Are The Levels To Watch On Friday
“If two-year Treasury yields close above 1.3% but 10-year yields linger below 2.5%, then a hike is expected but it’s being perceived as a potential policy mistake. If we close above both levels, it’s the reflation trade, baby.”
“Fairly Soon” Means “Fairly Soon”: March Odds Spike On Spate Of Super Aggressive Fedspeak
As you might have noticed, the reflation narrative got a boost after hours when comments from
Dollar Pulled Between Minutes And Mnuchin, Crude Hopes For Bullish EIA Print
Ok so it’s Thursday morning and everyone has generally come around to what I said
No, Those Fed Minutes Were Not Hawkish
Following the release of the latest Fed Minutes, I was exceedingly amused to watch as seemingly every commentator one cared to (virtually) consult tried to put a hawkish spin on things. That is of course consistent with what Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow described overnight as a “hawkish retelling” of an otherwise dovish statement.
Confusion In The Air After Fed Minutes
FOMC TO START BALANCE SHEET DEBATE AT UPCOMING MEETINGS
MOST FED OFFICIALS JUDGED GRADUAL RATE HIKE PACE APPROPRIATE
FOMC SEES DOWNSIDE RISK FROM STRONG DOLLAR
Dollar On A Harker High, European Economy Hums Despite Political Turmoil, Kuroda Continues To Confuse
Well, that escalated quickly. It wasn’t hard to predict what would set the tone overnight.
Here’s What’s Coming Up For Markets
“Don’t be fooled by the the holiday-shortened trading week in the US. Next week promises to give investors plenty to watch, including the Greek bailout, minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting, Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s testimony, retail earnings and Warren Buffett’s annual letter.”
Did The Market Misread The Most Important Event Of The Week?
So we got a hawkish Yellen on Capitol Hill. Or did we?
The Week That Was: “The Hardest Thing To Do Is Justify Hedging”
Well, it’s been one hell of a week. We started on a sugar high thanks
Albert Edwards Really Wants To Bitch At Janet Yellen, But He’s Going To Talk About Copper Instead
Last week, everyone’s favorite bear Albert Edwards tried to warn us. But did we listen?
Entire World Scrambles To Figure Out Why The Hell The Dollar Isn’t Stronger On Thursday
So what gives? Well, probably not a lot. It could just be everyone is taking a breather. But, in a testament to Nassim Taleb’s “narrative fallacy” argument, we have an overwhelming tendency to ascribe “causes” where there are none.
Yuuuge Inflation Print Sends Dollar, March Odds, Yields Soaring
Going into the week it was all about two things: Yellen on Capitol Hill and
“Bigly”: Reflation Is Back As Dollar Rises, Global Stocks Rally, Oil Eyes EIA Data
Apparently, reports of the reflation meme’s demise were greatly exaggerated. It wasn’t too long ago
That Was “Easily The Most Hawkish” Yellen We’ve Ever Seen
“Yellen’s remarks in Senate testimony were the trigger point for a market that may have been short dollars, a trader in London said, while Amherst Pierpont’s Stephen Stanley described them as ‘easily the most hawkish message’ that she has delivered as Fed chair.”
Algos Go Nuts As Word “Hike” Makes Appearance On Capitol Hill
The machines were ready…
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