Think back to February 9, when Donald Trump was telling airline executives about how they’ve “done an amazing job,” and about how, much like the President himself, they’re “under pressure from a lot of foreign elements.”
Category: S&P 500
It’s The End Of The Quarter, Do You Know Where Your Money Is?
“While the Bloomberg Dollar index edged up to the highest level in more than a week on Friday as supporting month-end flows outweighed profit-taking interest after yesterday’s rally, this is still on track to be the worst quarter in a year for the index. By contrast, gold is heading for its best quarter in a year.”
One Trader Would Really Appreciate It If You’d Stop Telling Him The Sky Is Falling
“First of all, other than having the dubious honor of calling the coming catastrophe, why this insistence on hoping to find it behind every sell order? There will be plenty to write about when it happens.”
Thursday: You Only Need One Chart
A little (possibly coordinated) help from i) a Fed that’s rolling out a cautiously hawkish message (again), ii) an ECB that’s suddenly walking back its hawkishness (i.e. leaning dovish – again), iii) some underwhelming inflation data out of Germany, iv) a subsequent widening of UST-Bund spreads, all conspiring to support the dollar, and just like that… f*cking presto… higher stocks as the reflation meme is viable again.
Chart Of The Day: Buy-The-Dip’s Existential Crisis
Submitted for your (dis)approval.
Reflation Frustration: Bloomberg Explains The Market’s Most Important Dynamic
We’ve talked so much in these pages about why cross-asset correlations matter that our (digital) pens are dry and our (virtual) voices are hoarse. On Thursday, Bloomberg proves they know this is “kind of a big deal.”
Trader: “Here’s Why I Don’t Believe In This Stock Bounce”
“If the market doesn’t go some way to validating that view today, then I’ll be spending tomorrow analyzing what I got wrong or what bullish driver I underestimated.”
One Trader Asks: “Jeez Louise, Is It Only Thursday?”
Having spent Monday contemplating how and why traders have lost their confidence, Tuesday explaining that
Margin Debt Hits Record $530 Billion Or, 1 Whole Microsoft
“The recent buildup is not in itself problematic or evidence of a substantive change in usage of leverage.”
“‘Buy-The-Dip’: Definitely My Favorite Sin”
And then… and then you bought the dip.
‘Bigly’ Earnings Growth “Isn’t A Fantasy” Because Wall Street Says It Will Eventually Be Real
“For the first time since 2011, hopes for double-digit growth in U.S. earnings aren’t a fantasy [because] Wall Street analysts have been standing firm on forecasts.”
Volatility Collapses (Again) As Investors Cling To Goldilocks Outlook On Brexit Wednesday
It’s quiet out there. Well, except for that whole UK officially leaving the EU thing.
Trader: You’re “An Emotional Train Wreck” – But Buying-The-Dip Might Help
“Decide questions for yourself like whether global growth is expanding or not? At the end of the day is there likely to be additional or less quantitative easing pumped into the system? Are sovereign wealth funds apt to continue to increase their commitment to global equities or go back to sovereign debt coupon clipping?”
Buy-The-Dip In Danger From “Politicians Who Want To Change The Liberal Order”
“Just as the Federal Reserve is finally taking the plunge, and as a new wave of politicians in the US and Europe look bent on redefining anything from haircuts and dress codes to the pillars of the Western liberal order, any talk of ‘mean reversion’ seems a bit out of sync.”
“Keep Your Composure!” Dollar Finds Its Footing, Markets Dodge Trump-Induced “Freak Out”
“We’ve come too far, there’s too much to lose!”
“The Sky Is Falling”: When Stocks Go Down, Everyone Panics
“And don’t let anyone try to tell you that stock-market pullbacks, including modest ones, are something investors and policy makers can now handle with aplomb. You can calculate financial-conditions indices with all sorts of back-fitted weightings but when stocks go down, everyone still goes into “The sky is falling†mode.”
How To Beat Warren Buffett (And SPY) Working Only 40 Days Per Year
Last week in “How To Exploit The Passive Herd With One Simple Strategy,” we highlighted
Here’s The One Strategy That May Work When “There’s Plenty To Be Bearish About”
“There is plenty to be bearish about. Equity valuations are tortuously high, with median valuations in the US and Europe near or at record highs, particularly once debt is included.”
“Do You See What Happens?!” One Bank Explains The “Implications” Of Failure Friday
“What are the asset pricing implications of what happened on Friday?”
It’s Falling Apart: Reflation Trade Shrivels Up And Dies As Markets Sour On Risk
Well, the dollar is under pressure on Monday, just as we said it would be
“Traders Have Lost Confidence In Their Ability To Trade,” Trader Says
“Traders have lost confidence in their ability to interpret what’s plainly market-moving news. Far from hoping to be the first to trade, they need someone else to commit and help create the narrative.”
Trader: “The Love Has Faded. Get Ready For Long, Tough Week”
Last week, the narrative cracked. To be sure, anyone who pays attention to this sh*t
So You Want An Excuse To Prefer Stocks Over Bonds? Fine, Here’s One
Listen, it’s all about “relative” attractiveness these days when it comes to assessing opportunities at
One Bank Warns: The “Dark Side” Has Reappeared Just As “The Force” Looks Weak
“The dark side – protectionism – reappeared at the G20, just when the force – hope of a bold US fiscal plan – is looking weaker. This has hurt risk sentiment a bit, helping bonds find their feet. We see that as temporary profit taking on crowded trades, rather than a fullblown reversal.”
On This Measure, Stocks Are The Second Most Expensive In History
If you, like me, have argued that stocks probably won’t rise much further because investors can’t
“Hope”: Health Bill Failure Isn’t Death Knell For Trump Trade, One Bank Says
We’ve said it before and we’ll say it again: one-way bets and crowded trades are
Chart Check: “This Should Be Fine”
Yeah, this should work out fine… (Goldman)
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