One Trader Would Really Appreciate It If You’d Stop Telling Him The Sky Is Falling

It’s the end of the month and quarter-end and maybe you need to get ahold of yourself.

Or at least that’s what Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow thinks on Friday. The former FX trader, who has penned no shortage of amusing and colorful missives this week, thinks perhaps you have lost your grip on reality with all the doomsday talk. And if it’s all the same, he’d prefer you just shut your mouth and accept the fact that things aren’t all that bad. In fact, quite the contrary.

Besides, being the one who “called a catastrophe” is a”dubious honor” in the first place.

Via Bloomberg

We really need to get a grip. Today’s quarter-end and whether you like it or not, markets are looking pretty good. It’s just not profitable to insist on describing every price gyration in apocalyptic terms.

  • First of all, other than having the dubious honor of calling the coming catastrophe, why this insistence on hoping to find it behind every sell order? There will be plenty to write about when it happens. Secondly, you leave just too much money on the table by not seizing the opportunities at hand. Concern about bubbles and popular delusions is very different than tilting at possible, potential, inevitable policy mistakes somewhere down the road
  • “The dollar suffered its worst quarter in a year on fear the Trump trades are dead” goes a common theme. It’s down, but let’s be fair, not by a whole lot and not enough to scare out anyone making long-term investments. What’s more important than the move lower is how convincingly it held support, with ease, when its demise was crowingly expected
  • It’s down more against the broader Bloomberg index because emerging markets continued to do really well. That’s a good thing, implying sustained optimism for global growth. And believe it or not, somehow, for international trade
  • Equities have had a bit of a ride. I’ve no idea where they go from here. But they too have held the higher end of where they needed to find support. Failing to close the month at a new all-time high isn’t an indication of disease. Indeed it may be a healthy sign to everyone but shorter-term looking technicians
  • Treasury yields, at the end of the day, are as stable as they probably can be. If the 2017 chart was a heart monitor they’d be sending the patient home. Still, in a very subtle way, 10-year yields have managed in March to have a higher high and low. Corporate new issuance goes on unabated or hindered
  • There are many things to be justifiably worried about, but they haven’t been the trade so far this year. Keep asking yourself what will drive long-term investing decisions. At the end of the day they’re the only ones that matter. Outside that, play with the mood swings instead of letting them toy with you
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