“It is often the case that simply identifying a market anomaly can eliminate it as arbitrageurs take advantage of the perceived opportunity.”
Category: S&P 500
“America, Fuck Yeah!” Congress Thinks Funding Government May Be Good Idea After All
Last week, it was starting to look like traders had reached peak negativity with regard
Goldman Delivers The Worst Possible News: “The Buyback Party Has Ended”
“Following years of prioritizing repurchases as a use of cash, corporations actually cut annual spending on buybacks by 11% in 2016 and executions YTD have plunged by 20% vs. last year. Meanwhile, authorizations YTD for new programs are proceeding at the slowest pace in five years.”
Goldman Presents The Great “Fade” Trade
“This phase peaked at the end of January this year – we have entered a ‘reflation pausation’. We think this is the result of a combination of worries: (1) Disappointing hard data vs. soft data so far, in particular core CPI, (2) commodity recovery fading and base effect on headline inflation rolling off, (3) Trump optimism fading, (4) European politics moving into the hot phase, and (5) first signs of growth momentum slowing.”
Sell In May? One Strategist Looked At The Evidence
“The results suggest caution for U.S. equity investors next month, with a forecast return of -1.3%. Since 1991, there have been seven prior negative forecasts for May. The average return of those months has been -1.29% with a median of -0.91%. Four of the seven delivered negative returns.”
Does This Market Have Bad Brea(d)th?
“Some investors worry that the index’s earnings and price rely too heavily on a small number of companies, making the broad market vulnerable to a potential shock suffered by one of those firms.”
How Long Can This Last? One Simple Reason To Favor Overseas Stocks Vs The S&P
It’s past the closing bell on the east coast which means most people have already decided to stop thinking for the day, so rather than run through the entire list, how about one easy chart?…
One Analyst Compared US Stocks To European Stocks – Here’s What He Found
So one of the things we (and others) noted going into the first round of
Just Ignore This Chart
“The post-election rise in expectations for year-ahead returns has materially outpaced their relatively sober assessments of valuation.”
Today’s Word Is “Bigly”: Here Comes Trump’s Terrific, Tremendous, Tax Plan
Today’s word is “bigly.” No wait, “phenomenal.” No wait, “massive.” Yeah, that’s it. “Massive.” All
It’s Tuesday And This Market “Sees No Demons”
“With French political risk significantly reduced (even if there’s still a two-week second round campaign to negotiate), an improving global economy, steadier oil prices, and most of all, range-bound US yields and a lack of fear of rapid Fed tightening, investors see few demons and are off in search of yield.”
Hellz Yeah! European Stocks Explode, US Set To Rally As Market Celebrates Macron
The final tally was Macron 23.75%, Le Pen 21.53% and to say markets are relieved
Trader: “Presto Chango!” All Is (Not) “Right” In The World
“Springtime in Paris can indeed be very enchanting.”
Risk-On! S&P Futs Jump, Treasurys Dumped With Yen As Markets Cheer Macron
As tipped by the knee-jerk reaction in EURUSD and EURJPY, the “market-friendly” outcome from the
Friday Night Reading From Goldman: Here’s What Clients Are Talking About
After a one-week holiday hiatus, Goldman’s David Kostin and crew are back with their weekly
How Do I Not Love Thee US Stocks, Let Credit Suisse Count The Ways
“US equity underperformance has been rare in recent years, but year-to-date, US equities have underperformed global equities by around 0.7% in USD terms. We reiterate our underweight stance, and view the challenges for US equities in a global context as the following”…
Guest Post: The Best Unknown Indicator
“It’s tough for me to put this down on paper, but really, the proper bet is to assume Yardeni’s model will once again prove correct, and buy stocks.”
Goldman Presents A Perfect Storm For S&P 500 Valuations
“Since 1985, an increase in the rate of inflation has led to contracting P/E multiples. S&P 500 forward P/E averages around 17x when core CPI is between the 2%-3% range but averages below 10x when core CPI rises above 5%.”
“OPEC Has A Deal!” Buy Euros! Wait, There’s A French Election? Welcome To Thursday.
Let’s start with oil real quick, because there are some notable headlines on Thursday morning.
Passion Of The Trader: Jesus, We’re Getting “Crucified” Out Here
“All of which means traders have been getting crucified when trying to express long-term views.”
Yesterday, “The Direction Of Choice Was Down,” But Today “The Future Is Bright”
“Hyped tail risks keep failing to materialize as we overcome multiple hurdles.”
Goldman: Your Favorite Stock ETF May Be Creating A Gross Misallocation Of Capital
At the risk of turning Monday into “Heisenberg’s anti-ETF crusade” day, I’m going to show
Fortune Cookie Say: “Good Econ Data!” The Sultan Returns. Welcome To Monday.
Boom! It’s Monday. Let’s hit the ground running.
Trader: “Down Should Be The Direction Of Choice For US Stocks”
“Despite a Fed rate hike, a confluence of geopolitical risks, a correction in commodity prices, high profile policy setbacks in the U.S., the failure of most 2017 consensus trades and disappointing hard economic data, U.S. equities are not finding the path lower an easy one.”
Here Are Goldman’s “25 Tactical Trades” For Earnings Season
Ok, so who’s excited about earnings season? If you raised your hand, then Goldman has
“All’s Well That Doesn’t End In A Giant Mushroom Cloud”
Well, you know what they say, “all’s well that doesn’t end in a giant mushroom
Trader: Shut That Lyin’ Mouth And “Get ‘Em While They’re Hot”
“Too many commentators have fallen into the “everything is binary†trap and decided that if you assume each event will end badly, there’s material to turn out a good rant”
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