“Our reading of the US situation is that, while persistently worrying at the political and diplomatic levels, it is close to Goldilocks at the economic level. The sub-2.5% GDP growth allows the Fed to tighten “only†moderately, and this is a clear burden to the US dollar and a trigger for risk-taking elsewhere.”
Category: S&P 500
Albert Edwards Wins 14th Straight Award, Leaves Haters Salty, Makes Dire Prediction
“If this is, as we strongly believe, an aberration and the equity yield reconnects with the red dotted arrow, then investors should be petrified of the next equity bear market.”
This Is “A Worrying Development”: OECD Compares US Stock Bubble To “Dot-Com Boom”
“In excess of fundamentals”…
Trader: “There’s So Much Going On People Are Dealing With It By Blocking It Out”
“In reality, there’s so much going on that people are dealing with it by blocking it all out. It’s an added allure of index funds. You get to decry villainy and irrationality while simultaneously investing in it under the guise of having no choice.”
Terrorist “Troublemakers” Storm Overnight Session, Murder 12 In Iran Ahead Of “Super Thursday”
Well, it was a quiet overnight session right up until around 2 a.m. EST when
Chart Of The Week: Some Folks Are Trying To Pick Stocks Again
Right, so the thing about “alpha” is that it’s really fucking hard to generate when
BofAML: “Warning: If US Rates Market Is Right, Everything Else Is Mispriced”
“The fact that UST 10y rates have traded in a very tight range for the last two months has been interpreted as a reassuring signal for carry trades everywhere. In fact it should be a warning signal.”
Deutsche Bank: The S&P Has Only Done This 8 Times In 89 Years
“Such tight trading ranges for the S&P 500 that extended for 3 months or longer have been very unusual historically, with only 8 such comparable prior episodes (since 1928).”
Safety Sought: Yen Rallies As Markets Nervously Eye Potentially Dangerous Thursday
So on Sunday, in our week ahead preview, we noted that Thursday would bring a
“Hope” Versus “Reality”: Goldman Says S&P To Fall 6%
“Hope led the market to 2400 in 1Q but reality supports a 2300 year-end target.”
Guest Post: Betting Against History
So I ask you, with Central Bankers determined to create inflation, why on earth would you want to hold cash? For this trade to work, you have to assume Central Bankers will suddenly change their tune and be willing to preserve the purchasing power of money.”
This May Be “The Scariest Chart” In The World
Were you looking for another reason to be wary of US equities? Look no further…
“How Long Will Financial Assets March Higher?” BofAML Has A Simple Answer
I’ve got a question for you on Sunday. Here it is: are you someone who
Deutsche Bank: “Path Of Least Resistance” Is For Everything To Rally
“The conclusion is that the Fed can’t do a lot that appears credible to the market. The path of least resistance is therefore a soggy dollar, low yields and robust equities.”
Nikkei Tops 20,000 On Batshit Crazy BoJ Balance Sheet; Global Stocks Rise Ahead Of Jobs
Well, the Nikkei crossed 20,000 for the first time since 2015 overnight. And really, why
Goldman: Here’s How To Play Upcoming Catalysts With ETF Options
“In fact, S&P500 (SPY) 1m implied volatility of 8% is near its pre-sell off level, and most sector ETFs have followed suit.”
SocGen: “Any Shift In Equity Volatility Could Be Ruinous”
“However today, US equity markets and debt markets are at odds with each other, US equity market investors are avoiding stocks with poor balance sheets, yet high yield bond yields are down at historical lows.”
Pimco’s Balls On Markets: “You’re Too Relaxed. Raise Cash Now.”
Balls: “We believe that many market participants today are too relaxed, that medium-term risks are building.”
Guest Post: Are Stock Traders Actually The Pessimists Here?
“Could it be utility stocks smell the coming economic slowdown ahead of the bond market?”
Just 10 Stocks Account For Half The S&P’s 2017 Gain: “We’ve Reached A Limit”
“At 17pp above the average since 2003, it would be unusual for this outsized 47% contribution to increase even further.”
One Bank Sums Things Up: “Equities Are The Last One Standing”
This is something I hope you already know.
Goldman Has Some ‘Cheap’ Options Advice For You On Tuesday
Right, so earlier today we noted that just a few weeks after everything was supposed
“The Honeymoon Period Is Over” – Bullard Ain’t Buyin’ Trump And Other Overnight News
“Washington does have to deliver at some point and I think that is a concern going forward, whether the honeymoon period would end at some point and maybe the reality of American politics would settle in.”
“But Then Who Would Care?”: Explaining The Business Of Being A Market Cynic
“If this whole thing truly does come apart at the seams, we’ll be out of business.”
Everything You Need To Know For The Week Ahead
Well, it’s Sunday which means normally, you’d be thinking about Monday, but this weekend you
“Political Immunity” And Markets
“Technical factors and central bank liquidity have allowed markets to suspend disbelief.”
Guest Post: Romance Is For Losers
“This is what trading is all about. We are constantly battling what we want to do, and what we should do. Even those who understand the game exceptionally well, are constantly battling their own inner demons.”
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