“Hope” Versus “Reality”: Goldman Says S&P To Fall 6%

I’m quite confident that this will fall of deaf ears in a market dominated by mindless dip-buyers who have decided the phrase “against my better judgement” is always the right way to think about buying overvalued financial assets, but for anyone interested, Goldman is out with a new presentation warning that “hope led the market to 2400 in 1Q but reality supports a 2300 year-end target.”

There are now effectively “two Americas,” the bank writes – one inside the Beltway and one outside:

Policy gridlock and high volatility inside the beltway but economic growth and low volatility outside of Washington, DC.

To be sure, there are a lot of pretty charts in Goldman’s Powerpoint and if you can get your hands on it, it’s worth a skim, but for all the analysis and recos, the 30,000 foot view is pretty goddamn simple and can be summed up as follows: “what goes up…

Here’s the only slide you need:

GSPath

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