To be sure, traders and investors were left to cope with conflicting signals in the
Category: S&P 500
Liquidation Event?
“…there is less apparent effect for the SPX, but taken together with the behavior of the level of rates and curve slope, the modest depression in SPX at roughly the same post-storm horizon could also be consistent with some asset liquidation.”
The Question Every Goldman Client Is Asking: ‘Is An Equity Correction Imminent?’
“The question every client asks: ‘Is an equity correction imminent?’ The impetus for the inquiry comes from several sources”…
‘The Clocks Stopped At 1:17’…
Ok, get ready.
For now, the fiscal-chaos-can has been kicked, Harvey is behind us, and North Korea’s latest nuclear test has come and gone.
But dead ahead is Irma’s landfall in Florida, North Korea’s “founding day” (which by most accounts will be “celebrated” with an ICBM launch), and of course, more gridlock in D.C. We are, figuratively and literally, in the eye of the storm on Friday.
Trader: ‘There’s Only One Thing Standing Between This And A Full-Blown Panic’
“It grates on everything I believe, but this would be a good day to avoid putting yourself at the mercy of the algorithms. They don’t understand that while you can set a fire, arranging for a hurricane is another order of difficulty.”
Ok, So What Now?
Just one more day of this before the weekend, when we’ll all get to put up the plywood and hide in the basement as Irma turns Florida into Atlantis and Kim turns Tokyo into Dresden…
‘Bubble Music Is Playing’ In Financial Engineering
“That nonfinancial debt is near all-time highs as the capex share of GDP approaches 45- year lows suggests that the “Bubbles” music is playing, even if the Fed and other central banks cannot hear it.”
It’s Falling Apart: Yields Hit YTD Lows, Stocks Fall As Reality Sets In
“Hope” meets reality, where “reality” means hurricanes, missiles, recalcitrant lawmakers, Fed indeterminacy, and on, and on…
‘Monday Could Look Very Different From Friday’
“There was a lot of market-moving news yesterday. More to come. Unfortunately for traders, the two items with the biggest potential lasting effects are virtually impossible to handicap. And to make matters worse, we won’t know their punch-line until the weekend: when markets are closed for business.”
Nosebleed.
The other possibility here is that by persisting in this, we’re exhausting our capacity to respond to future crises. Of course, if one waits around long enough, another crisis is bound to occur. When that happens not only will we be short on ammunition (e.g. if the next crisis started tomorrow, we’d be going into it from ZIRP/NIRP and with already bloated CB balance sheets), we’ll also be approaching it from nosebleed levels thanks largely to the fact that we never exited the state of exception instituted to cope with the previous crisis.
Boris The Bullet-Dodger.
Seemingly unwilling to risk any further damage to his already low approval ratings, Trump ultimately
Goldman: S&P To Fall To 2,400 By Year-End
Ok, Goldman is out on Wednesday with a visual update on their outlook for stocks
Death By A Thousand Cuts.
The bottom line is that between another powerful hurricane approaching the U.S. mainland, U.S. markets catching up with their global counterparts in terms of pricing in North Korea after the long weekend, the DACA decision which portends more bickering in Washington, and the looming debt ceiling debate (with the specter of a technical default showing up in today’s decidedly poor 4-week bill auction), it was death by a thousand cuts.
Stocks Fall, VIX Spikes As DACA News Adds To List Of Worries
It’s safe to say that the market is pricing in some kind of political risk
Since 2001…
These concerns have found expression in cautious notes from Goldman and lengthy missives penned by the likes of Howard Marks, who in July implicitly compared the current environment to the “perpetual motion machine” that was at work just prior to the dot-com bust.
‘Nuclear Reaction’: S&P, Nikkei Futs Fall, Gold Rises As Markets Warily Eye Pyongyang
These things have a way of reversing themselves in the overnight as investors have been conditioned to fade the initial reaction to North Korea news, but that will be tested given the severity of the provocation.Â
Who’s Excited About Stocks?! I Mean, Besides This Guy…
No, but seriously, the Nasdaq hit a new all-time high on Friday and equities managed to come out of August largely unscathed after risk assets passed a trial by fire (and fury) with flying colors.
Notably, the latest CFTC data shows that traders…
The Selloff That Never Came: ‘Of Politics And Pullbacks’
One of the defining characteristics of the ongoing risk rally over the past 14 months
Holiday Road.
“Well, that’s nothing to be proud of, Rusty…. 50 yaaaards.”
Riders On The Storm.
Right, so the storm wasn’t supposed to come until next month.
Soros Worst Trade
“The trouble was, Soros got it wrong.”
This Hasn’t Happened Since 2005
Just how enamored are equity investors with emerging markets relative to the U.S.?Â
Narratives: One Trader Demands To Know ‘Through What Puerile Prism’ You’re Looking
Last week’s, “this is so obvious†has morphed into “not so fast Kemo Sabe†heading to next week’s inevitable, “I knew it all along.”
I Don’t Want To Be Disappointed.
“I am fully committed to working with XIV to get. This. Job. Done.”
What If Stocks Are Right?
“…problems could arise if markets take a look at the U.S. and say “America! Heck yeah!”
Dip-Buyer’s Paradise: Stocks On Track For Best Streak Since May
Time to give some more money to your local Target manager.
‘The Ultimate Guide To Equity Markets’ Or, ‘Because Lines’
“Because lines.”
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