If history is any guide, stocks will do well for “up to 30 months”.
Category: recession
What Does An Inverted Yield Curve Mean For Trump In 2020? History Says This…
“Currently, the curve’s message is rather simple”.
Paul Revere And The Recession Narrative
“The recession is coming, the recession is coming!â€
Recession Obsession: What Causes Downturns And How Vulnerable Is The US?
“Recession obsession” has become a fixture of markets over the past three months…
What Are Stocks And Other Assets Saying About The Odds Of A US Recession?
Remember: anything is better than Larry Kudlow’s “models”.
Egg On Your Face: Fantastic Recession Calls And How To Trade Them
“Despite all the doom and gloom”…
Behold: One Bank’s ‘Fantastic Recession Indicators’
“…and where to find them”.
Maybe Irony Isn’t Dead: If The U.S. ‘Imports’ A Recession, Can We Slap Tariffs On It?
Mind the implications of globalization and interconnected markets.
The Good, The Bad, The Ugly (Vis-Ã -Vis Corporate Balance Sheets, That Is)
It’s not all bad news. But it’s not all good news either.
Good News! The Algos Say The US Economy ‘Is Doing Just Fine’
Ignore the large laser cannon, he’s just here to help!
Should You Buy The Banks Like, Right Now? Yes! No. I Don’t Know, Maybe!
Clients just want to know when the damn recession is coming, ok?
‘We Got No More Liquor!’ These Yield Curve Inversion As A Recession Predictor Probabilities Are Sure To Be A Hit At The Bar
If you’re not talking about the inexorable flattening in the U.S. curve in public settings, well then one wonders what the hell it is you’re saying at the bar when you’re spittin’ game to the waitresses.Â
Albert Edwards Explains Why The S&P Will Eventually Fall Below The 2009 Lows
“In the next recession, I would expect the P/E to bottom at about seven times, a lower low with earnings about 30% lower because of the recession. That would put the S&P lower than the 666 low of the previous crash, versus 2671 Thursday afternoon.”
Rick James And Recession Risk.
Charlie Murphy.
These 250 Investors Are The Most Bearish Since The Crisis
“…nearly half of the survey respondents (46%) are pessimistic about equity markets for the next year, a substantial jump from 32% in 2016 and 19% in 2015.”
The Fed Is About To Cause A Recession, Lacy Hunt Swears
“I’m very doubtful that they’ll be able to unwind the balance sheet to the extent they say they will.”
Goldman: ‘2 Years Is Too Early’
“It is hard not to worry that things are a little ‘too good’. But market timing is tricky.”
Will This Be The Longest Expansion In US History? Spoiler Alert: Pray For Tax Cuts
“Beneath this optimism, however, we are struggling with narrowing profit margins and a flattening yield curve. These factors typically occur at the later stages of a business cycle.”
One Strategist Thinks You Should Ignore The “Prophets Of Doom”
“The Fed’s decision to tighten rates in the face of sluggish growth and limp inflation has encouraged a narrative that they are embarking on a policy error, with the flattening of the yield curve cited as a primary piece of evidence. Upon closer inspection, however, the prognostications of peril appear wide of the mark.”
“Tortured Traders” And Uncertainty: One Trader Weighs In On Spooked Markets
“Yesterday, NY Fed President Dudley said it was very unusual to see stocks rising when there’s so much uncertainty. True, but they’re getting a lot of help on the regulatory and tax side. But there’s no evidence in other markets that everyone has a clear vision of the path ahead.”
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