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Category: Markets

Investors Line Up To Loan Musk More Moon Money

June 23, 2026June 24, 2026

“I’d expect all SpaceX offerings to be heavily oversubscribed,” I wrote earlier this week, editorializing

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6 Comments on Investors Line Up To Loan Musk More Moon Money

Avalanche Anatomy

June 23, 2026June 24, 2026

I won’t harp on this too awful much unless things take a turn for the…

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1 Comment on Avalanche Anatomy

The Wild, Wild East

June 23, 2026June 24, 2026

Can geography make an otherwise apt metaphor a misnomer? Maybe. If so, “Wild, Wild West”

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1 Comment on The Wild, Wild East

News From The Final Frontier

June 22, 2026June 23, 2026

I don’t especially enjoy writing about SpaceX. I went through the motions on IPO day

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7 Comments on News From The Final Frontier

Meanwhile, In South Korea…

June 22, 2026June 23, 2026

I suppose I’d be remiss not to mention a watershed moment from the wild, wild

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The Other Kind Of ‘Boom’

June 21, 2026June 22, 2026

With the (hardly insignificant) caveat that as long as margins remain elevated and corporates sustain

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2 Comments on The Other Kind Of ‘Boom’

Boom Looping

June 20, 2026June 22, 2026

The war with Iran’s likely to cost American taxpayers more than $1 trillion, according to

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3 Comments on Boom Looping

Let’s Not Be Naive About Kevin Warsh

June 18, 2026June 21, 2026

My sense is that analysts are misreading Kevin Warsh. Markets too, perhaps, although you can’t

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8 Comments on Let’s Not Be Naive About Kevin Warsh

Restating An Inflation Mandate Does Not A Hawk Make

June 18, 2026June 20, 2026

I think Kevin Warsh will do everything he possibly can to avoid raising rates. Contrary

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9 Comments on Restating An Inflation Mandate Does Not A Hawk Make

Warsh Revamps Fed Statement, Ditches Rate Guidance, Snubs Dots

June 17, 2026June 18, 2026

Well, it’s official: Kevin Warsh isn’t Kevin Hassett, which is to say Warsh isn’t the

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13 Comments on Warsh Revamps Fed Statement, Ditches Rate Guidance, Snubs Dots

A Bull Market In Watershed Moments

June 15, 2026June 17, 2026

Epochal change is everywhere. Have you noticed that? There’s a bull market in tectonic shifts.

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9 Comments on A Bull Market In Watershed Moments

The Boring Fundamentals

June 15, 2026June 16, 2026

The fundamentals are sound! How many times have I said that recently amid a US

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6 Comments on The Boring Fundamentals

‘Which Warsh?’ What To Expect From The June FOMC

June 14, 2026June 15, 2026

“Which Kevin Warsh will show up” at this week’s FOMC press conference, Bloomberg Economics wondered.

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9 Comments on ‘Which Warsh?’ What To Expect From The June FOMC

Weekly: Is SpaceX IPO (And Elon Musk, Trillionaire) The Top?

June 12, 2026June 15, 2026

I don’t think the bubble — if that’s what it is — bursts before OpenAI

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10 Comments on Weekly: Is SpaceX IPO (And Elon Musk, Trillionaire) The Top?

Moonshot. Literally.

June 12, 2026June 14, 2026

We believe we have identified the largest actionable total addressable market in human history. —

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18 Comments on Moonshot. Literally.

Europe Faces Stagflation As ECB Hikes, Sees Slower Growth

June 11, 2026June 12, 2026

The ECB on Thursday became the first G7 central bank to raise rates as a

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2 Comments on Europe Faces Stagflation As ECB Hikes, Sees Slower Growth

Oracle’s Back In The News

June 11, 2026June 11, 2026

Oracle was back in the news on Thursday. And not just in the news, but

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Trump ‘Loves The Inflation’ As ‘Stealth’ Flows Cap Oil Surge

June 10, 2026June 11, 2026

Not a day goes by. When Donald Trump doesn’t make me chuckle. Dejectedly, disdainfully, despairingly,

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8 Comments on Trump ‘Loves The Inflation’ As ‘Stealth’ Flows Cap Oil Surge

The Largest Profit Boom In History

June 8, 2026June 9, 2026

“Quite simply extraordinary.” That’s how SocGen’s Andrew Lapthorne described the recent inflection in consensus profit

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4 Comments on The Largest Profit Boom In History

‘Take Profits,’ Subramanian Says. ‘Too Many Red Flags.’

June 8, 2026June 9, 2026

Frank Cross: Well, it’s a little late for this kind of feedback. Eliot Loudermilk: That’s

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1 Comment on ‘Take Profits,’ Subramanian Says. ‘Too Many Red Flags.’

The Flows Behind Wall Street’s Bloody Friday

June 8, 2026June 9, 2026

If you were wondering about the specifics of the mechanical flows which “helped” turn a

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8 Comments on The Flows Behind Wall Street’s Bloody Friday

Rate Hikes ‘Kill Success,’ Trump Warns, As Warsh Takes Over

June 7, 2026June 8, 2026

Donald Trump’s already pressuring Kevin Warsh to cut rates. Before losing his patience and storming

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9 Comments on Rate Hikes ‘Kill Success,’ Trump Warns, As Warsh Takes Over

What Just Happened To Stocks…

June 5, 2026June 7, 2026

There are an estimated 3.7 million infants in America. None of them have ever seen

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8 Comments on What Just Happened To Stocks…

Weekly: Roasted Dove

June 5, 2026June 7, 2026

Well, the good news is, the US economy — all Potemkin Village derision aside —

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2 Comments on Weekly: Roasted Dove

Is Corporate Credit A Bubble Too?

June 4, 2026June 5, 2026

Earlier this week, I highlighted a broad measure of aggregate US corporate margins and a

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4 Comments on Is Corporate Credit A Bubble Too?

Is History’s Most Anomalous Stock Rally Justified?

June 3, 2026June 5, 2026

By now, a lot (most?) readers are probably tired of hearing about equities’ purportedly uncanny

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5 Comments on Is History’s Most Anomalous Stock Rally Justified?

On Google’s Massive Equity Raise

June 2, 2026June 3, 2026

Since Oracle kicked off the hyper-scaler borrowing spree in September, one of the hottest debates

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6 Comments on On Google’s Massive Equity Raise

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Monthly Letter

  • The Arbitrageur

Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

The Arbitrageur

October 29, 2026October 29, 2026

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

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