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Category: Markets

Write-Offs.

April 17, 2020April 18, 2020

They told us to “look through” it. And so, we did.

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Investors In Risky ‘Pandemic Bonds’ Just Got Wiped Out

April 17, 2020April 17, 2020

You knew the risks, right?

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3 Comments on Investors In Risky ‘Pandemic Bonds’ Just Got Wiped Out

Fed Cuts Treasury Buying In Half, Money Markets Normalize, And Zoltan Pozsar Asks: Machiavelli Or Bagehot?

April 17, 2020April 17, 2020

“Money is hierarchical…”

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6 Comments on Fed Cuts Treasury Buying In Half, Money Markets Normalize, And Zoltan Pozsar Asks: Machiavelli Or Bagehot?

An EM Crisis Is Not ‘Coming’ – It’s Already Here, One Bank Says

April 17, 2020April 17, 2020

“An EM crisis is not an abstract possibility – it is the current reality”.

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1 Comment on An EM Crisis Is Not ‘Coming’ – It’s Already Here, One Bank Says

There Is No Plan. Big-Cap Tech Is A Bubble. And Nomura’s McElligott On Black Swan ‘Size’ Factor Rout

April 17, 2020April 17, 2020

‘Guidelines’, new bubbles, and potential regime changes out of recessions.

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4 Comments on There Is No Plan. Big-Cap Tech Is A Bubble. And Nomura’s McElligott On Black Swan ‘Size’ Factor Rout

Silver Linings In Abundance.

April 17, 2020April 17, 2020

“…it doesn’t pay to rail that traders are getting it wrong if you don’t like how things go.”

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3 Comments on Silver Linings In Abundance.

China Reports Unprecedented GDP Contraction. And March Activity Data Reveals A Troubling Divergence

April 16, 2020April 17, 2020

It was the first contraction since at least 1992.

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Are Emerging Markets ‘The Next Imminent Disaster’ In Pandemic? Marko Kolanovic Answers

April 16, 2020April 16, 2020

The “next shoe to drop”? Maybe not. And here’s why.

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‘Opening Up America Again’: Here Are Trump’s Multi-Phase State Guidelines For Lifting Virus Lockdown

April 16, 2020April 16, 2020

The plan is loosely named after the president’s campaign slogan.

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5 Comments on ‘Opening Up America Again’: Here Are Trump’s Multi-Phase State Guidelines For Lifting Virus Lockdown

A Decade Of Jobs Just Vanished In America’s ‘Induced Coma’. And Steve Mnuchin Has ‘Bridge Liquidity’

April 16, 2020April 16, 2020

“…if the amount of ‘oxygen’ is insufficient, some parts of the economy will suffer irreparable damage.”

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5 Comments on A Decade Of Jobs Just Vanished In America’s ‘Induced Coma’. And Steve Mnuchin Has ‘Bridge Liquidity’

Albert Edwards: Market ‘Meltdown’ May Return On COVID Deflation Shock

April 16, 2020April 16, 2020

Feel better?

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1 Comment on Albert Edwards: Market ‘Meltdown’ May Return On COVID Deflation Shock

Volatility Saved Wall Street In The First Quarter. Now Comes The Hard Part

April 16, 2020April 16, 2020

“…the same negative impacts [but] without the potential benefit of higher client trading activity.”

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1 Comment on Volatility Saved Wall Street In The First Quarter. Now Comes The Hard Part

22 Million In Four Weeks: America’s Jobless Crisis Spirals

April 16, 2020April 16, 2020

Remember: There are real people behind these numbers.

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8 Comments on 22 Million In Four Weeks: America’s Jobless Crisis Spirals

Philly Fed Gets Rocky

April 16, 2020April 17, 2020

The readily apparent malaise notwithstanding, hope floats.

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Don’t Trade The Data. And Don’t Do ‘That Dinner Party For 20’

April 16, 2020April 16, 2020

“…sobering economic realities are increasingly driving the moves in asset prices”.

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7 Comments on Don’t Trade The Data. And Don’t Do ‘That Dinner Party For 20’

Depressions Used To Mean Something.

April 15, 2020April 16, 2020

“Black & white memories”.

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3 Comments on Depressions Used To Mean Something.

As Banks Provision For Storm, Shoppers Storm Stores For Provisions

April 15, 2020April 15, 2020

Hunkering down, energy exposure and a future without bacon.

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2 Comments on As Banks Provision For Storm, Shoppers Storm Stores For Provisions

‘Black April’ And ‘The Worst Year In The History Of Global Oil Markets’

April 15, 2020April 15, 2020

“…demand in 2020 will fall by 9.3 million barrels a day, erasing almost a decade of growth.”

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oil, OPEC1 Comment on ‘Black April’ And ‘The Worst Year In The History Of Global Oil Markets’

The Fundamentals Are Sound: Industrial Collapse Edition

April 15, 2020April 15, 2020

The market is supposed to “look through” all of this.

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6 Comments on The Fundamentals Are Sound: Industrial Collapse Edition

Behold: Retail Apocalypse And An Unfathomable Drop In Empire Manufacturing

April 15, 2020April 15, 2020

It all falls down.

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3 Comments on Behold: Retail Apocalypse And An Unfathomable Drop In Empire Manufacturing

Goldman’s Traders Ride To Rescue, Offsetting Massive Loss In Investment Arm

April 15, 2020April 15, 2020

“I’m firmly convinced that [Goldman] will emerge well-positioned.”

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Coronavirus Makes Its Mark On Bank Of America As Loss Provisions, Revolver Draws Surge

April 15, 2020April 15, 2020

“Despite increasing our loan loss reserves, we earned $4 billion this quarter.”

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3 Comments on Coronavirus Makes Its Mark On Bank Of America As Loss Provisions, Revolver Draws Surge

China Slashes Key Rate, Setting Stage For Cut To De Facto Benchmark

April 14, 2020April 14, 2020

As GDP looms…

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Howard Marks Has Lots To Say About Bailouts And Moral Hazard. So, I’ll Bite.

April 14, 2020

“Most of us believe in the free-market system as the best allocator of resources.”

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14 Comments on Howard Marks Has Lots To Say About Bailouts And Moral Hazard. So, I’ll Bite.

Harley Bassman: Fed Now Risks ‘Eroding The Basic Foundation Of Capitalism’

April 14, 2020

“It is never different this time.”

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7 Comments on Harley Bassman: Fed Now Risks ‘Eroding The Basic Foundation Of Capitalism’

The Writing Was On The Wall. Pandemic Or No Pandemic, This Recession Was Coming.

April 14, 2020April 14, 2020

“…there have always been shocking triggers behind major economic crises.”

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1 Comment on The Writing Was On The Wall. Pandemic Or No Pandemic, This Recession Was Coming.

‘Since 9/11’: 93% See Global Recession In BofA Survey As Cash Levels Surge To 20-Year High

April 14, 2020

Respondents see a “U-shaped” recovery, not a “V-shaped” miracle. 

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1 Comment on ‘Since 9/11’: 93% See Global Recession In BofA Survey As Cash Levels Surge To 20-Year High

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Monthly Letter

  • To Be Happy

Recent Comments

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Monthly Letters

To Be Happy

September 4, 2026September 4, 2026

Hell Or High Fashion

July 3, 2026July 3, 2026

Escape Artists

May 11, 2026May 11, 2026

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