Hope Floats.

14 thoughts on “Hope Floats.”

1. The American economy since 2005-2006 has been nothing more than a heroine addict looking for it’s next Fed fix. As long as it keeps going up – devoid of fundamentals and the inability cut off the Fed drip – the American people and leadership are willing to look the other way. This way of operating is unsustainable.
   ***Whatever happened to the Tea Party that rose to prominence when the last guy tried stave off the last crisis???

   1. @Dave The tea party was opposed to bailouts for bad behavior. The virus is an externality, so different circumstance.

      That said, with the Fed now nationalizing half the economy, we may be heading for an monetary overdose.

      As I’ve been saying for years, don’t underestimate human creativity to get out of a jam. I fully expect a Bretton Woods II type settlement after this is all over. If global leaders can all act like adults and not steer us into a war, the key items on the table should be fair negotiations wrt:

      Tariffs
      Corporate tax regimes
      Exchange Rates
      Write-off of inter-agency QE debts.

      Whether this is the event that precipitates such a settlement remains to be seen, but if it doesn’t I feel the alternatives.

      -Privateer

      1. Fear the alternatives, that is.

      2. Tea Parties were and are motivated by a visceral hatred of spending on anyone else but themselves.

   2. All the former Tea Party enthusiasts I know are on Facebook this morning clamoring angrily that Nancy Pelosi is holding up their Trump Checks. 🙂

2. ***Whatever happened to the Tea Party that rose to prominence when the last guy tried stave off the last crisis???

   Silenced once pleasing Trump’s base became the overarching GOP priority. Populists don’t care about deficits nor are they always business-friendly.

3. You know what’s gonna be awesome? A 4 Trillion dollar deficit on top of a 30% reduction in tax revenue for 2020, this decade is gonna be GREEAAAATTTT!

4. It’s bounce day, as usual after one/two red days. It’s the pattern after the first week (end of february), where the markets had five red days in a row (then the bounce were only intraday); we have one or two red day, then a geen day, then red again; we never had two green days in a row. Vol. is subdued, and you explained why, so now the swing are 5% instead of 10%. It’s even easy to trade, in a way.
   I guess that we have a date with a bottom at a certain level (could be 2000, 1800, 1600…), but the date is in April so we are going there not in a straight line but bouncing around for a while.

5. Typical bear market rally?

6. USD printing that saves our economy is worth it.

7. Surely, Europe will not go forward with Huawei 5G. This is WW3 and the purpose is economic gain.

   Less ground troops are required to take over financial markets, but some ground troops will still be needed to take over factories and other physical locations where commerce is transacted.

8. See my comment in other post. Rally today based (partially) on false belief of Trump being able to shorten shut down and that economics rather than public health will have the upper hand in policy and strategy. Infection and death rate growing exponentially. How could he shut down with less than 500 deaths then open up as deaths top that figure by a wide margin. I call bullshit and another Trump lie to juice the market. Disappointment coming. Market not touched bottom. Short covering also prevalent today according to Bloomberg. Bide your time.

9. Trimmed a bit into this, added a long term put spread.

10. Love the BoA chart of returns by decade. Analysts and investors cite the old saw the markets always come back, just hang in there, dollar cost average, yada, yada, yada. But in 2 periods, the 1930’s and the 2000’s were long disappointing ones.

    Interesting to note the ’30’s were preceded by the hyper 20’s and the 2000’s had the 1999 dot com boom/crash and the 2008 housing/debt boom/crash.

    Wonder what we might learn from those 2 decades?…;)