“However, just like in the fairy tale, this perfect scenario is unlikely to last.”
Category: fomc
China’s “No Bears Allowed” FX Policy Still In Spotlight Overnight
Ok, so the overnight fireworks were largely confined to early Asian trading. As noted last
Strategist: Go To The Party But For God’s Sake, “Know Where The Nearest Exit Is”
“There’s certainly no guarantee that the party stops any time soon. Maybe I am just a grumpy macro man, but even when attending the party, I am going to make sure I know where the nearest exits are located.”
Fed Minutes: “Soon” Or “Soon”-ish
“Most participants judged that if economic information came in about in line with their expectations, it would soon be appropriate for the Committee to take another step in removing some policy accommodation. A number of participants pointed out that clarification of prospective fiscal and other policy changes would remove one source of uncertainty for the economic outlook.”
Trader: You’re Thinking About The Fed All Wrong
“But a subsequently flatter yield curve shouldn’t be read as signifying a policy misstep.”
Bloodbath: “Nightmarish Picture” For Iron Ore Triggers Metals Mayhem
“Iron ore demand is waning, which, against backdrop of near-record/record inventories and aggressive Chinese and seaborne supply, paints a nightmarish picture”…
Fed Statement Redline, Word Cloud
Take it to your local palm reader.
The Going Rate For Being “A Bloody” Bitch Is Now €100 Billion
Yeah, so it turns out that exiting the European Union is probably going to be
Like Trump, Janet Yellen Is Preparing Ill-Advised “Preemptive Strikes”
“What if progress on core PCE is more limited despite labor market overheating, and the Fed’s dual mandate dilemma persists?”
How The Fed Killed The Fed Trade
“It is often the case that simply identifying a market anomaly can eliminate it as arbitrageurs take advantage of the perceived opportunity.”
Fed, Jobs, & France: Full Week Ahead Preview
Ok, so who’s ready for next week? That’s right, today’s Sunday which means tomorrow is
Dude, Relax: Stanley Fischer Doesn’t See Any Risk Of Another Taper Tantrum
Well, I’m by no means sure that anyone cares on a lazy, post-holiday-weekend Monday, but
Bank Of America Answers Your Questions About The Fed’s Balance Sheet
I am continually amused at the extent which a question comes up – let’s say
Goldman Likes Its Fed Minutes “Mildly Hawkish,” Probability Of June Hike Still 60%
“Overall, the mildly hawkish minutes increase our confidence that balance sheet normalization will be announced this year and are also marginally supportive of a June hike.”
Fed Minutes: Full Breakdown
In the lead up to the release of the Fed minutes, stocks were buoyant as
Albert Edwards Warns: “Fed Tightening Cycles Almost Always End In Recession”
“Collapsing bank lending growth is signalling that something is amiss and the Fed should stop raising rates, but I expect rapidly rising wage inflation will push the Fed into overkill. Fed tightening cycles almost always end in recession and this time will be no exception.”
Lacker Resigns From Fed
“Jeff Lacker, Richmond Fed president, says he is resigning effective today after improperly disclosing confidential Fed information, NY Times said in tweet.”
Trader Warns On Fed: “No One Knows How This Is Going To Work”
“No one knows how this is going to work in practice, let alone what it will do to markets.”
Jobs, Minutes, Xi & The Juiceman: Your Full Week Ahead Preview
Welcome to the first quarter of the rest of your life. Q2 marks markets’ first
What Is The Fed Thinking? One Bank Answers
Q: Is the Fed more hawkish than the market assumes? A: Yes.
As Treasury Yields Fall, Ask Yourself: How Long Are They Going To Let This Go On?
This seems like a good time to remind you that not everyone is buying the
“Politics Vs. Policy”: Deutsche Bank’s Resident Genius Warns Of “Binary Outcomes”
“Depending on the interplay of politics and policy — degree of political resolve and the Fed actions — we could see two distinct paths of resolution of the existing tensions in the mid- or long-run. “
These Are The Fed’s Options To Avoid Another Taper Tantrum
” The 2013 “taper tantrum†also provides a reminder that the impact of balance sheet policy on financial conditions is uncertain and could be larger than our baseline estimate. We doubt the impact would be as large today—in 2013 markets misunderstood tapering as implying earlier rate hikes, whereas today markets would likely view earlier tapering as implying later hikes— but the risk is worth considering”
Sunday Humor? “One Good Reason To Hike Rates Is That It Makes It Easier To Cut Rates”
Boy, oh boy. We’ve really had to recalibrate the way we think about things in
One Bank Warns: “Markets Are Too Sanguine,” Fed Hikes Now More Likely
As noted on Thursday, there’s a tug-of-war developing between two competing narratives on US Treasurys. Here’s
Finally Friday: Oil Looks For Weekly Gain; EM, Euro Surge; Merkel Meets America’s Useful Idiot
Well, it’s quiet out there as an exceptionally eventful week (finally) winds down. As we
A Good Bottle Of Scotch Would Be Nice: Making Sense Of Market Nonsense
Thank God for four months of sobriety because the old Heisenberg would have been at the bottom of a good bottle of scotch right now…
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