“If two-year Treasury yields close above 1.3% but 10-year yields linger below 2.5%, then a hike is expected but it’s being perceived as a potential policy mistake. If we close above both levels, it’s the reflation trade, baby.”
Category: fed
“All Eyez On Me”: Yellen, Fischer Are Up To Bat
It kind of feels like everyone is ready to get this week on the books.
“The Data Doesn’t Even Matter”
So just a few minutes ago, I said that “basically, the message is that unless
Get This Through Your Damn ‘Brain’ard
So basically, the message is that unless the S&P were to suddenly collapse, the Fed
As March Odds Top 80%, One Bank Says Not So Fast
“That Wells Fargo note is looking pretty prescient right now” – said no one, anywhere ever. Until now.
“Fairly Soon” Means “Fairly Soon”: March Odds Spike On Spate Of Super Aggressive Fedspeak
As you might have noticed, the reflation narrative got a boost after hours when comments from
Markets Frozen As Batsh*t Crazy Trump Speech Awaited
It’s all quiet on the Western and Eastern fronts as the market sits in suspended
I Told You So: “Handicapping Political Risk” Is The New “Central-Bank Watching”
“Perhaps it’s emblematic of the times: Central-bank watching is passé, while handicapping political risk is en vogue.”
Reflation Frustration
This is probably a decent time to start asking yourself if the narrative still makes
Dollar Pulled Between Minutes And Mnuchin, Crude Hopes For Bullish EIA Print
Ok so it’s Thursday morning and everyone has generally come around to what I said
No, Those Fed Minutes Were Not Hawkish
Following the release of the latest Fed Minutes, I was exceedingly amused to watch as seemingly every commentator one cared to (virtually) consult tried to put a hawkish spin on things. That is of course consistent with what Bloomberg’s Richard Breslow described overnight as a “hawkish retelling” of an otherwise dovish statement.
Confusion In The Air After Fed Minutes
FOMC TO START BALANCE SHEET DEBATE AT UPCOMING MEETINGS
MOST FED OFFICIALS JUDGED GRADUAL RATE HIKE PACE APPROPRIATE
FOMC SEES DOWNSIDE RISK FROM STRONG DOLLAR
Glass Half-Full Or Half-Empty? Previewing Today’s Big Event
“It’s unclear to me how we get from the dovish statement released three weeks ago to a hawkish retelling of the event. But that’s what seems to be on people’s minds.”
“Le” Screwed: Markets Nervous Ahead Of Fed Minutes As Bookies Put Le Pen’s Chances Even With Rivals
“Good morning.” And also: “I told you so.” This whole idea that because Marine Le
“Run-For-Your-Life Affair” Continues In France, Fed’s Mester Hints At Hikes, US Vacations
“This weekend was an all-out, run-for-your-life affair.” That’s from Yves-Marie Cann, head of political studies at
Here’s What’s Coming Up For Markets
“Don’t be fooled by the the holiday-shortened trading week in the US. Next week promises to give investors plenty to watch, including the Greek bailout, minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting, Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s testimony, retail earnings and Warren Buffett’s annual letter.”
Did The Market Misread The Most Important Event Of The Week?
So we got a hawkish Yellen on Capitol Hill. Or did we?
The Week That Was: “The Hardest Thing To Do Is Justify Hedging”
Well, it’s been one hell of a week. We started on a sugar high thanks
“Buridan’s Ass, Meet Scylla And Charybdis”
As I noted earlier on Friday, this week provided nothing in the way of clarity
Entire World Scrambles To Figure Out Why The Hell The Dollar Isn’t Stronger On Thursday
So what gives? Well, probably not a lot. It could just be everyone is taking a breather. But, in a testament to Nassim Taleb’s “narrative fallacy” argument, we have an overwhelming tendency to ascribe “causes” where there are none.
“Bigly”: Reflation Is Back As Dollar Rises, Global Stocks Rally, Oil Eyes EIA Data
Apparently, reports of the reflation meme’s demise were greatly exaggerated. It wasn’t too long ago
That Was “Easily The Most Hawkish” Yellen We’ve Ever Seen
“Yellen’s remarks in Senate testimony were the trigger point for a market that may have been short dollars, a trader in London said, while Amherst Pierpont’s Stephen Stanley described them as ‘easily the most hawkish message’ that she has delivered as Fed chair.”
Janet Yellen Has A Valentine For You
As noted earlier this morning, Valentine’s Day is all about Janet Yellen on Capitol Hill. Although
Yellen Yellin’ On Capitol Hill, Dollar Slumps, Toshiba Turmoils, China PPI, German GDP: Enough Said
Ok, so there was actually quite a bit going on overnight, but needless to say,
Previewing A “Massacre”: A Look Ahead To Yellen’s Congressional Testimony
On Thursday, I brought you the latest commentary from SocGen’s incorrigible bear Albert Edwards who
Albert Edwards Thinks Maybe Yellen Will Channel Capone, “Massacre” Markets With “Machine Gun” In Valentine’s Day Testimony
“I wonder if the ever cooing Yellen dove turns up on the day holding flowers in her beak, or will a machine gun be brandished in the same way it was on that fateful day in 1929″…
Wall Street Bailout Architect Goes Full Donald Trump, Uses Blog Post To Explain Why Fed Is On Hold
Remember Neel “Crazy Eyez” Kashkari? He was a prominent character in Hank Paulson’s “GE is
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