If you were following along last week, then you already know what to look for
Category: fed
“Where It All Goes Wrong”
” Ultimately it all depends on inflation and growth but whether or not these are structurally driven or endogenous to the Fed’s and other central banks policy rhetoric remains to be seen. We remain skeptical!”
One Trader Doesn’t Like Your “Hyperbole,” But He’ll Let It Slide As Long As You Don’t Mistake A Passing Pigeon For “Paree”
“It’s been a week filled with hyperbole. Trial balloons dressed up as pre-commitments. A little volatility described in cataclysmic terms and compared to jarring historical market upsets.”
Trader: “Black Swan Events Happen A Lot More Often Than They’re Supposed To”
“The Fed has enjoyed free-ridership of doing so while everyone else is still printing away. This has meant that financial market conditions have taken it wholly in stride. To assert that this will be the case when everyone else join is making a big assumption about the efficacy of the cure.”
About That Fed “Policy Mistake”…
“The thesis that the Fed has made a policy error would seem to imply two claims: that the Fed’s hawkish stance has led to excessive tightening in financial conditions, and that this in turn has caused the economy to slow more than intended. Neither of these has happened.”
Trader Delivers Celebratory Warning: “We’re About To Have A Two-Way Market Again”
“It was no small feat. And the fact that it was very much a global phenomenon makes it all the more significant. Investors should have been jolted into the realization that we just might be about to enjoy the healthy benefits of a two-way market.”
Euro Surges On Draghi’s “Three Messages,” Dollar Eyes Janet, Yuan “Suddenly” Jumps
Boy, I’ll tell you what, if you’re a central banker and you’re going to say
Is A “Stubbornly Hawkish” Fed Trying To Fucking Kill Us, Or What?
“Yet, unfazed by the roll-over in activity and inflation and lower growth expectations, the Fed and the PBOC are sticking to a stubbornly hawkish path. Tighter money at a time of weaker activity poses deflationary risks and a spill-over into the real economy.”
The Third Mandate Is Official – And “It’s Stunning” That You Don’t See It
“This morning, at a speech at the BIS Annual General Meeting, Bill Dudley came right out and stated unequivocally that the Federal Reserve was targeting financial conditions.”
Gold Flash Crashes, “Jubilant” Germans, And Bank Bailouts
Well, gold plunged $18 in seconds on surging volume (18k contracts in a one-minute window)
When Doves Cry: Kocherlakota Is Worried That The Fed Has Abandoned You
Allison Nathan: Narayana, if inflation fails to accelerate from here, is there anything that would convince you that the Fed should get more hawkish?
Narayana Kocherlakota: No.
Barclays Sarcastically Asks: “What Could Possibly Go Wrong?”
“The reality is that there are many risks on the horizon as we write”…
A Contrarian View On The Next Recession Consistent With Historical Precedent
“The most frequent contributors to modern recessions have been monetary policy tightening and oil price shocks, with the former in response to inflation that often gained momentum from the latter.”
Trader: “You Really Shouldn’t Make It Up As You Go Along”
“They don’t have to be governed only by the lowest common denominator. Nor forever ignore the negative externalities of oppressively low global rates and how they further suppress yields and encourage profligate risk-taking.”
Guest Post: The Reverse Tepper Moment
“In the current environment, we have the opposite situation. Either the economy rolls over (which should be bad for stocks), or it bounces, at which point the Federal Reserve continues on its tightening path (which could also be bad for stocks).”
One Trader Wishes You Would Get Your Damn Dollar Story Straight
“Wasn’t it only last week that everyone was telling us that the market was fading the FOMC’s ‘policy error?'”
Dollar Is Happy, Pound Is Sad, And There’s Some Yuan Shenanigans Afoot
It’s about Dudley for the dollar which rose to a three-week high versus the yen
SocGen: This Is The “Real Test For The Party Mood”
“Whether the Fed is raising rates too fast given their inflation mandate or not, they are raising them too slowly to contain asset price inflation. And while the FX market was getting a bit nervous, with falls for the RUB, ZAR and the TRY yesterday, the emerging bond market community was getting excited about 100-year, dollar -denominated debt issued by Argentina.”
BofAML’s Stark Warning: “Sell Before It’s Too Late”
“Is it possible that the Fed has become concerned about the recent surge in the equity market, especially tech stocks that has been feeding off low interest rates and low volatility?”
One Analyst Is “Increasingly Grouchy” About The Whole “Hawkish Hike” Thing
“Any day now, I’ll start denying that it was actually a hike at all.”
One Strategist Thinks You Should Ignore The “Prophets Of Doom”
“The Fed’s decision to tighten rates in the face of sluggish growth and limp inflation has encouraged a narrative that they are embarking on a policy error, with the flattening of the yield curve cited as a primary piece of evidence. Upon closer inspection, however, the prognostications of peril appear wide of the mark.”
“Don’t Gasp”: One Trader Has Had Enough Of Your Bullshit For One Week
It’s Friday and by this point in the week, former FX trader Richard Breslow is
“Unidentified” Dong: China Will Not Take Fed Hike “Lightly”
“And the pace is getting faster and faster. “
A 12-Chart Visual Tour Of The June Fed Statement
Here we are, one day after the Fed and people are still trying to decide
Trader: We’re Playing Tug-Of-War With A Starfish And There’s A “Reptilian Aura” To It
“Anyone who claims to know how this populism, saber-rattling and scandals will play out is fooling you as well as themselves.”
The Day After: Yellen’s Big Mistake
So here we are, the day after a Fed hike that was supposed to (and
Traders, Analysts “A Bit Surprised” Yellen Wasn’t More Dovish
“This has apparently come as a bit of a surprise to a market that had greeted this morning’s CPI report as potentially a ‘game changer.â€
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