“Perhaps it’s emblematic of the times: Central-bank watching is passé, while handicapping political risk is en vogue.”
Category: europe
Lunatic Le Pen “Cannot Possibly” Win – But Don’t Tell VSTOXX Futures
In other words, the market is trying to learn from its mistakes. We were caught off guard by the Brexit vote and Trump’s victory, so now, we’re seeing relatively large moves as traders’ collective desire to avoid the pitfalls of underestimating the probability of a tail event is manifest in the amplification of tiny blips in poll numbers.
Chart Check: Brexit Versus Le Pen
Is Le Pen “mightier” than … err… Le Brexit?
“Frexit”: Bank Runs, Deposit Blocks, Capital Controls. Any Questions?
“We have some experience in this domain: the example of Greece in the summer of 2015. That is not a happy precedent.”
Spot The Dumb Money
You know what they say…
“Has The Whole World Gone Crazy?!” Part Deux
For the hundredth time: “What do rates know that credit doesn’t?”
Holy “Schatz”
If you’re long equities, it is incumbent upon you to explain this to yourself…
Reflation Frustration
This is probably a decent time to start asking yourself if the narrative still makes
Chart Check (“Just How Anti-Euro Are You?”)
You’d be forgiven for thinking that the EU and the EMU are quickly becoming institutional
As French Election Risk Plunges, One Heisenberg Reader Called It
Wax on, wax off. Risk on, risk off. I said it on Sunday: this week
Heisenberg Challenge: Spot The Moment The French Election Changed Course
I said this week would be all about French politics and by God, the market hasn’t disappointed…
“Le” Screwed: Markets Nervous Ahead Of Fed Minutes As Bookies Put Le Pen’s Chances Even With Rivals
“Good morning.” And also: “I told you so.” This whole idea that because Marine Le
Crazy Vs. Crazy: Are Things Really More “Uncertain” In Europe Than They Are In The US?
How can a market “take into consideration all potential future events”? Obviously it can’t. That’s absurd. That said, stocks should be expected to discount what we might call “known unknowns.” That is, events that we know are likely to cause turbulence but that also admit of some indeterminacy regarding outcomes. Things that would fall into that category include the French elections and US tax reform.
Chart Check: Politics At Work
This is what happens when political risk trumps economic data…
Dollar On A Harker High, European Economy Hums Despite Political Turmoil, Kuroda Continues To Confuse
Well, that escalated quickly. It wasn’t hard to predict what would set the tone overnight.
“Listen! Do You Smell Something?” Canaries In The Coal Mine
“So on a morning of relative calm with S&P 500 futures trading at all-time highs, I thought I’d take the opportunity to focus on a few potential canaries in the coal mine of risk-on to watch.”
“Run-For-Your-Life Affair” Continues In France, Fed’s Mester Hints At Hikes, US Vacations
“This weekend was an all-out, run-for-your-life affair.” That’s from Yves-Marie Cann, head of political studies at
Here’s What’s Coming Up For Markets
“Don’t be fooled by the the holiday-shortened trading week in the US. Next week promises to give investors plenty to watch, including the Greek bailout, minutes of the Federal Reserve’s last meeting, Bank of England governor Mark Carney’s testimony, retail earnings and Warren Buffett’s annual letter.”
“Euro Exit Would Ruin France,” More Russian Hacking, And Other Fun Overnight News
“Exiting the euro, presidential candidate Marine Le Pen’s project, would ruin France, Bruno Le Maire, adviser of French Republican candidate Francois Fillon, says on Europe 1 radio.”
“Has The Whole World Gone Crazy?!”
“Has the whole world gone crazy?! Am I the only one around here who gives a sh*t about the rules?!”
The Week That Was: “The Hardest Thing To Do Is Justify Hedging”
Well, it’s been one hell of a week. We started on a sugar high thanks
A French Kiss Leaves Global Risk Queasy On Friday
If you were looking for clarity with regard to President Donald Trump’s policies or for any kind
Entire World Scrambles To Figure Out Why The Hell The Dollar Isn’t Stronger On Thursday
So what gives? Well, probably not a lot. It could just be everyone is taking a breather. But, in a testament to Nassim Taleb’s “narrative fallacy” argument, we have an overwhelming tendency to ascribe “causes” where there are none.
Holy Sh*t Chart Of The Day
This may be “familiar behavior for the credit market”, but I can’t help but flag this as a pretty alarming indicator regarding the credit risk surrounding the upcoming French elections.
Goldman: Trump Threatens Europe With Strongman “Bilateral World Order”
So you know, the percentage of the European population that’s still sane (and that’s an ever dwindling number apparently) would have really appreciated it if Trump would have just been satisfied with the damage he’s already done rather than piling it on by dispatching Peter Navarro to weigh in on the legitimacy of the common currency.
Yellen Yellin’ On Capitol Hill, Dollar Slumps, Toshiba Turmoils, China PPI, German GDP: Enough Said
Ok, so there was actually quite a bit going on overnight, but needless to say,
Poetic Justice? Europe “Celebrates” 25 Years Of Integration With Descent Into Chaos
Proponents of the nationalistic fervor currently spreading across Europe will likely find some poetic justice in the fact that the dissolution of the EU could ultimately unfold just as the bloc celebrates a milestone in time.
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