“Melenchon now has a genuine chance of reaching the second round and, in purely markets terms, he would be as bad, if not worse, for French and European assets. Crucially, polls suggest that if Emmanuel Macron stumbles, the leftist would beat both Le Pen and Francois Fillon in a second-round runoff.”
Category: euro
“OPEC Has A Deal!” Buy Euros! Wait, There’s A French Election? Welcome To Thursday.
Let’s start with oil real quick, because there are some notable headlines on Thursday morning.
Chart Of The Day: “It’s Now Higher Than Brexit And Lehman”
“It is now higher than during Brexit, the Euro-area crisis and GFC levels which means demand for equity hedges has increased materially relative to supply among investors.”
A “Soggy” Bottom Morning
“Soggy US housing starts and soggy industrial production data just reinforced the soggy message from last week’s figures, and with it the growing sense that the inflation peak is earlier and lower than many feared.”
SocGen’s Kit Juckes Is “Back From The Alps”: Here’s His Quick Pocket Guide To An Uncertain Market
The tough thing about a market dominated by geopolitical concerns is that geopolitics is country- or at least region-specific. There’s nuance, idiosyncrasies, thousands of years of history peculiar to this country or that, religious undercurrents, etc., etc. You have to take all of that into account when trying to make sense of markets in the context of multiple geopolitical powder kegs.
“Coiled Springs,” Trump The Rates Strategist, And “The Elephant In The Room”
“One question we’ve pondered is whether the best post-election trade is in bond-land or FX”…
Is This Over Yet? “If Ever I Needed A Long Weekend, It’s Right Now”
“The hardest challenge of the day may well be not clock- watching. But while you may have been stopped out more than once this week at least you won’t have tenuous positions when they release big numbers tomorrow with the market shut.”
“Something Happened After The Crisis” Deutsche Bank Settles An Important Debate
“Even more striking, however, is the twisting in the curve: the euro became far more sensitive to the very front-end of the curve”…
“Hold My Beer While I Meet Xi.” And Everything Else You Need To Know On Thursday
It’s Thursday, which means today’s Donald Trump gets to look the Donald Trump who refused to
Spot The Moment Mario Draghi Opened His Mouth
Thursday morning chart challenge…
Watch Those Minutes. ADP Ahoy! Le Pen Loses Her Sh*t. And More On A Fun Wednesday
“Let’s not forget where we’re coming from,†he shouted, struggling to be heard over his rival. “You have been repeating the same lies for 40 years — those your father used to tell.â€
Currency Craziness, Car Carnage, Le Pen Jitters: Welcome To Tuesday, Dammit
Hitting the ground running on Tuesday it was an interesting overnight session. For one thing,
Boom! It’s Monday. Here’s What Happened While You Were Asleep
Well, it’s Monday. Welcome to Q2. Things were relatively subdued in the overnight session, as
It’s The End Of The Quarter, Do You Know Where Your Money Is?
“While the Bloomberg Dollar index edged up to the highest level in more than a week on Friday as supporting month-end flows outweighed profit-taking interest after yesterday’s rally, this is still on track to be the worst quarter in a year for the index. By contrast, gold is heading for its best quarter in a year.”
Chart Of The Day: The ECB Is Running Out Of Excuses
” The broad based risk-on, over the past couple of weeks across European risk assets, has increased risks that should the political uncertainty ease post the French elections, rate hike newsflow will continue to grow.”
It’s Falling Apart: Reflation Trade Shrivels Up And Dies As Markets Sour On Risk
Well, the dollar is under pressure on Monday, just as we said it would be
Mind The Cross-Atlantic “Gaps”: Your Week Ahead Preview
Earlier, we talked a bit about Donald Trump’s waning political capital and the extent to
“Trump’s Political Capital Is Getting Consumed”: One Simple Trade Idea For The Week Ahead
Think about the events that transpired over the last two weeks. Now think about them
“Another Plank” Supporting The Dollar Has Been Removed
With the broad dollar sinking… …and the euro hitting six week highs (well on its
Euro Jumps To 6-Week High After Lunatic Loses Key Debate
We start Tuesday in Europe in the aftermath of the closely watched presidential debate at
It’s Quiet Out There: G-20 Leaves Markets Feeling “Damp And Grey”
It feels quiet out there. Maybe a little too quiet. There’s plenty of G-20 banter
Spot The Moment “Lunatic Populist President Risk” Rose This Morning
Remember what we said last night about having to think twelve steps ahead and how
Finally Friday: Oil Looks For Weekly Gain; EM, Euro Surge; Merkel Meets America’s Useful Idiot
Well, it’s quiet out there as an exceptionally eventful week (finally) winds down. As we
A Good Bottle Of Scotch Would Be Nice: Making Sense Of Market Nonsense
Thank God for four months of sobriety because the old Heisenberg would have been at the bottom of a good bottle of scotch right now…
Here’s What To Expect If Things Go “Wrong” In France
Well here we are, one day on following a setback for European populism, and as
Buy It All, Buy It All Right Now: European Stocks Soar In “Never Geert” Rally
Europe is in rally mode. Plain. And. Simply. Following Geert Wilders’ defeat in the Dutch
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