“Clarity around the next Fed chair, and hence the rate path, should provide a boost to global assets, particularly emerging markets.”
Category: emerging markets
One Strategist Asks: ‘Dude, Where’s The Contagion?’
“Successful trading depends on a delicate balancing act between confidence and fear. If you stray off the path, it’s best to take a few minutes to get your bearings before rushing headlong again.”
One Bank’s Clients Know Exactly What To Do In The Event Of A Vicious Carry Trade Unwind…
And the punchline: if that plays out, there’s only one thing to do…
‘Believe Me.’
What could go wrong?
‘Keep One Eye On Left Field’: Here Are The Most Important Q4 Market Themes
“As always, keep one eye on left field for the “unknown unknown” that could shift the market’s thinking.”
‘Bearishness Comes At You Pretty Fast’
“The difference this time is that those macro pressures are being combined with a broad array of idiosyncratic negatives.”
Dollar On The Move, EM Under Pressure As Fed Holds Firm On Trajectory
Dollar bears on the back foot all of the sudden…
This Hasn’t Happened Since Brexit
Sustainable? Probably not.
‘Over-Analysis’ Is Going To Keep You From Making 230% On EM Stocks – But That’s Your Problem
“Can’t be distracted with what’s goin’ on with the war, or what’s wrong with the economy – stop worrying about that!”…
Let the bull market do its job.Â
‘Investors May Have Wandered Into A Casino Without Realizing It’
So one hopes investors are cognizant of the possibility that they are chasing an EM FX rally more than they are “investing” in emerging markets with this trade.
EM’s Best Run Since 2004 Continues As Jobs Number Greenlights ‘Carry’ On
That’s all fine and good and we wish anyone who’s still in this trade the best, but…
This Hasn’t Happened Since 2005
Just how enamored are equity investors with emerging markets relative to the U.S.?Â
The Risks For This Asset Class Are Asymmetrically Skewed To The Downside
Given that the weaker dollar and a slow pace of policy normalization are key pillars of support for emerging markets, and given that the same thing that’s weighing on the dollar (Donald Trump) is also behind fleeting risk-off moves, it makes sense that EM would outperform USD HY. But…
Is Anyone Worried About Emerging Market Stocks Sitting At 3-Year Highs?
…this is another one of those scenarios where everyone seems to be pretty damn sure that nothing can go wrong.Â
To Mongolia And Beyond
I found you some yield…
This Hasn’t Happened In 22 Weeks…
Turning point?
The Dirty Little Secret Behind The EM Rally…
“However, below the surface”…
How Is This Even Legal? EM Debt Fund Cash Balances Hit 4-Year Lows
“…that makes it harder for fund managers to avoid selling securities if volatility jumps from record lows and redemptions increase.”
By This Measure, Thursday Was A ‘Black Monday’
But you know what they say: “it’s probably nothing.”
As ‘Nuclear’ Story Count Goes Nuclear, One Trader Says Look Out Below In EM
“Investors’ focus becomes dominated by risk-management and the profit-and-loss bottom line. Everything else is secondary.”
Popular Emerging Market ETF Has Worst Day Since December Fed Hike
Looks like some folks have an “emerging” problem on their hands…
This Top Performing Asset Should Keep Performing: Goldman
So the only question here is this: “what does Goldman think?”Â
Not really, but in case that is a question you were asking yourself…
‘ETFs Will Be Disproportionally Influential In Selloffs’: BofAML On EM Bond Funds
“ETFs are likely to be disproportionally influential during market selloffs given their limited cash levels to absorb outflows and a more opportunistic investor base.”
4 Tail Risk Hedges For A Sudden Vol. Spike Or, ‘The Chevy Cavalier Trade’
“There are many potential catalysts that could cause large re-pricing of risk almost instantaneously.”
‘These Are The Most Illiquid Conditions I Have Ever Seen’: One CIO Warns On EM ETFs
“In 2017, with the absence of banks providing liquidity, who will facilitate the flows for the one-day ETFs and mutual funds?”
‘The Impulses Turn Negative’: Goldman Warns On Emerging Markets
“Hence, despite the very supportive Q1 data, the recent moderation (which affects the data over the next six months) suggests that the impulse to EM growth should switch from a ‘strong positive’ in 1H 2017 to a ‘soft negative’ in 2H 2017.”
Stocks Fly To Records, Global Risk Rally Continues As Bad Data, ‘Good’ Yellen Keep Hope Alive
The message is loud and fucking clear: the vol. seller’s/ carry trader’s paradise and the risk party that’s made every homegamer with some SPY and QQQ look like a guru for the past eight years depends on DM central bankers staying some modicum of dovish. And on that score, bad data helps.
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