“Oil can be an issue this summer if prices fall below $40/bbl, but we are more worried about…”
Category: credit
Barclays Sarcastically Asks: “What Could Possibly Go Wrong?”
“The reality is that there are many risks on the horizon as we write”…
This Is The “Most Vulnerable” Index In Credit To Macro Risk
“Quite in contrast to the past couple of years, this index now appears to be the most vulnerable to macro risks compared to other benchmarks in credit.”
“Hakuna Matata”?
“In our opinion, this is not dangerous market complacency but a reflection of an abnormally tranquil macro environment, with a benign economic outlook, very supportive financial conditions, and lower political risks”…
Chart Of The Day: Asset Prices In The Trump Era
See if you can spot what’s still hanging on for dear life at record highs/tights despite lackluster incoming data and central bank tightening…
While You Were Watching The VIX, Credit Did This…
“While the collapse of the VIX to multi-decade lows has garnered headlines recently, implied volatilities on US and European credit indices have quietly reached new lows as well. The one-month at-the-money implied volatilities on US and European credit indices have all collapsed to their tightest levels since 2008.”
And Credit Investors’ Biggest Worry Is…
Spoiler alert.
Just 3 Charts…
Spot the odd one out…
BofAML: “Warning: If US Rates Market Is Right, Everything Else Is Mispriced”
“The fact that UST 10y rates have traded in a very tight range for the last two months has been interpreted as a reassuring signal for carry trades everywhere. In fact it should be a warning signal.”
“As The Beast Sleeps, The Tendency Is Toward Complacency”
“Yet there are indications that the marketplace is growing comfortable, perhaps too comfortable, with the calm.”
“If VIX Can Do It…” – One Bank Asks If IG Credit Is A Sure Bet “Cheap Short”
“Has the so-called floor for IG risen since 2014? And if it has, does it represent a cheap short at these levels?”
Wednesday’s Equity Bloodbath Produced A 94th Percentile Moment
“The outperformance has only been greater in 6% of the sessions in two years.”
Trader: What You’ve Seen Unwound Is “Just The Tip Of The Iceberg”
“It’s vital, therefore, to remind yourself that these moves, while portrayed as dramatic, represent only the very tip of the iceberg of positions built up over a very long period of time and in massive size.”
“Max Long Liquidity,” A “Bonanza,” & The Coolest Thing You’ll Read On Monday
“Liquidity and tight bid/offers in the CDS index market has been pivotal for a number of investors to use the CDS product as a risk allocation tool, rather than a hedging tool that has been traditionally used.”
Just One Quick Chart
Just a Tuesday quickie.
Goldman Has A “Compelling” Trade Idea, So Listen Up
“For investors looking for a macro hedge, credit offers more attractive hedging opportunities. For investors adding to bullish positions, equity offers more attractive buying opportunities.”
Chart Check: Q1’s Outperformers & Underperformers
Q1 – in aesthetically pleasing hues of blue.
Goldman: Q1 “Was A Quarter To Own Risk” – Here’s What Comes Next
“Which of these divergences will hold going forward?”
Did Credit Investors Just Give Up On The Trump Agenda?
A couple of days ago in “One Word And One Word Only: ‘Duration’,” we noted
Dear Donald Trump: Explain This Chart
“There is another worry on the horizon”…
This Is What Happens When Americans Don’t Get Their Tax Refunds
I think it’s safe to say we all knew that Americans aren’t exactly in the
Chart Check: See No Evil…
What political uncertainty?
An Eerie Parallel
“This ‘treading water’ spread action for the credit market is in pretty sharp contrast to an equity market that has been rallying to new all time highs”…
The “Scariest Chart In The World”
One thing everyone wants to know: with all the geopolitical uncertainty out there, why is the
No Liquidity, No Cash, No Fun
Oh, and here’s the worst part: you see how there’s no market for these bonds? Well when people start selling the ETFs, you’d better hope fund managers aren’t depending on cash balances to meet redemptions, because…
Liquidity Lapse: Don’t Say You Weren’t Warned
The liquidity picture for corporate cash bonds is looking increasingly ugly.
Thursday Chart Check (Smell Test Edition)
What happens when this mean reverts?
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